News Disney and Fox come to terms -- announcement soon; huge IP acquisition

larryz

I'm Just A Tourist!
I can't wait for the collateral they'll need from Parks and Resorts customers, I mean guests, I mean... indentured servants (by their own choice).
I foresee WDW and the other parks going to a "membership" model like Costco or Sam's Club.

This will be "Walt's Club" and it'll cost you $1,000 per family unit just to be able to make resort reservations, buy park tickets, or book a cruise vacation.
 

larryz

I'm Just A Tourist!
Almost every analysts report. Watch CNBC and listen to all the analysts they had on this afternoon. Almost all of them said Disney's offer of cash and shares of Disney stock is a better offer than $41.00 cash. Disney will win this and not have to go up much more. I will vote in favor of the Disney offer and against any Comcast offer.
Oh, you mean Cramer said it so it must be true? :cautious:

Ever seen this clip?
 
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Lensman

Well-Known Member
I foresee WDW and the other parks going to a "membership" model like Costco or Sam's Club.

This will be "Walt's Club" and it'll cost you $1,000 per family unit just to be able to make resort reservations, buy park tickets, or book a cruise vacation.
I can see them wanting to do this. In fact, isn't DVC the Disney incarnation of the "membership" model? In fact, it's even better because it's a 50-year membership with upfront capital (covering construction costs), annual fees (covering maintenance), and creates a captive customer who you're assured with buy your park tickets, eat at your restaurants, buy your souvenirs, and with annual visits raise their kids to be your next generation of super-consumers.
 

larryz

I'm Just A Tourist!
I can see them wanting to do this. In fact, isn't DVC the Disney incarnation of the "membership" model? In fact, it's even better because it's a 50-year membership with upfront capital (covering construction costs), annual fees (covering maintenance), and creates a captive customer who you're assured with buy your park tickets, eat at your restaurants, buy your souvenirs, and with annual visits raise their kids to be your next generation of super-consumers.
DVC is the timeshare scam model. "Walt's Club" will be for anyone else who wants to go to a Disney park. To make it more attractive, every family that buys in will get a free magnet they can pick up on their first visit to the parks.
 

ToTBellHop

Well-Known Member
DVC is the timeshare scam model. "Walt's Club" will be for anyone else who wants to go to a Disney park. To make it more attractive, every family that buys in will get a free magnet they can pick up on their first visit to the parks.
DVC is a scam? How exactly?
 

happycamperuni

Active Member
Especially if the rumor that DOJ is close to approving the Disney deal, Comcast will have to put in their best possible bid next in order to avoid getting completely shut out.

Comcast management has said they're unwilling to use stock at current levels.
Yeah, if they aren't willing to add stock, then they're just raising the price for Disney.

I don't see any way that they make a "serious" counterbid with just cash at this point. Disney has a 50/50 cash/stock bid that can easily be raised. Unless Comcast moves to a similar bid structure, there's no way for them to win.
 

HauntedPirate

Park nostalgist
Premium Member
I foresee WDW and the other parks going to a "membership" model like Costco or Sam's Club.

This will be "Walt's Club" and it'll cost you $1,000 per family unit just to be able to make resort reservations, buy park tickets, or book a cruise vacation.

That is one of the scariest things I’ve read lately, mostly because it seems entirely plausible. :(
 

Rodan75

Well-Known Member
One thing that Iger highlighted today was that they are 6months into reviewing the Fox books and merger prep. 1. Disney has to feel really confident of what they’ve seen so far and 2. Once you get that deep and like what you see, it is hard to back out. You have envisioned the post merger company and begun to strategize for the future. They likely have tier 1 leadership selected (but not informed or announced).

I don’t know a lot about bond ratings, but some analyst said that Disney would move to junk if they countered one more
Time. Which seemed odd.

Also, with the current outrage against FoxNews, Ben Sherwood should be working to negotiate TV deals (or at least letting them know that ABC studios would be a good home for them) with folks who are looking to bolt. I’m sure there are loopholes that would allow normal competitive talent negotiations while merger review occurs. More talent departures from Disney or Fox would make them look foolish.
 

tirian

Well-Known Member
I swear this is the most exciting disney related thing ever for me. Not the movies, the parks, this bid. Can't wait to see the turnout whether disney "wins" or not.
58eef32d49f55e54f34b7da32ce9ed18.gif
You must not have followed the Save Disney campaign in the early 2000s. ;)
 

AnotherDayAnotherDollar

Well-Known Member
One thing that Iger highlighted today was that they are 6months into reviewing the Fox books and merger prep. 1. Disney has to feel really confident of what they’ve seen so far and 2. Once you get that deep and like what you see, it is hard to back out. You have envisioned the post merger company and begun to strategize for the future. They likely have tier 1 leadership selected (but not informed or announced).

I don’t know a lot about bond ratings, but some analyst said that Disney would move to junk if they countered one more
Time. Which seemed odd.


Also, with the current outrage against FoxNews, Ben Sherwood should be working to negotiate TV deals (or at least letting them know that ABC studios would be a good home for them) with folks who are looking to bolt. I’m sure there are loopholes that would allow normal competitive talent negotiations while merger review occurs. More talent departures from Disney or Fox would make them look foolish.

Do you have a link? That doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

Disney is under leveraged at 1.04x as of March 2018. If they close the deal at $38/share they would go to 3.2x or 3.4x (don't remember which one) if the rest of Sky is not purchased, 4x if the rest of Sky is purchased. This is assuming a 50/50 cash/stock transaction. They could definitely go higher. However if most FOX/FOXA shareholders were to choose cash then they'd be way overleveraged.

For comparison, CMCSA is currently at 2.95x as of March 2018. At $35/share for FOX and 6B cash on hand, their leverage was going to go to ~4.5x. Assuming they go up to $45 per share, their leverage would be ~5.1x. It's certainly doable that Comcast can still raise its bid, but whenever leverage gets over 4x people start getting antsy. I know I don't like it, but I can't even vote on it. They could also do a cash/stock counter bid, but their stock is down what? 18% this year? That's the reason they don't want to do a stock/cash transaction because CMCSA is severely undervalued right now.
 

Stripes

Well-Known Member
One thing that Iger highlighted today was that they are 6months into reviewing the Fox books and merger prep. 1. Disney has to feel really confident of what they’ve seen so far and 2. Once you get that deep and like what you see, it is hard to back out. You have envisioned the post merger company and begun to strategize for the future. They likely have tier 1 leadership selected (but not informed or announced).

I don’t know a lot about bond ratings, but some analyst said that Disney would move to junk if they countered one more
Time. Which seemed odd.

Also, with the current outrage against FoxNews, Ben Sherwood should be working to negotiate TV deals (or at least letting them know that ABC studios would be a good home for them) with folks who are looking to bolt. I’m sure there are loopholes that would allow normal competitive talent negotiations while merger review occurs. More talent departures from Disney or Fox would make them look foolish.
Yeah, that comment about their credit rating being junk is nonsense. Did it come from Greenfield? :hilarious:
 

Stripes

Well-Known Member
And honestly what good is Comcast stock to the Murdoch Trust when Roberts is CEO for life.
Yeah, there's no doubt that this deal really tightened Disney's grip on these assets. Even with another bid from Comcast, the odds of Disney winning this are substantially in their favor now.
 

MileZXO

Active Member
im hoping that Disney will see the potential in the Planet Of The Apes IP.

following War, they could easily carry it on and even remake the original/improve the sequel stories that followed it.

CHANGE DINOLAND USA TO PLANET OF THE APES!
 

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