DisneylandForward

[BrianLo]

You've mentioned the idea of a park exit (and entry too?) from DL's DF before and I've thought about it, and I'm not sure I've ever said anything because I'm conflicted. I understand the Monorail has opened that door but in a very special way. I'm not sure an entry/exit out in that park annex is a great way to orchestrate the brand experience. I get why AP holders who are dropping into the park all the time as a hang-out would appreciate it but I'd hate to see tourists use that and miss some of the imprint moments that are key to longterm brand loyalty.

I should clarify I’m coming at it from the tourist lens (which I am), not really about APs. An entry / exit for their hotel guests and that even includes the western flanks of Grand Cal. Not a bypass, but a more properly considered entry gate for the hotel district. A parking garage exit on the other hand would likely be more of an exit-exclusive end of night bypass. Those parking garages still need to send people to DCA and couldn’t handle morning entry crowds.

Probably - this includes an inevitable hotel. Fantasy springs entry more or less (but a much nicer hotel one would hope).

But the case was being made in this thread specifically that investments in DCA meant fewer investments in Disneyland. Full stop. Obliquely, likely. But they were also investing in 10-12 other major projects globally so it's arguably part of the truth but overly simplistic and not the whole truth. Even if they didn't build DCA it may have been difficult to make a business case in doing "major expansions" at Disneyland so long as there were other more lucrative ROI-wise investments they could make.

Absolutely! I wasn’t meaning to make it full stop, I brought up SDL’s impact from the jump start. I just abandoned the broader portfolio because if folks were rejecting intra gate investment delaying existing gates, it was harder to move onto the full portfolio.

Disneyland has always, from the start, had decade on decade outflow. Worse in their earlier years as the segment was tiny and the launch of Magic Kingdom then Epcot were huge competing priorities.

I wouldn’t per se blame the cruise ships. There were four of them and they are less significant in the grand scheme of things. Moreso the back to back of DAK, DCA, WDSP, HKDL with Magic/Wonder, where we can tell the company just did not have sufficient capital to pull that all off.

I just finished a deep dive back look and we’re at a pretty interesting juncture in Experiences. This is the first time ever that experiences seems to be bringing in more money than it is investing globally in capital. It is finally at scale that they can afford to invest in all their parks globally and still add cruise ships. But in my mind if we start getting lumpy gate investments that are not in part supported by external partners, something has to give.

 

[BrianLo]

What a spirited discussion! Wading in with some thoughts on a few points.

1. "Either/or" --> "If/then"

Thank you, yes great clarification. The most likely scenario is simply nothing happens to TSL in the next 10-15 years.

I haven’t even dropped my ultimate grenade yet. I’m on not team mall. In the grand scheme of things I think they should consider a water park, hotel, dining concept down there. It won’t break the bank, extends length of stay for tourists without all the risks. Only then if the resort clearly is ready for it to search for a satellite for their third gate offering with an integrated resort zone transit solution.

Quite literally the Universal Orlando playbook without letting their first two gates rot.

 

[DrStarlander]

Thank you, yes great clarification. The most likely scenario is simply nothing happens to TSL in the next 10-15 years.

I haven’t even dropped my ultimate grenade yet. I’m on not team mall. In the grand scheme of things I think they should consider a water park, hotel, dining concept down there. It won’t break the bank, extends length of stay for tourists without all the risks. Only then if the resort clearly is ready for it to search for a satellite for their third gate offering with an integrated resort zone transit solution.

WATERPARK!?!

Talk about taking the heat off the third gate crowd! Phew!

 

[Disney Irish]

Agreed, never discount the possibility of a disappointing project. Fingers crossed whatever they do is fantastic.

Yep, which is why again I look at it realistically not from a fan perspective, to throw a dose of reality on it if you wish. We know Disney can drop a bomb, and there is no reason to think that a WestCot or World Showcase would be any different.

To be specific, I did mean maybe development activity in TS in roughly 5 to 7 years. Crazy, I know. It's because I'm stumped on this: Other than reclaiming about 2.5 acres for Avatar, what would be the reason to build EGW now if TS and Simba remain parking for many years to come? If it's all just for a couple of acres of Avatar, does that seem like an extraordinary effort/investment (hundred of millions of dollars, maybe) for so little incremental acreage? For frugal Disney, seems they would have just taken more of Hollywood Blvd. for Avatar, that would be so much cheaper and quicker.

Or, now, with ART buses ending, it seems they could put a TS drop off to the far north by the edge of TL and still recapture a lot of that land, fast and cheap. And kick the can on EGW until they do want to develop Simba/TS. That is, there are opportunities to be frugal and Disney is not taking them, and my head can't comprehend!
View attachment 910766
All I can think of is perhaps there's not enough parking for the crowds they expect DCA expansions to bring in.

We have to keep reminding ourself that DLForward was to setup DLR for the next 40 years of development, not the next 10-15. This is it, once this is gone there is no more unless Disney buys up more land around the area. And I know that is the hope with GW and a few other plots of land. But that isn't what Disney is banking on right now.

So whatever is going to happen with TSL and Simba, and don't forget the DH parking too as that is part of this, its not likely to happen in the next decade if I was to guess. Its why I keep saying look at 2035 or beyond for actual movement.

I haven't followed OC Vibe closely but I can't find much about retail there. I think I saw a 50,000 F&B element but I'm not seeing claims about retail square footage (admittedly I haven't dug too deep). And I think they've reduced the office space in favor of more housing. I wasn't joking about the Cotina comment, housing could be in the cards for some of TS if it's also a lot of retail.

