On layoffs, very bad attendance, and Iger's legacy being one of disgrace

Lilofan

Well-Known Member
Yeah, I don't think it's "fleeing the north". I think it's mostly retirees (at least for the areas I'm most familiar with) from the northeast who just want to be close to a beach with warmer weather for their retirement. Same thing that's been happening in Florida for ages and is just happening a lot more in NC/SC this century as well.
Some I know do it to live better in their later years. Sell your million dollar home up North, move South pay cash for the home then play golf and enjoy the beach in their later years. Sounds like a good plan to me.
 

UNCgolf

Well-Known Member
Some I know do it to live better in their later years. Sell your million dollar home up North, move South pay cash for the home then play golf and enjoy the beach in their later years. Sounds like a good plan to me.

Yep, exactly. That's why, as I mentioned above, homes are being built left and right in all the golf course communities near my beach.

The courses themselves often hire the retirees to work as rangers and starters too. They get to make a little extra income and get reduced rates/special privileges to play at the course.

I play a lot of golf in that area, and I'd say 90% of the starters at golf courses are retirees from New York or New Jersey.
 

carolina_yankee

Well-Known Member
I know some who live in nearby NJ. The insane property taxes that they pay and the town still has a volunteer ambulance / fire dept. ??

Yeah, no defense on that.

Still, a fair amount of disposable income for "NJ Week" to be a thing at WDW, which likely won't happen this year for both income and pandemic reasons. :(

WDW isn't pricing me out of the market, but the pandemic has gotten me to completely re-evaluate my relationship with Disney. I'm a DVC owner, two contracts bought direct, and have zero plans to return to any Disney park in the next 20 months at least, and possibly years. It's not Disney's fault, per se, but I want more control and more options in my life during uncertain times and being tied to Disney doesn't give one that.
 

Disstevefan1

Well-Known Member
How does the system work for APs with hotel reservations?

I've always felt that hotel reservations* should make you exempt from all blockout dates, whether you're an AP, Cast Member, or anything else. If you're paying for a week at a Disney resort, you should know you'll be able to get into the parks whether it's COVID time or "regular" time.

*Excluding the campground, otherwise you'd have passholders and cast members gobbling up cheap reservations and not even staying there, just to get into the parks.

Well, yes if a AP buys a room on site, they now have access to the (green) resort guest calendar. Yes this allows an AP who doesn’t (or can’t) wait a month to schedule a day on the AP calendar, can now pick from the resort calendar. I (think) one day at a resort gives you two days to reserve, check in day and check out day.

I guess many will feel this is totally fair; an AP whose ticket (ordinarily should) get them into the park must now buy a room to get into the park.

Well, it does make Disney money.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Well, yes if a AP buys a room on site, they now have access to the (green) resort guest calendar. Yes this allows an AP who doesn’t (or can’t) wait a month to schedule a day on the AP calendar, can now pick from the resort calendar. I (think) one day at a resort gives you two days to reserve, check in day and check out day.

I guess many will feel this is totally fair; an AP whose ticket (ordinarily should) get them into the park must now buy a room to get into the park.

Well, it does make Disney money.

This is where we fundamentally disagree. Having a limited number of locals, APs and “damn the torpedoes” regional travelers is not gonna make them money. It’s not a 1:1 scenario. They don’t make money off selling a Mickey plush...they make it Off selling 1,000. You have to first outrun the overhead costs.

That’s the model. That’s the framework. Can’t flip a switch now.

If you consider that...limiting cms and APs makes complete sense. They’d just be increasing their overhead to accommodate them and never get over the top.

This is gonna take awhile even if things go better than they have. And that’s assuming this ridiculous “v-shaped recovery” nonsense goes (it won’t)...

The canary in the coal mine to me is the recall of college program...things won’t be close to normal till that happens.
 
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CaptainAmerica

Well-Known Member
Covid is causing a rethinking of the Urban environment around major cities...that’s been pretty well reported. That a reverse of the millennial movement pattern of the last 20 years or so.
The weird part is that companies aren't catching up. Everyone who works for a "city office" company is working from home and will likely be working from home for the next year, if not forever. But nobody has bothered to tell the recruiters, so companies filling open positions are still filling them as if you need to relocate to Manhattan or San Francisco or wherever.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
The weird part is that companies aren't catching up. Everyone who works for a "city office" company is working from home and will likely be working from home for the next year, if not forever. But nobody has bothered to tell the recruiters, so companies filling open positions are still filling them as if you need to relocate to Manhattan or San Francisco or wherever.
I don’t usually consider ZipRecruiter and monsterjobs to be the brightest candles in the chandelier
 

