DisneylandForward

[CoastalElite64]

I vote for Chapek to come back and bring Bullseye with him (not the Disney character but the Target mascot) to announce with huge fanfare that Target is coming to the Disneyland Resort

 

[GravityFalls]

I know that several want to bring in WDW here as a comparison. But that as I mention is a different region with its own set of issues. So while its nice to look at we don't know if Disney is trying to even make DLR into another WDW. Because if that happens that means there is potential cannibalization that will happen with travel to WDW from both international travel and even domestic travel, meaning an impact there. And that isn't something I see Disney wanting to do.

I'm British (but I live in America now). Anecdotally I've heard people say "we don't have to travel to Florida anymore" when talking about Disney Adventure World and Universal Great Britain. So there is some level of cannibalization that both companies seem to be okay with.

 

[DrStarlander]

I'm British (but I live in America now).

Anybody living in your old place back in the UK and would they like a roommate?

 

[BrianLo]

On paper a 3rd gate may look like a slam dunk to fans. But in reality we know that when a new gate is developed and built it draws all development and construction focus away from the other Parks. So that means there is no new additions in DL or DCA during that development cycle, which would be a decade or more. That means nothing new, no new entertainment, no new attractions, no new offerings, nothing, or very little, in fact it would probably be cuts across both in order to keep costs down. So that is a long drought of no development that may make the early days of DCA look like a picnic.

This claim keeps being reworded and repeated, but based on historical data, it is unsupported for Disney, on either coast.

Hold up a second here, on what basis are you making this statement coffeefan?

Disneyland went more or less 25 years without an addition due to DCA. Disneyland Paris still to this day has stalled out due to WDSP. Magic Kingdom only started adding attractions again once they stopped building parks in Florida. Epcot slowly became a shell of itself as MGM and DAK stole focus. Even Shanghai Disney stalled out and cancelled projects at Disneyland.

Look to Universal. Nintendo, Pokemon, Zelda, Ministry of Magic would have all been open by now in USO/IOA if Epic didn’t strip them and hog budgets and priorities.

Only now has Tokyo entered a cycle where both of their parks are seeing consistent major additions, because they’ve decided to focus on a two gated solution in lieu of a third.

The new gate fans need to acknowledge it really is a zero sum game. You can’t have both (Disneyland forward and a third park), you get one. Either Disneyland and DCA continue to see a steady stream of investments, or they get put on the back burner for a quarter century to support a third gate initiative.

 

[BrianLo]

1960's: 12 New Attractions, 4 E Tickets (Flying Saucers, Treehouse, Tiki Room, Mr. Lincoln, Small World, Primeval World, Pirates, PeopleMover, Mission to Mars, Inner Space, Carousel of Progress, Haunted Mansion)
1970's: 5 New Attractions, 3 E Tickets (Bear Jamboree, America Sings, MSEP, Space Mountain, Thunder Mountain)
1980's: 5 New Attractions, 2 E Tickets (Pinocchio, Fantasyland Theater, Captain EO, Star Tours, Splash Mountain)
1990's: 7 New Attractions, 2 E Tickets (Go Coaster, Trolley, Roger Rabbit, Fantasmic!, Indy, Rocket Rods, Innoventions)
2000's: 10 New Attractions, 2 E Tickets (Millionaire, Heimlich's, Flyers, Buggies, Boogie, Tower, Monsters Inc., Buzz Lightyear, Nemo Submarines, Midway Mania)
2010's: 10 New Attractions, 3 E Tickets (Mermaid, Mater's, Flying Tires, Cars Racers, Red Car, World of Color, Philharmagic, Rollin' Roadsters, Target Run, Rise Before Dawn)
2020's: 6 New Attractions, 1 E Ticket (Spiderman, Runaway Railway, Pillow Guy Walt, Marvel E, Marvel C, Coco)

Highlighting TP’s summary here to more or less reiterate the point that additions are and have always been more or less fixed.

We can concentrate them however we wish, but the discussion is more informed by acknowledging how this works. Absolutely, I personally have no problem with people preferring a third gate initiative (though you can gather my preference), but the discussion is more lively if we approach it from the same lens of understanding that spending can be lumpy or spread out, but in the macro-sense it tends to default to the mean.

