News Disney and Fox come to terms -- announcement soon; huge IP acquisition

[Crossfire]

Really good article from Bloomberg about the deal:

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-06-13/comcast-s-fox-bid-gives-disney-room-to-maneuver

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Disney losing this is a big hurt on their long term plans. This was really only about the catalogs so they could have the streaming. If Disney really believes this is needed for long term growth they may pony up. But it is a big big number to overcome.

This is bob’s “Eisner moment”....

Ironically Eisners was when he bought Bob...

Think he has the stones for this?

 

[deWild]

This is bob’s “Eisner moment”....

Ironically Eisners was when he bought Bob...

Think he has the stones for this?

I think he’ll have to now that 4 Avatar movies and the rest of Marvel are up for grabs. Not to mention a massive subscription streaming presence overseas.

 

[mikejs78]

Sure seems like Disney is gonna lose this bigtime...

They pick up hasbro? A primarily toy company when toys are in trouble...

Video games? High cost/low yield.

Sony would be nice...don’t see it though.

Viacom or cbs...

Can't be CBS because they already own ABC - unless they just get the studios...

 

[mikejs78]

Exactly...I have a couple of VPs across town that have horses more valuable on their farm than what ran in the Belmont last week.

I know this is a Disney site...but this is koolaid to the max. Comcast isn’t in trouble

Not immediate trouble, but they have a long-term risk that could ruin them in 5-10 years, along with every other cable TV provider - cord cutting (and no, Internet isn't enough to replace it - 5G will see to that... Why do you think Comcast suddenly wants to get into wireless?). Comcast buying Fox and controlling more content is their hedge against that (aside from the international aspects of the deal). They think that if they can control more content, they can manage that risk. I don't think it's enough.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Not immediate trouble, but they have a long-term risk that could ruin them in 5-10 years, along with every other cable TV provider - cord cutting (and no, Internet isn't enough to replace it - 5G will see to that... Why do you think Comcast suddenly wants to get into wireless?). Comcast buying Fox and controlling more content is their hedge against that (aside from the international aspects of the deal). They think that if they can control more content, they can manage that risk. I don't think it's enough.

If the deal closes before 5-10 years...it doesn’t matter...no Homer Simpson in Epcot

 

[TwilightZone]

If the deal closes before 5-10 years...it doesn’t matter...no Homer Simpson in Epcot

There goes my dreams of Homer's world of motion

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Can't be CBS because they already own ABC - unless they just get the studios...

Pity...I was hoping for cbs so rian Johnson could have Captain Kirk get killed crossing the street or something

 

[AnotherDayAnotherDollar]

"I wouldn't rule out a small possibility that one of the global behemoths … may come in over the top,"

Gabelli said he thinks Comcast has room for another increase in its bid but that Twenty-First Century Fox Executive Chairman Rupert Murdoch "would prefer taking a tax-deferred deal."

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/13/mar...out-possibility-of-higher-bidder-for-fox.html

I don't think any of the FAANG will try to bid here, but he reiterates what has been assume. Comcast does have room to increase their bid. Probably up to 85B+ if required.

 

[Stripes]

I continue to believe Disney will win Fox outright. Their leverage is even smaller than Comcast's, and I think they're in a better position to go to war.

 

[trainplane3]

Pity...I was hoping for cbs so rian Johnson could have Captain Kirk get killed crossing the street or something

I doubt Rian could top Kirk being crushed to death by a bridge. That truly was the peak of on screen deaths.

 

[Twilight_Roxas]

Possibility?
http://comicbook.com/marvel/2018/06/13/disney-comcast-could-split-fox-assets/

 

[Stripes]

Possibility?
http://comicbook.com/marvel/2018/06/13/disney-comcast-could-split-fox-assets/

It's very, very clear that Comcast is mostly in this fight for Sky. If Disney were willing to give Comcast the 39% stake, I have no doubt they would take it and run.

