Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

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Heppenheimer

Heppenheimer

Well-Known Member
Disstevefan1 said:
I just don't see the value in testing especially when some of the tests are 50% accurate and we have known for a year we are in a pandemic. In my opinion, the money is better spent in the hospitals and vaccines, but Joey is the expert now so....
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Or at least, he carefully considers what the experts are saying, rather than demanding they toe the company line(lies).
 
GoofGoof

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Kevin_W said:
Very little of this makes sense. Yesterday, my governor said our ~40% distribution was actually 72% because of Federal holdbacks. But there are no Federal holdbacks?
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I think what I read is that they had already started releasing the federal reserve before it was officially announced. Based on the announcement made, many states were expecting a surge of doses delivered next week, but the numbers forecast for delivery next week already included any left in reserve.
 
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DCBaker

Premium Member
Current Florida vaccine report -

Screen Shot 2021-01-15 at 12.50.47 PM.png

Screen Shot 2021-01-15 at 12.50.57 PM.png
 
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oceanbreeze77

Well-Known Member
DCBaker said:
"When Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar announced this week that the federal government would begin releasing coronavirus vaccine doses held in reserve for second shots, no such reserve existed, according to state and federal officials briefed on distribution plans. The Trump administration had already begun shipping out what was available beginning at the end of December, taking second doses directly off the manufacturing line.

Now, health officials across the country who had anticipated their extremely limited vaccine supply as much as doubling beginning next week are confronting the reality that their allocations will not immediately increase, dashing hopes of dramatically expanding eligibility for millions of elderly people and those with high-risk medical conditions. Health officials in some cities and states were informed in recent days about the reality of the situation, while others are still in the dark.

Because both of the vaccines authorized for emergency use in the United States are two-dose regimens, the Trump administration’s initial policy was to hold back second doses to protect against the possibility of manufacturing disruptions. But that approach shifted in recent weeks, according to the officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the matter. The result is that next week’s allocations will remain flat."

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I have no more words to express my anger.
 
correcaminos

correcaminos

Well-Known Member
GoofGoof said:
Last I saw is Moderna can’t fill their 12-17 trial. Looking for 3,000 participants and have less than 1,000 signed up. I believe Pfizer is full now for 12-15 year olds and expecting results in a few months. They plan to start trials on younger kids in the Spring. Hopefully that means March and not May. The overall goal is to have at least middle and high school age kids done before the next school year. I hope they can also get elementary school kids done too. I would sign my kids up for the trials, but the closest Moderna site is Syracuse which is really far and really cold this time of year. If they opened a site in Philly my 13 year old said he’d sign up...he found out you get paid ;):greedy::greedy::greedy:
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Yes Pfizer is doing teens (well 12yo) but none have all children - prepubescent to be specific. Sorry I did not qualify that. My own 13yo declined the Pfizer trial - not that I blame him. I'll edit to reflect what I meant. My whole point was we cannot expect kids before adults as a whole. Middle school entails 10 or 11 year olds as well. That's not going to happen IMO in the timeline you said they are pushing for.
 
seabreezept813

seabreezept813

Well-Known Member
GoofGoof said:
Last I saw is Moderna can’t fill their 12-17 trial. Looking for 3,000 participants and have less than 1,000 signed up. I believe Pfizer is full now for 12-15 year olds and expecting results in a few months. They plan to start trials on younger kids in the Spring. Hopefully that means March and not May. The overall goal is to have at least middle and high school age kids done before the next school year. I hope they can also get elementary school kids done too. I would sign my kids up for the trials, but the closest Moderna site is Syracuse which is really far and really cold this time of year. If they opened a site in Philly my 13 year old said he’d sign up...he found out you get paid ;):greedy::greedy::greedy:
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Agreed. I definitely see the middle-teenage set vaccinated by next school year. While very young kiddos might not be a priority, one of my coworkers couldn't come back to work this year because her son has some type of immune problem--he gets a severe pneumonia yearly, etc. There will definitely be incentive to protect vulnerable kids and get them back to school. I know that my husband and I said that we'd feel safe once we are vaccinated doing things with our girls--my stepdaughter is about to be 17 ( and will get vaccinated eventually) and toddler is 2. But they are both very healthy, I imagine many families won't be at this comfort level right away.
 