 

[Distorian]

Hold up a second here, on what basis are you making this statement coffeefan?

Disneyland went more or less 25 years without an addition due to DCA. Disneyland Paris still to this day has stalled out due to WDSP. Magic Kingdom only started adding attractions again once they stopped building parks in Florida. Epcot slowly became a shell of itself as MGM and DAK stole focus. Even Shanghai Disney stalled out and cancelled projects at Disneyland.

Look to Universal. Nintendo, Pokemon, Zelda, Ministry of Magic would have all been open by now in USO/IOA if Epic didn’t strip them and hog budgets and priorities.

Only now has Tokyo entered a cycle where both of their parks are seeing consistent major additions, because they’ve decided to focus on a two gated solution in lieu of a third.

The new gate fans need to acknowledge it really is a zero sum game. You can’t have both (Disneyland forward and a third park), you get one. Either Disneyland and DCA continue to see a steady stream of investments, or they get put on the back burner for a quarter century to support a third gate initiative.

You mean I can have both a third gate AND Disneyland stays untouched???

 

[BrianLo]

You mean I can have both a third gate AND Disneyland stays untouched???
View attachment 910633

Honestly yes, it’s a good rationale!

I guess there is a good non-Walty argument that Disneyland is more or less complete and worth leaving alone. Though I still imagine most of us hope for one last kick at the Tomorrowland can before leaving the park be.

The grass might not be greener per se, I know the Parisian community feels differently about the forever time capsule nature of DLP.

 

[Distorian]

Honestly yes, it’s a good rationale!

I guess there is a good non-Walty argument that Disneyland is more or less complete and worth leaving alone. Though I still imagine most of us hope for one last kick at the Tomorrowland can before leaving the park be.

The grass might not be greener per se, I know the Parisian community feels differently about the forever time capsule nature of DLP.

There's obviously room for Disneyland to be improved, however none of the recent changes have tackled this. Walt show, Splash Mountain change, Galaxy's Edge. Not one of these actually fixed any of the problems with the park and in many cases made good things worse. MMRR is the only recent truly positive addition to the park, but it also wasn't that necessary like a Tomorrowland fix is. I suppose there are little wins like the new bride, the Pirates restoration, and the Hungry Bear signage, but by and large, if it came down to it, I'm at the point with a stagnant Disneyland because I just don't trust WDI.

 

[DrStarlander]

I guess there is a good non-Walty argument that Disneyland is more or less complete and worth leaving alone. Though I still imagine most of us hope for one last kick at the Tomorrowland can before leaving the park be.

I had written a whole post asking why the heck Disneyland needs to be expanded anyway, then deleted it figuring why bother trying to make that case to park fans, haha. But since you bring it up: There are aspects of Disneyland in terms of scale and pinch-points throughout the park that I think would be very stressed (and make guests very stressed out) if they push overall attendance higher and higher.

I posted a redevelopment of River Belle Terrace to relieve the Adventureland to New Orleans Square pinch point here and recently advocated Dumbo be moved behind/above Casey Jr. to relieve the congestion in that critical east-west swath of Fantasyland. These kinds of walkway widening, stroller parking, pinch point eliminating projects (including queue buildings for old-school attractions that have their lines spilling out into the walkways...Matterhorn I'm looking at you) are going to be necessary if they expand Disneyland into DF and keep pushing the attendance up. It may be necessary if they do something cool with TL.

Oddly early in its life, I think Simba will be DCA's "one last kick" since so much of the park will be relatively new, even in a decade or two, and unlikely to be torn out for revamp. It's not hard to see a point 20 years from now when DCA is unable to expand or change much. That's when @Disney Irish will be calling for them to tear down the shopping center and build a damn third gate, watch this space!

 

[mickEblu]

There's obviously room for Disneyland to be improved, however none of the recent changes have tackled this. Walt show, Splash Mountain change, Galaxy's Edge. Not one of these actually fixed any of the problems with the park and in many cases made good things worse. MMRR is the only recent truly positive addition to the park, but it also wasn't that necessary like a Tomorrowland fix is. I suppose there are little wins like the new bride, the Pirates restoration, and the Hungry Bear signage, but by and large, if it came down to it, I'm at the point with a stagnant Disneyland because I just don't trust WDI.