Nubs70

Well-Known Member
The weird part is that companies aren't catching up. Everyone who works for a "city office" company is working from home and will likely be working from home for the next year, if not forever. But nobody has bothered to tell the recruiters, so companies filling open positions are still filling them as if you need to relocate to Manhattan or San Francisco or wherever.
Employers are figuring out that the fixed costs associated with maintaining an office can be eliminated and pushed to the employee by having them work from home. No rent, electricity, insurance, etc
 

hopemax

Well-Known Member
Employers are figuring out that the fixed costs associated with maintaining an office can be eliminated and pushed to the employee by having them work from home. No rent, electricity, insurance, etc
This is my DH's company. As of Aug 1, they essentially have no office. Their lease was expiring at the end of the year, and they decided not to renew. The company taking over the space wanted early access, so they paid DH's company to leave early. They have rented a new space for 2021 but even then, the expectation is that very few people will have permanent desks, so it is much smaller. In the interim, they have a tiny space for basically the CFO and 1 or 2 others.
 

CaptainAmerica

Well-Known Member
Employers are figuring out that the fixed costs associated with maintaining an office can be eliminated and pushed to the employee by having them work from home. No rent, electricity, insurance, etc
Right, but like I said, in practice they're only applying that to their existing workforce. They haven't pushed it out to their new recruiting policies.
 

Kingoglow

Well-Known Member
Employers are figuring out that the fixed costs associated with maintaining an office can be eliminated and pushed to the employee by having them work from home. No rent, electricity, insurance, etc

Employers are also beginning to figure out that they do not need middle-management any longer. The work is getting done without direct oversight.
 

_caleb

Well-Known Member
I’m definitely seeing an exodus from big cities to suburbs and smaller cities. I think small- to mid-size cities are going to be much more popular in the next several years as American workers work from home and shared workspaces.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Employers are figuring out that the fixed costs associated with maintaining an office can be eliminated and pushed to the employee by having them work from home. No rent, electricity, insurance, etc
This is absolutely the truth.

To expand: not only is it advantageous for business to close offices...it’s going to be advantageous for schools to try that as well. I mean colleges. The studies have shown Brick and mortar campuses will become insolvent completely by the next decade. Tuition will hit a ceiling and the bills can’t be paidz

Heck...the only reason college kids are going back right now is that they didn’t have enough time to charge tuition on remote without give backs.

In the future...we will “work” privately and have to have structure gatherings for social interaction.

Star Trek...basically
 
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mwf5555

Active Member
It’s widely speculated 10/1 is “krystalnacht” for layoffs...

I mentioned this on other Threads. If you got any federal covid money and fuloughed employees...you have to keep them on staff till 9/30.

That is going to be far more widespread than anyone want to thinks about.
Speculated by whom?
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Speculated by whom?
Every financial analyst when it’s come up...they’ll make a comment and move on quickly (because it’s bad for business)...but I’ve seen it on Bloomberg, CNBC, etc since June. No illusions.

The public statements by airlines and other sector businesses has been very thinly veiled.
 

Disstevefan1

Well-Known Member
This is where we fundamentally disagree. Having a limited number of locals, APs and “damn the torpedoes” regional travelers is not gonna make them money. It’s not a 1:1 scenario. They don’t make money off selling a Mickey plush...they make it Off selling 1,000. You have to first outrun the overhead costs.

That’s the model. That’s the framework. Can’t flip a switch now.

If you consider that...limiting cms and APs makes complete sense. They’d just be increasing their overhead to accommodate them and never get over the top.

This is gonna take awhile even if things go better than they have. And that’s assuming this ridiculous “v-shaped recovery” nonsense goes (it won’t)...

The canary in the coal mine to me is the recall of college program...things won’t be close to normal till that happens.

As for the overhead, the gates are open and the parks are running so no matter how many guests are in there there is a baseline overhead for just swinging open the gates no matter how many guests show up,
we know, the lowest overhead would be to close the gates.

It’s almost a binary choice; close and have the lowest overhead but make no money, or open albeit limited and make some money. Disney made their choice.

As for the overhead as a factor of how many bodies are in the park, given the limited capacity allowed, I would think the overhead is about the same if you let X APs in or 2X APs in and 99 percent of the APs spend money in the parks.

Let folks who have paid admission to the parks, go to the parks. Don’t force them to buy a room for admission they already paid for. If they hit the limited capacity, no one gets in.
 

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