Likelyhood of a September AP Room-only discount?

[Howdy]

I have taken on the task of planning a trip for my family and another couple, both with one child. My wife and I will be purchasing annual passes before the trip, along with a tables in wonderland card, and are planning on having the whole group stay in a two bedroom villa in Bay Lake Tower. The kids share a birthday on September 26th, right in the middle of the last week of the value season, so I am debating on booking the trip for 9/23-9/29 or 9/30-10/6.

Question is, which of these time frames am I more likely to see an AP discount on the room? There is a $1300 price difference at rack rate just because of the difference in "seasons". Do I plan for the last week in September, or the first week in October?

 

[brightlillstar]

Value season is most likely going to be cheaper when the discounts come in. There usually are discounts available in September, just keep calling anc checking online to call as soon as they come out.

What I don't know is how discounts apply at DVC properties. If I were you I would look into renting points from a member. That might be cheaper than any published discount.

ETA: I have DVC at BLT.

FYI for September a 2 Bedroom villa is 273 points for standard view, 296 for Lake View and 366 for Theme Park View. You can rent points for $10-13 a point, so it will be anywhere from $2960 to $4758 for the week.

I'm showing a lake view on the Disney Website going for $6002 vs $2960 if you can rent for $10 a point. I really don't think you're going to beat that with an AP discount.

 

[Master Yoda]

Quite honestly, it is a crap shoot. You can look at all of the historical discounts on mousesavers.com and it would appear that either week would be a safe bet. However, Disney releases discounts based on occupancy and projected booking rates which will vary from year to year. Disney has also been scaling back discounts over the last few years. While there always appears to be some sort of promotion running, those promotions are now loaded with black out dates, blacked out resorts and limited availability.

The best thing to do would be to find a way to be flexible about your dates. Quite often moving up or down just a day or two can make all the difference in the world.

 

[Howdy]

What I don't know is how discounts apply at DVC properties. If I were you I would look into renting points from a member. That might be cheaper than any published discount.

My only concern with this is the change/cancellation hang ups. I don't intend to cancel anything but with a 4 and 1 year old you never know what might happen and if I understand correctly, it's usually quite difficult if not impossible to cancel a rental and get any money back.

Quite honestly, it is a crap shoot. You can look at all of the historical discounts on mousesavers.com and it would appear that either week would be a safe bet. However, Disney releases discounts based on occupancy and projected booking rates which will vary from year to year. Disney has also been scaling back discounts over the last few years. While there always appears to be some sort of promotion running, those promotions are now loaded with black out dates, blacked out resorts and limited availability.

The best thing to do would be to find a way to be flexible about your dates. Quite often moving up or down just a day or two can make all the difference in the world.

That is what I was kind of afraid of. I think that I will just book September 23-29 and keep checking for discounts to apply. Since neither of the kids are school age yet and we all have jobs that are pretty flexible with vacations I think we'll be alright in case I need to change the date at any point. We're looking at BLT as opposed to a Value or Moderate mostly for convenience at nap time, but we aren't rich people by any means so I need to keep costs as low as possible even though we are splurging on a special trip.

 

[dreamfinder]

That is what I was kind of afraid of. I think that I will just book September 23-29 and keep checking for discounts to apply. Since neither of the kids are school age yet and we all have jobs that are pretty flexible with vacations I think we'll be alright in case I need to change the date at any point. We're looking at BLT as opposed to a Value or Moderate mostly for convenience at nap time, but we aren't rich people by any means so I need to keep costs as low as possible even though we are splurging on a special trip.

BLT will be pretty expensive. Most of the DVC discounts tend to be at SSR or OKW. BLT is still in high demand. Since you are doing room only, book it, and then change if nothing comes out.

A cheaper season will lower the discount a bit. I.E. current discounts for next year, 20% off for All Star in January, but March is only 15% off. But you are paying less so it's a wash.

Also, will you benefit from the extras in the villa? Not sure what you are planning on doing, but you can end up with 2 regular rooms at the contemporary for the same (or possibly less) than the villa. If you don't think you will use the kitchen you may be able to save that way as well.

 

[Zummi Gummi]

FLE expansion is opening in phases, and I don't see it having a huge effect on attendance. It's not that significant.

Avatar Land, however, will be a different story.

 

[Howdy]

BLT will be pretty expensive. Most of the DVC discounts tend to be at SSR or OKW. BLT is still in high demand. Since you are doing room only, book it, and then change if nothing comes out.

A cheaper season will lower the discount a bit. I.E. current discounts for next year, 20% off for All Star in January, but March is only 15% off. But you are paying less so it's a wash.

Also, will you benefit from the extras in the villa? Not sure what you are planning on doing, but you can end up with 2 regular rooms at the contemporary for the same (or possibly less) than the villa. If you don't think you will use the kitchen you may be able to save that way as well.

Yeah, I think that we have decided to just book in the value season and hope for a discount. We are driving down, so the plan is to stop at a grocery on the way in and the cook most of our own breakfast and lunches (since at least half of the group will be going back to the room for a kiddo nap every day).

I was actually surprised at the price of the room in BLT, rack rate on a theme park view 2 bedroom villa for room only that week is $5732 whereas a theme park view Contemporary room is $3375. (I know I'm we don't have to have theme park view, but if I'm shelling out the extra cash to be in the deluxe resort, I'll spend a bit more to have the view.)