We also have to acknowledge that Disneyland will always have a certain historical value that no other park will have. And at certain point you’re down to nothing but untouchable classics like POTC, HM, BTMRR or integral parts of the park like the ROA/ Storybookland or tiny attractions that wouldn’t be worth touching at all like the Fantasyland dark rides. After TL is updated and they fully flesh out Fantaysyland you are pretty much at point where there just isn’t any fat to cut and most of the park should get the DLRR train station, Hungry Bear and POTC building treatment and be considered historical landmarks. Obviously you still have Toontown that could be tinkered with, GE and Tiana/ most of bayou country but a good 80% of the park should be considered untouchable. Especially when you have crap like Avengers Campus across the way taking up valuable real estate.

 

[BrianLo]

So if that's the strategy, then Chimelong Ocean World (think Sea World) and Chimelong Spaceship (indoor park themed as a "spaceship") are the big competitors to position against. "Project Atlas" is the supposed codename for the new park (Atlas is the namesake for the Atlantic Ocean). So something with a nautical ship/ocean theme.

As an aside, I think the theme park community has silently slept on the Fantawild Brand. There are like 30 of those parks now and 40 posts on themeparx

I don’t know why, but Chimelong gets all the air time. Meanwhile Fantawild has been silently adding EMV, Kuka, LPS and even SDL pirates large scale dark rides and absolutely no one talks about them.

I went down a rabbit hole and have a trip planned around a few Fantawild parks, so I’ll surely come back with thoughts. Also some of the big European names this year too, having more of a theme park year than I thought.

 

[Disney Irish]

I'm British (but I live in America now). Anecdotally I've heard people say "we don't have to travel to Florida anymore" when talking about Disney Adventure World and Universal Great Britain. So there is some level of cannibalization that both companies seem to be okay with.

Agreed, but you typically don't have that at the Domestic Parks. And not with DLR cannibalizing WDW, what is suppose to be Disney's flagship Resort. That might be alright with some fans (especially locals) so they don't have to travel all the way to Orlando at those Disney prices, when they can just stay home at get the same experience. But look at it with a business hat, it makes no sense. Its why Disney is never likely to build another Resort in the US, like in Texas or the Midwest, no matter how many times our forum friends from those areas claims it makes sense. Disney just isn't going to risk the cannibalization of either Resort, especially not WDW.

 

[Disney Irish]

Highlighting TP’s summary here to more or less reiterate the point that additions are and have always been more or less fixed.

We can concentrate them however we wish, but the discussion is more informed by acknowledging how this works. Absolutely, I personally have no problem with people preferring a third gate initiative (though you can gather my preference), but the discussion is more lively if we approach it from the same lens of understanding that spending can be lumpy or spread out, but in the macro-sense it tends to default to the mean.

Thank you, its why I've been trying to look at this from a realistic business sense. Disney isn't going to shoot their shot all in one go, its going to do expansion on the long term. DLFoward is suppose to be for the next 40 years.

I don't acknowledge TP enough due to our many interactions over the years, but in this case I will.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

I'm British (but I live in America now). Anecdotally I've heard people say "we don't have to travel to Florida anymore" when talking about Disney Adventure World and Universal Great Britain. So there is some level of cannibalization that both companies seem to be okay with.

I agree but think that’s a bit of an apples to oranges comparison, spending billions to create a new park that’s 500 miles away from an existing park is a pretty safe bet, if there’s 20,000 guests in the new park every day you’re probably only losing a handful of guests that would have gone to FL or CA that day instead, spending billions to build a park within steps of an existing park is a completely different situation, I think in that situation for every 100 guests at the new park 50 of them are probably skipping DCA (or HS or AK).

It’s why I’ve argued for years that a park in TX, within driving distance of 30 million people, makes far more sense than a 3rd gate at DL or 5th gate at WDW. Sure it’ll poach a few from CA and FL but it’ll add infinitely more new visits.

DLR already survives largely on locals with APs, I don’t see the logic in spending $10 billion in CA for 7 million additional visits when you could spend the same $10 billion in TX and get 15 million additional visits. Even in FL where it’s primarily tourists a new park likely isn’t getting most to add a day, they’ll just skip HS or AK to free up time for the new park.