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Disney Experience

Well-Known Member
GoofGoof said:
I think there probably is a breaking point. I don’t know if it’s 70 or 80 or 90 where people say they would rather wait. The U.K. approved the Oxford vaccine which was 70% in the trial on average. That should give us some idea how the mass public is thinking. If the vaccine effectiveness is too low it may not help us reach herd immunity, but 70%+ is probably going to get it done. If it’s 50-70% that may not be as helpful unless we get 90%+ vaccinated. The less effective the vaccine the more people we need and we know there’s a certain number of people who won’t get it no matter what.

From a public health prospective getting people a vaccine that’s 80% effective is what‘s best rather than have them wait for a more effective one. This isn’t about “fair” or personal gain, it’s about reaching herd immunity as fast as possible. I know people will do what they want anyway even if it’s not in the best interest of the greater good (that was reinforced heavily this past year). For anyone who wants to wait for the “better” vaccine I hope they aren’t the same people screaming about the economy all year and the poor workers. Delaying vaccinations prolongs the recession and keeps more people unemployed.

I am not opposed to tying and future stimulus money to vaccinations. You want the check, you get the shot. That may be the most efficient way to motivate people to get the shot. Carrot vs stick. You could also require proof of vaccination to be allowed to do certain things but I feel that may backfire some and you could get people who resist just becuae the government is making them do something. See mask mandates.
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Classic formula reworked to determine minimum R0 and or Efficacy needed given a % vaccinated. I did not need my two years of calculus I had, just some high school algebra: ( just select values for the variable on the right side of the equation.
(%vaccinated is the minimum % of population that must be vaccinated)

%vaccinated=(1-1/R0)/efficacy
R0=-1/(%vaccinated*efficacy-100%)
efficacy=(1-1/R0)/%vaccinated

So if Sinovac was the only vaccine people got vaccinated with and had an efficacy of 56% what is the maximum R0 of the viral disease that would still achieve herd immunity?
R0=-1/(%vaccinated*efficacy-100%)
R0=~1/(100%*56%-100%)
Ro=1/.44
R0=2.27
So if everyone in the worked was vaccinated with Sinovac vaccine then the virus must have a R0 if 2.27 or lower.

I would show JnJ and others but I am out of time for the moment (and did this on iPhone without glasses on)
 
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oceanbreeze77

Well-Known Member
Jrb1979 said:
As upsetting as this is, I was already expecting this year to be a write off in things returning to normal.
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same, but I was expecting the vaccines to at least be somewhat on pace. This completely knocks us off the right path. If this is not fixed, and production isn't picked up, we could be pushed farther into 2022. Before the "you just want to be locked down foreverrr" people come at me....this is REALLY BAD. Really bad.

There is No federal reserve. Get that in your head.
NO. FEDERAL. RESERVE.

Keep in mind, these were the 2nd doses.
 
Jrb1979

Jrb1979

Well-Known Member
oceanbreeze77 said:
same, but I was expecting the vaccines to at least be somewhat on pace. This completely knocks us off the right path. If this is not fixed, and production isn't picked up, we could be pushed farther into 2022. Before the "you just want to be locked down foreverrr" people come at me....this is REALLY BAD. Really bad.

There is No federal reserve. Get that in your head.
NO. FEDERAL. RESERVE.

Keep in mind, these were the 2nd doses.
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I agree. The economy and tourism is going to crippled for years from this.
 
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Polkadotdress

Well-Known Member
HarperRose said:
I was coming to post this. It was announced this morning there is no federal reserve of the vaccine.
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Was going to do the same thing!

The article mentions there is no reserve b/c the manufacturing supply had stabilized. So OWS did not see a reason to hold back.

What’s unfortunate is that many locales were hoping to dramatically increase vaccination rates, but now can’t because their weekly allocation will be the same.

This is going to take forever...
 
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