Housing would be a waste in my opinion, especially in TSL. Because you think Cotina prices as high at $1M-$4M, imagine a Disney property in the heart of Anaheim next to Disneyland, you'd be looking at $2.5M-5M easy.

But on the OC Vibe, that is even further away. And just don't see that as being added into DLR.

 

[BrianLo]

WATERPARK!?!

Talk about taking the heat of the third gate crowd! Phew!

And a Skyliner, I’d buy that timeshare!

 

[Disney Irish]

WATERPARK!?!

Talk about taking the heat of the third gate crowd! Phew!

You haven't been here long enough, but some of the same third gaters here have been asking for a Disney water park for a very long time. So this actually floats right up their alley.

 

[DrStarlander]

Here's a looksie at Blizzard Beach there at scale...

 

[Disney Irish]

Here's a looksie at Blizzard Beach there at scale...
View attachment 910769

Add in one or two hotels around the edges, plus some light retail/dining, and that honestly would be about what I would expect to go there.

 

[mickEblu]

Add in one or two hotels around the edges, plus some light retail/dining, and that honestly would be about what I would expect to go there.

 

[Disney Irish]

Just being realistic here. You can dream up whatever you want, and then be disappointed when it doesn't happen. Me I'm keeping my ideas more grounded based on what is most like Disney to do, and not be disappointed when something similar happens.

 

[coffeefan]

Thank you, yes great clarification. The most likely scenario is simply nothing happens to TSL in the next 10-15 years.

I haven’t even dropped my ultimate grenade yet. I’m on not team mall. In the grand scheme of things I think they should consider a water park, hotel, dining concept down there. It won’t break the bank, extends length of stay for tourists without all the risks. Only then if the resort clearly is ready for it to search for a satellite for their third gate offering with an integrated resort zone transit solution.

Quite literally the Universal Orlando playbook without letting their first two gates rot.

That would be my preference for the fourth domino, but it's a big upgrade over the hotel mall idea for the third domino.

 

[DrStarlander]

Add in one or two hotels around the edges, plus some light retail/dining, and that honestly would be about what I would expect to go there.

Here that is. I personally won't go here because I'm too old for a waterpark and I'm not interested in shopping but it consists of:

• The Grove
• Blizzard Beach
• 3 Helios Grand
• Lots of Parking

Retail is near the convention center and Harbor hotels. Water park parking is close to I-5 exit. Bridge connection to Garden Walk is possible.

I wanted you to have this to pin on your vision board . I do like it better than just retail and hotels though, but I'd rather have Westcot.

 

[Disney Irish]

Here that is. I personally won't go here because I'm too old for a waterpark and I'm not interested in shopping but it consists of:

• The Grove
• Blizzard Beach
• 3 Helios Grand
• Lots of Parking

Retail is near the convention center and Harbor hotels. Water park parking is close to I-5 exit. Bridge connection to Garden Walk is possible.

I wanted you to have this to pin on your vision board . I do like it better than just retail and hotels though, but I'd rather have Westcot.
View attachment 910774

Thank you. While not ideal I have a feeling this is about what we're going to get. Not a full "theme park", but some hybrid. So trade out the water park for "name your small themed area here" and I'd guess this is what Disney is actively looking for on a future TSL expansion.

 

[CoastalElite64]

Here that is. I personally won't go here because I'm too old for a waterpark and I'm not interested in shopping but it consists of:

• The Grove
• Blizzard Beach
• 3 Helios Grand
• Lots of Parking

Retail is near the convention center and Harbor hotels. Water park parking is close to I-5 exit. Bridge connection to Garden Walk is possible.

I wanted you to have this to pin on your vision board . I do like it better than just retail and hotels though, but I'd rather have Westcot.
View attachment 910774

Niles: What do Californians have against water parks?

The idea of a theme park filled with water attractions was born in the Golden State, but the parks themselves aren’t as popular here as elsewhere.

www.ocregister.com

Waterparks are more popular in Florida than in Cali. Maybe because the weather is humid.

 

[J4546]

I went to volcano bay a few years ago, along with Epcot, MK, USF and IOA and Volcano bay was my fave place

 

[Disney Irish]

Niles: What do Californians have against water parks?

The idea of a theme park filled with water attractions was born in the Golden State, but the parks themselves aren’t as popular here as elsewhere.

www.ocregister.com

Waterparks are more popular in Florida than in Cali. Maybe because the weather is humid.

There are literally like 10 water parks within a 10-15 mile radius of Disneyland. So I would say they are plenty popular.

 

[mickEblu]

I went to volcano bay a few years ago, along with Epcot, MK, USF and IOA and Volcano bay was my fave place

So along with half the parks in Orlando?

 

[NobodyElse]

There are literally like 10 water parks within a 10-15 mile radius of Disneyland. So I would say they are plenty popular.

Literally? I keep hearing that word. I don't think it means what you think it means.

 

[PiratesMansion]

I love the Disney water parks in Florida.

A water park is also a waste of limited, valuable real estate in California, particularly since it will not be able to operate year round.

Both things can be true.

 

[Parteecia]

I love the Disney water parks in Florida.

A water park is also a waste of limited, valuable real estate in California, particularly since it will not be able to operate year round.

Both things can be true.

Indoor or indoor/outdoor like Great Wolf?