 

[Disney Irish]

I had written a whole post asking why the heck Disneyland needs to be expanded anyway, then deleted it figuring why bother trying to make that case to park fans, haha. But since you bring it up: There are aspects of Disneyland in terms of scale and pinch-points throughout the park that I think would be very stressed (and make guests very stressed out) if they push overall attendance higher and higher.

I posted a redevelopment of River Belle Terrace to relieve the Adventureland to New Orleans Square pinch point here and recently advocated Dumbo be moved behind/above Casey Jr. to relieve the congestion in that critical east-west swath of Fantasyland. These kinds of walkway widening, stroller parking, pinch point eliminating projects (including queue buildings for old-school attractions that have their lines spilling out into the walkways...Matterhorn I'm looking at you) are going to be necessary if they expand Disneyland into DF and keep pushing the attendance up. It may be necessary if they do something cool with TL.

Oddly early in its life, I think Simba will be DCA's "one last kick" since so much of the park will be relatively new, even in a decade or two, and unlikely to be torn out for revamp. It's not hard to see a point 20 years from now when DCA is unable to expand or change much. That's when @Disney Irish will be calling for them to tear down the shopping center and build a damn third gate, watch this space!

Believe it or not, my idea with using TSL for the hotel/shopping district, what I had been calling the West Coast version of Disney Springs with Hotels, was so they could tear down DTD and use that as the last huge piece of the expansion puzzle so they can make one big contiguous parcel for the west side. This could either be used as expansion of the two parks, or as a 3rd gate. Because that gives you almost as much space as DCA for a 3rd gate.

So again I'm not looking for a 2nd mall, in fact I'm not looking for a mall at all, as I've said numerous times. I've always said I just don't want a 3rd gate (for many reasons), I rather have expansion of DL and DCA. But if moving the hotel and retail district to TSL gives them reason to tear down DTD and make enough land to build a proper 3rd gate within a few steps of DL and DCA, why not.

 

[coffeefan]

Hold up a second here, on what basis are you making this statement coffeefan?

Disneyland went more or less 25 years without an addition due to DCA.

The new gate fans need to acknowledge it really is a zero sum game. You can’t have both (Disneyland forward and a third park), you get one. Either Disneyland and DCA continue to see a steady stream of investments, or they get put on the back burner for a quarter century to support a third gate initiative.

Are you saying that Disneyland didn't get new attractions over the last 25 years? I'm confused if you are, because that's very easily debunked.

Highlighting TP’s summary here to more or less reiterate the point that additions are and have always been more or less fixed.

We can concentrate them however we wish, but the discussion is more informed by acknowledging how this works. Absolutely, I personally have no problem with people preferring a third gate initiative (though you can gather my preference), but the discussion is more lively if we approach it from the same lens of understanding that spending can be lumpy or spread out, but in the macro-sense it tends to default to the mean.

Based on his findings, additions may be fixed, but what you are omitting is the massive burst of new attractions DLR obtained when DCA opened, which increased DLR's total overall attraction count in one year. Instead of the status quo remaining with fixed incremental additions and no sudden burst of 10+ attractions in one year.

The notable attractions not included are: Soarin' over California, Grizzly River Run, Incrediecoaster, Mickey's Fun Wheel, MuppetVision, Tough to Be a Bug, Animation Academy, and the Silly Swings.

Here's how the growth of the Disneyland Resort, combining both parks post 2000, has looked after the park got established and off and running with the big triple E Ticket expansion of 1959. DCA was a big add as any new park is, but for purposes of incremental "expansion" it counts from 2002 onward:

1960's: 12 New Attractions, 4 E Tickets (Flying Saucers, Treehouse, Tiki Room, Mr. Lincoln, Small World, Primeval World, Pirates, PeopleMover, Mission to Mars, Inner Space, Carousel of Progress, Haunted Mansion)
1970's: 5 New Attractions, 3 E Tickets (Bear Jamboree, America Sings, MSEP, Space Mountain, Thunder Mountain)
1980's: 5 New Attractions, 2 E Tickets (Pinocchio, Fantasyland Theater, Captain EO, Star Tours, Splash Mountain)
1990's: 7 New Attractions, 2 E Tickets (Go Coaster, Trolley, Roger Rabbit, Fantasmic!, Indy, Rocket Rods, Innoventions)
2000's: 10 New Attractions, 2 E Tickets (Millionaire, Heimlich's, Flyers, Buggies, Boogie, Tower, Monsters Inc., Buzz Lightyear, Nemo Submarines, Midway Mania)
2010's: 10 New Attractions, 3 E Tickets (Mermaid, Mater's, Flying Tires, Cars Racers, Red Car, World of Color, Philharmagic, Rollin' Roadsters, Target Run, Rise Before Dawn)
2020's: 6 New Attractions, 1 E Ticket (Spiderman, Runaway Railway, Pillow Guy Walt, Marvel E, Marvel C, Coco)

Disneyland Forward Begins Opening....

2030's: 6 New Attractions, 2 E Tickets ( Avatar E Ticket, Avatar D Ticket, Tomorrowland E Ticket, 2 Tomorrowland Family Rides, New Pixar Pier Spinner in East Helix)
2040's: 9 New Attractions, 2 E Tickets (Disneyland West Expansion = 2 E Tickets, 7 Family Rides/Spinners)
2050's: 9 New Attractions, 3 E Tickets (DCA West Expansion = 2 E Tickets, 5 Family Rides/Spinners, Disneyland North E Ticket, Disneyland North Family Ride)

The new gate fans need to acknowledge it really is a zero sum game. You can’t have both (Disneyland forward and a third park), you get one. Either Disneyland and DCA continue to see a steady stream of investments, or they get put on the back burner for a quarter century to support a third gate initiative.

These findings prove the opposite. Westcot would be a burst of 10+ new attractions for DLR and we would still get the regular fixed incremental additions (that would occur anyway).

 

[BrianLo]

I had written a whole post asking why the heck Disneyland needs to be expanded anyway, then deleted it figuring why bother trying to make that case to park fans, haha. But since you bring it up: There are aspects of Disneyland in terms of scale and pinch-points throughout the park that I think would be very stressed (and make guests very stressed out) if they push overall attendance higher and higher.

There’s much to be said about E-ticket alley and the sheer congestion there. Galaxies Edge does help, but it is so circuitous. Unlike what we speculated a decade ago, that lands walkway is not crammed or over-utilized. Of course Magic Kingdom went for broke and put a pathway through the mid point of Tom Sawyers island. I don’t want that in Disneyland, but it is the ultimately problem.

What I think DLF in theory finally provides is an honest to goodness means of dumping guests out of the park without doing the trudge from Tiana to Main Street. If a fourth entry point can occur to Galaxies Edge behind Pooh, traffic might finally (partially) go somewhere else.

 

[BrianLo]

Are you saying that Disneyland didn't get new attractions over the last 25 years? I'm confused if you are, because that's very easily debunked.

Disneyland really went from 1995-2019 between major additions. That’s the window I'm referring to. Because the five year ramp to DCA began in 1996. Of course Rocket rods represents the half baked garbage that we see as the spending off-ramp to a new gate starts. Very reminiscent of Villains Con and Dreamworks Land.

Based on his findings, additions may be fixed, but what you are omitting is the massive burst of new attractions DLR obtained when DCA opened, which increased DLR's total overall attraction count in one year. Instead of the status quo remaining with fixed incremental additions and no sudden burst of 10+ attractions in one year.

No, that’s exactly what I am acknowledging. Investment concentrate around a single pinch point in time. People love that, they are addicted to that rush. But it makes the before and after quite the sad void. In my opinion at least.

Eventually, one hopes that many years later the investment finally pays off and they can float a faster pace resort wide.

I prefer the steady drip-drip. I even have that criticism of Fantasy Springs in the aggregate. Given me a bolus when the first (or second) gate is truly ready for a drought.

 

[coffeefan]

Disneyland really went from 1995-2019 between major additions. That’s the window I'm referring to. Because the five year ramp to DCA began in 1996. Of course Rocket rods represents the half baked garbage that we see as the spending off-ramp to a new gate starts. Very reminiscent of Villains Con and Dreamworks Land.

