Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Heppenheimer]

Don't expect any vaccine to be granted emergency use prior to December, at the absolute earliest:

Report: FDA to Release Tougher COVID Vaccine Rules

The agency's move is intended to increase transparency about the safety and efficacy of a potential vaccine.

www.medscape.com

It doesn't seem that the drug companies are the ones pushing for a faster timeline, so this probably won't affect their plans. Rather, it seems to be a move by the FDA to strengthen itself against political interference.

 

[Rosso11]

I don't understand these lists.

Illinois has had a positivity rate of 3.5% for the past week. I think the highest we came in the last couple months was 5.2%

Right but Illinois’s positivity rate is still too high as a percentage of their population. It’s at 14.7 per 100,000 right now. It needs to drop below 10. The state has been above 10 since 7/23 but it is down from its high of 19.2 on 9/5.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

Where are the reports/studies of the chronic conditions from Covid?

I'm being serious with that question. I've read anecdotal reports on social media sites, seen various headlines on news-sites, but I've not seen an actual study.

I'd like to know the severity and types of the chronic conditions.

There are hundreds of reports from health institutions on this. Here’s just one from the Mayo Clinic.

COVID-19: Long-term effects

Learn about the possible long-term effects of COVID-19.

www.mayoclinic.org

 

[GimpYancIent]

Yes most people recover, but what we don't have good handle on yet is what is the prognosis for the ones that survived. How many have permanent damage? How many years will the virus cut off the life expectancy. Most people who get Chicken Pox recover, but 40 or 50 years later it can come back to bite them. Currently just to many unknowns.

Correct! Since these lingering questions will realistically be with us for years and solutions are continuously being worked the general populous can (observing proper, prudent protocols) get back to living and not just existing. Nothing wrong with going to MK and enjoying a Dole Whip while watching little ones marvel at the castle or a glimpse of Mickey. Sometimes little feel good things can have great therapeutic value.

 

[LukeS7]

Ugh. Since this illness came on scene an army of medical experts has arisen with a broad spectrum of opinions based on an equally broad series of studies, with more either underway or being developed. On top of that there are more so called experts reviewing and debating those opinions. In short A LOT OF WHEEL SPINNING producing a lot of smoke, no forward progress. The mask issue should not be an issue (wearing masks in public makes sense) Duh! because how the disease spreads is no longer news. All the social distancing and sanitation / disinfecting protocols make sense. Vaccines are in the works just not ready for mass distribution and they are not 100% effective. Got it! The stat no one wants to speak of is the most important one that in the neighborhood of 99.6% of the people that contract the illness resolve, get better, recover. Why is that not emphasized instead of the gloom, doom and sadness? No one is denying that some people die from COVID19 that is a hard fact that also applies to a host of other infections that existed prior to COVID, you know what!, those other infections are still with us. I wish people did not die from infections a sad fact that sometimes happens. COVID19 is not an automatic death sentence it is a serious illness that can be dealt with, yes respected, but not feared. WDW has set a high bar to deal with this issue and continue to function with the capability to have more activities.

Out of reported cases, globally, ~3% of people who have contracted it have died. In the US, that number is 2.91% (or approximately 7 times the number that you're claiming). That's without factoring in those who don't die but suffer longer-lasting effects from the virus.

Source: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

 

[Horizons '83]

Where are the reports/studies of the chronic conditions from Covid?

I'm being serious with that question. I've read anecdotal reports on social media sites, seen various headlines on news-sites, but I've not seen an actual study.

I'd like to know the severity and types of the chronic conditions.

No offense, but a simple google search will provide all studies about the potential long term effects.

 

[dreday3]

There are hundreds of reports from health institutions on this. Here’s just one from the Mayo Clinic.

COVID-19: Long-term effects

Learn about the possible long-term effects of COVID-19.

www.mayoclinic.org

Thanks but I'm looking for statistics/percentages.

It's not I don't believe it happens, I just want to know overall, the big pictures, how many is it happening to.

 

[dreday3]

No offense, but a simple google search will provide all studies about the potential long term effects.

I've been.

I think I'm looking for something different than what you guys are talking about. Or at least there isn't enough data out there yet to give me the answers I am seeking.

 

[dreday3]

Right but Illinois’s positivity rate is still too high as a percentage of their population. It’s at 14.7 per 100,000 right now. It needs to drop below 10. The state has been above 10 since 7/23 but it is down from its high of 19.2 on 9/5.

Thanks for explanation.

 

[Heppenheimer]

I've been.

I think I'm looking for something different than what you guys are talking about.

I don't think anyone has written one summary article yet, since the numbers are continually being defined and updated, and a lot of this depends on exactly which clinical question is being aksed.

Not every one of these articles are on-point for exactly what you are asking for, but here's search list I came up with:

Search | Medscape

Search Medscape's collection of over 50,000 journal articles, news stories and CME activities

search.medscape.com

 

[LukeS7]

I've been.

I think I'm looking for something different than what you guys are talking about.

Some percentages listed in this article, but the data is limited at the moment: https://www.advisory.com/daily-briefing/2020/06/02/covid-health-effects
Tl;dr: One study found cardiovascular damage in 12% of patients, another of 415 cases found 19% had it. Another study found 77% of patients had lung scarring, ground glass-esque patches in their lungs that don't always heal.