 

[mikejs78]

Pity...I was hoping for cbs so rian Johnson could have Captain Kirk get killed crossing the street or something

Would that be much worse than having him killed by falling off a bridge?

 

[FutureCEO]

Consumers lose in the long run with both though I would love to see Sky come to the US. Well, I just want more futbol.

 

[seascape]

I still don't think the Fox assembly are worth 65 billion. However, I have thought about it and think Disney should up their offer to one share of Disney stock for 3 shares of Fox. That would make the offer over $35 a share and given that it should be closed$120 or more a share by closing Comcast would have to increase their offer to over $40.00 a share. Taking into account the additional amount needed to make up for part of the tax consequences Comcast would have to offer a minimum of $42 a share or $78 billion plus the $1.52 billion breakup fee. I expect Comcast to fo that and the $23 billion for Sky adding over $100 billion to their debt. Disney should stick it to Comcast and walk away if Comcast is stupid enough to bankrupt their future.

One last thing, if Disney does win Fox they could still let Comcast get Sky and force Comcast to pay cash for the 39% of Sky that Disney would own and that would amount to 12.09 billion. They should take that cash buy SeaWorld for 2.5 billion, buy Cedar Fair for 4.5 billion and really go after Comcast on all fronts. That would leave 5 billion to pay off some of Fox's 14 billion in debt.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Would that be much worse than having him killed by falling off a bridge?

No...sadly...the bar hasn’t been set that high

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I still don't think the Fox assembly are worth 65 billion. However, I have thought about it and think Disney should up their offer to one share of Disney stock for 3 shares of Fox. That would make the offer over $35 a share and given that it should be closed$120 or more a share by closing Comcast would have to increase their offer to over $40.00 a share. Taking into account the additional amount needed to make up for part of the tax consequences Comcast would have to offer a minimum of $42 a share or $78 billion plus the $1.52 billion breakup fee. I expect Comcast to fo that and the $23 billion for Sky adding over $100 billion to their debt. Disney should stick it to Comcast and walk away if Comcast is stupid enough to bankrupt their future.

One last thing, if Disney does win Fox they could still let Comcast get Sky and force Comcast to pay cash for the 39% of Sky that Disney would own and that would amount to 12.09 billion. They should take that cash buy SeaWorld for 2.5 billion, buy Cedar Fair for 4.5 billion and really go after Comcast on all fronts. That would leave 5 billion to pay off some of Fox's 14 billion in debt.

Nobody ever said it was “worth” the price.

That’s not how this goes...it’s likely a complete waste. But it’s about perception for Uber rich people that run these things and winning the corporate rooster fight.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/13/mar...out-possibility-of-higher-bidder-for-fox.html

I don't think any of the FAANG will try to bid here, but he reiterates what has been assume. Comcast does have room to increase their bid. Probably up to 85B+ if required.

No way they lose at that price...you know how much bob would have to increase the price of cupcakes to beat that?

 

[happycamperuni]

Leverage only matters if you're willing to use it:

Here's a very important factor that's being discounted here:

1) Brian Roberts, 58, is Comcast. It's written into the Comcast articles of incorporation that if Brian Roberts is healthy, willing, and able, then he's entitled to be both Chairman and CEO of Comcast. He can't be fired, and he controls an undilutable 33.3% of the Comcast shareholder vote (so good luck changing the incorporation documents).

He can serve for another 20+ years (like his father who was Chairman/CEO for 46 years) running Comcast. He doesn't care if they take on $120 billion in debt bringing them to $180 billion in total debt because given Comcast's $22+ billion in annual income, he can easily bring down their total debt by $70-80 billion over a 8-10 year timespan just by putting a portion of their income towards the debt payments.

2) Bob Iger is planning on leaving Disney. If Disney does win the Fox assets, how long is he planning on staying: 5 years at most? There's no way he can just pile a lot of extra cash into this bid and leave Disney heavily in debt for a successor to handle.