I think that has more to do with how successful Indy was. As a local, Indy and Splash were instant classics (similar to the RSR effect with a lingering impact).

Below are the attractions added to Disneyland during that period. Now you can differentiate between expansions and replacements, but that happens at any park, even single park resorts.

1995 – Indiana Jones Adventure
1995 - The Spirit of Pocahontas
1998 - Animazement – The Musical
1998 – Astro Orbitor
1998 – Honey, I Shrunk the Audience
1998 – Rocket Rods
1999 – Tarzan's Treehouse
2004 - Snow White: An Enchanting Musical
2005 – Buzz Lightyear Astro Blasters
2007 – Finding Nemo Submarine Voyage
2007 – Pirate's Lair on Tom Sawyer Island
2011 – Star Tours – The Adventures Continue
2013 - Fantasy Faire
2013 – Mickey and the Magical Map
2019 – Millennium Falcon: Smugglers Run
2020 – Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance

And more parades, shows, and nighttime spectaculars.

No, that’s exactly what I am acknowledging. Investment concentrate around a single pinch point in time. People love that, they are addicted to that rush. But it makes the before and after quite the sad void. In my opinion at least.

Eventually, one hopes that many years later the investment finally pays off and they can float a faster pace resort wide.

I prefer the steady drip-drip. I even have that criticism of Fantasy Springs in the aggregate. Given me a bolus when the first (or second) gate is truly ready for a drought.

I think the most quantifiable way to illustrate it is to see the total number of attractions for Disneyland Resort over the years:

Attractions:

• 1960: 45
• 1970: 45
• 1980: 42
• 1990: 48
• 2001: 72 (Opening of Disney California Adventure)
• 2010: 79
• 2021: 86
• 2025: 100+

Rides:

• 1960: 28
• 1970: 32
• 1980: 35
• 1990: 38
• 2001: 59 (Opening of Disney California Adventure)
• 2010: 63
• 2021: 71
• 2025: 74

 

[BrianLo]

I think that has more to do with how successful Indy was. As a local, Indy and Splash were instant classics (similar to the RSR effect with a lingering impact).

Below are the attractions added to Disneyland during that period. Now you can differentiate between expansions and replacements, but that happens at any park, even single park resorts.

1995 – Indiana Jones Adventure
1995 - The Spirit of Pocahontas
1998 - Animazement – The Musical
1998 – Astro Orbitor
1998 – Honey, I Shrunk the Audience
1998 – Rocket Rods
1999 – Tarzan's Treehouse
2004 - Snow White: An Enchanting Musical
2005 – Buzz Lightyear Astro Blasters
2007 – Finding Nemo Submarine Voyage
2007 – Pirate's Lair on Tom Sawyer Island
2011 – Star Tours – The Adventures Continue
2013 - Fantasy Faire
2013 – Mickey and the Magical Map
2019 – Millennium Falcon: Smugglers Run
2020 – Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance

You are seemingly making an argument based on volume rather than quality. Nothing between 96-2018 as I mentioned meets my benchmark of major projects, which doesn’t mean I have disdain for it all. This is a bad dry spell compared to the lovely drip-drip of Star Tours to Splash to Fantasmic to Toontown to Indy in a much shorter window of time, before DCA arrived on the scene and sucked the air out of the room for decades.

Walt Disney World is currently more or less building what constitutes a new gate by modern standards between ~2024-2030 and we may very well not be privy to it all.

-2 Lightening lane new build Coasters
-2 Lightening lane new build major Dark Rides (one park signature)
-1 more major new build hybrid Terrain Ride, also for LL.
-1 night parade.
-1 large new build revenue / DVC hotel complex
-3 or 4 new shows / 1 or 2 video shows
-3 flat rides
-Retail and dining to match.

This coincidentally is not far off Epic or even current day DAK.

If management decided in 23/24 they wanted a 5th gate in ~2029-30 instead, how much of this pipeline survives? Is your argument it all survives?

I’ve left off about 11 further moderate to major overhauls of existing rides/attractions. That’s much more the “extra” that you are focused and framing your argument around and ignoring the bigger picture.