 

[GimpYancIent]

Out of reported cases, globally, ~3% of people who have contracted it have died. In the US, that number is 2.91% (or approximately 7 times the number that you're claiming). That's without factoring in those who don't die but suffer longer-lasting effects from the virus.

Source: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Ok. Globally 100% - 3% = 97% resolved / recovered. In the U.S. 100% - 2.91% = 97.09% resolved / recovered. Thank you for reinforcing my point. As for after effects COVID19 holds no exclusive a host of infections leave serious life long issues. In no way shape or form is that dying but issues medical science continuously works on.

 

[DCBaker]

Numbers are out -

 

[Dukeblue1227]

Ok. Globally 100% - 3% = 97% resolved / recovered. In the U.S. 100% - 2.91% = 97.09% resolved / recovered. Thank you for reinforcing my point. As for after effects COVID19 holds no exclusive a host of infections leave serious life long issues. In no way shape or form is that dying but issues medical science continuously works on.

Your “point” was 99.6%. Which is very different from 97%.

If 100 million people get it, your point was “only” 600k will die (which is an unfathomable number of deaths...). But the fact is if 100 million people get it, it’s 3 million who will die. An even more unfathomable number.

The reason people don’t talk about the 97% that live is because 3% of people dying from something that can be minimized and somewhat contained with a United, selfless approach from everyone is simply not okay.

The reason people don’t talk about the 97% is because the less action taken, the larger the number of cases meaning the larger the number of deaths.

People are far too cavalier about accepting the number of deaths.

 

[Kevin_W]

Numbers are out -

View attachment 500063View attachment 500064View attachment 500066View attachment 500067

The drops we saw a couple weeks ago were nice. It's a shame the numbers can't seem to go any lower.

 

[LukeS7]

Ok. Globally 100% - 3% = 97% resolved / recovered. In the U.S. 100% - 2.91% = 97.09% resolved / recovered. Thank you for reinforcing my point. As for after effects COVID19 holds no exclusive a host of infections leave serious life long issues. In no way shape or form is that dying but issues medical science continuously works on.

Wasn't reinforcing your point, I was reinforcing that your % was wrong and downplayed the severity. Let's assume (without a vaccine) a 60% infection rate needed to reach herd immunity. 60% of the US population is 196.92 million people, going with your numbers, the result is 787,680 people dead. Going with the actual rate, that number becomes 5.9 million people.

 

[lazyboy97o]

Ok. Globally 100% - 3% = 97% resolved / recovered. In the U.S. 100% - 2.91% = 97.09% resolved / recovered. Thank you for reinforcing my point. As for after effects COVID19 holds no exclusive a host of infections leave serious life long issues. In no way shape or form is that dying but issues medical science continuously works on.

We have an understanding of the typical complications from known diseases. We know risk factors and steps that can be taken to help prevent them. We know which ones we don't really know enough about. That is not the case with COVID-19 and assumptions based on what we know about other respiratory diseases keep getting upended.

 

[danlb_2000]

Where are the reports/studies of the chronic conditions from Covid?

I'm being serious with that question. I've read anecdotal reports on social media sites, seen various headlines on news-sites, but I've not seen an actual study.

I'd like to know the severity and types of the chronic conditions.

That is exactly my question, it's something we need to get a better understanding of. There is enough anecdotal evidence that this is probably a real thing, but I haven't seen any good numbers on how common it is.

 

[Heppenheimer]

Your “point” was 99.6%. Which is very different from 97%.

If 100 million people get it, your point was “only” 600k will die (which is an unfathomable number of deaths...). But the fact is if 100 million people get it, it’s 3 million who will die. An even more unfathomable number.

The reason people don’t talk about the 97% that live is because 3% of people dying from something that can be minimized and somewhat contained with a United, selfless approach from everyone is simply not okay.

The reason people don’t talk about the 97% is because the less action taken, the larger the number of cases meaning the larger the number of deaths.

People are far too cavalier about accepting the number of deaths.

Let's compare to seasonal influenza in the US, which is usually the #1 killer amongst infectious diseases that we can positively identify (bacterial pneumonia may kill more in any given year, but a number of different bacteria can be the cause, it isn't always possible to identify the culprit organism, and most bacterial causes aren't nearly as contagious).

Since the 2010-2011 influenza season, in the US we have averaged as low as 12,000 deaths in 2011-12 to as high as 61,000 in 2017-2018. Last year's numbers, for comparison, were about typical at 34,157. The death rates for these years were 0.13%, 0.13% and 0.09%, respectively.

Now, in less than the time than we usually have for a typical influenza season, the US has recorded 6.96 million cases of COVID-19, with 202K deaths, for a death rate of 2.9%. Even ignoring all the non-lethal consequences of a COVID-19 infection, that would still make it 22.3% more lethal and 3.3 times more prevalent than our worst recent flu season, and in less time to boot. Now, add the fact that we don't have a vaccine or specific antiviral treatments for COVID-19 yet, and perhaps the reason why nobody is talking about a "97% recovery rate" might start to become a little more clear.

Source, CDC:

Burden of Influenza

Learn about how CDC estimates the burden of seasonal influenza in the U.S.

www.cdc.gov

 

[Heppenheimer]

That is exactly my question, it's something we need to get a better understanding of. There is enough anecdotal evidence that this is probably a real thing, but I haven't seen any good numbers on how common it is.

See above. I couldn't find a comprehensive summary article, but there's plenty of information on individual conditions.