Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Stripes]

Which of these things is not like the other?

Spider-Man is being distributed by Sony (though its a Marvel Studios production), the others are produced and distributed by Disney?

Toy Story 5 is animated, the others are live-action?

The Marvel and Toy Story properties sell significant merchandise, which is not the case for The Devil Wears Prada?

The images in the post used accurate images for each film, except Doomsday where they oddly showed the Infinity War poster?

 

[Stripes]

 

[Disney Analyst]

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Wicked: For Good has passed $500 million worldwide

If it makes another $9 million domestically, it will be Universal's highest grossing release of the year in the USA

(It made $5.2 million this weekend)

It joins the first movie in being among the top 10 Broadway adaptations when adjusting for inflation

Tuesday is the movie's digital release

 

[DKampy]

For whatever the reason… this is the healthiest the box office has felt since the pandemic…. I know movies usually have longer legs during the holidays…. But nothing feels like an outright flop…. With most either grossing on the high end or beating their projections this weekend and everything holding very well from last weekend…. The closest to a flop would be SpongeBob…for a family familar IP that did not open great..but it did have a good hold this weekend

 

[BrianLo]

Wicked: For Good has passed $500 million worldwide

If it makes another $9 million domestically, it will be Universal's highest grossing release of the year in the USA

(It made $5.2 million this weekend)

It joins the first movie in being among the top 10 Broadway adaptations when adjusting for inflation

Tuesday is the movie's digital release

If I was in charge, which I’m not, I’d walk away with my Cheque into the sunset and maybe build a land. But they are going to fantastic beasts this franchise instead. They’ll pay the consequences. Unless the plan is to bring the three leads back, which is a calculated risk.

Hindsight of course is Disney having done this on things like Alice or Lion King.

 

[BrianLo]

For whatever the reason… this is the healthiest the box office has felt since the pandemic…. I know movies usually have longer legs during the holidays…. But nothing feels like an outright flop…. With most either grossing on the high end or beating their projections this weekend and everything holding very well from last weekend…. The closest to a flop would be SpongeBob…for a family familar IP that did not open great..but it did have a good hold this weekend

I wonder if the natural conclusion of the theatrical landscape is a retrenchment back to summer and the holidays. With all the shed product allowing fewer leaner studios to stick to those windows.

 

[BrianLo]

At the top end of the 55-65 range from the tweet you were chastised for on Tuesday.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

Wicked: For Good has passed $500 million worldwide

If it makes another $9 million domestically, it will be Universal's highest grossing release of the year in the USA

(It made $5.2 million this weekend)

It joins the first movie in being among the top 10 Broadway adaptations when adjusting for inflation

Tuesday is the movie's digital release

I’m still surprised this is going to make less than the first, I thought it would benefit from people who found it via streaming.

With only 1 year between releases, same time of year, no major changes in streaming or theater habits… I’m honestly not sure why it dropped off so much, I thought this was an easy money maker for Universal.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Which of these things is not like the other?

The first. It is enumerated by an odd number, while the others are even.

 

[DKampy]

I wonder if the natural conclusion of the theatrical landscape is a retrenchment back to summer and the holidays. With all the shed product allowing fewer leaner studios to stick to those windows.

I do think part of it could be the time of year… with much of the country taking vacation during the holidays, with family, having some free, and I believe the holidays is the one and only time some people go to the movies…

It may also help there is something for everyone right now Avatar the four quadrant family,, Anaconda: the silly comedy, Housemaid: the thriller/horror, Somg Sung Blue: The older adult and Marty Supreme: The awards crowd… plus you still have films like Zootopia sticking around… I am actually surprised Avatar is the only blockbuster chasing film released in the Christmas corridor

My Wife’s mom was a huge Neil Diamond fan and recently died so she really wanted to see Song Sung Blue…. But when we were going to purchase Tickets it was completely sold out except for the front 2 rows…. Caught me off guard… as that movie is in the lower part of the top 10 this week and I tried to purchase four or five hours before the movie set release time… so we are seeing Anaconda instead…. Hopefully it is ok… I can see it going either way

 

[Disney Irish]

Just remember that Avatar has no cultural impact and is an IP that no one cares about, or so some claim.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

I’m still surprised this is going to make less than the first, I thought it would benefit from people who found it via streaming.

With only 1 year between releases, same time of year, no major changes in streaming or theater habits… I’m honestly not sure why it dropped off so much, I thought this was an easy money maker for Universal.

Act 2 of Wicked has always been thought of as the lesser of the two, as is often the case with stage musicals

It's also a more serious, less "fun" movie, and intentionally so. Not something you'd want to rewatch as often.

Most of the big moments, famous songs etc happen in the first act, which people already saw

 

[Disney Irish]

I do think part of it could be the time of year… with much of the country taking vacation during the holidays, with family, having some free, and I believe the holidays is the one and only time some people go to the movies…

It may also help there is something for everyone right now Avatar the four quadrant family,, Anaconda: the silly comedy, Housemaid: the thriller/horror, Somg Sung Blue: The older adult and Marty Supreme: The awards crowd… plus you still have films like Zootopia sticking around… I am actually surprised Avatar is the only blockbuster chasing film released in the Christmas corridor

My Wife’s mom was a huge Neil Diamond fan and recently died so she really wanted to see Song Sung Blue…. But when we were going to purchase Tickets it was completely sold out except for the front 2 rows…. Caught me off guard… as that movie is in the lower part of the top 10 this week and I tried to purchase four or five hours before the movie set release time… so we are seeing Anaconda instead…. Hopefully it is ok… I can see it going either way

Just FYI, what many don't realize (not saying you don't), Song Sung Blue isn't about Neil Diamond, its about a Neil Diamond husband and wife (wife is a Patsy Cline impersonator) cover band from the late 80s/early 90s called Lightning and Thunder and their story.

I think its doing well because many thought it was a Neil Diamond biography.

 

[BrianLo]

Just remember that Avatar has no cultural impact and is an IP that no one cares about, or so some claim.

 

[BrianLo]

Fire and Ash is a four part race. Just looking at domestic figures - The opening weekend (+45M for WoW), Christmas week (+1M for Fire and Ash), New Years week and then the month of January.

I still don’t think it’s going to entirely close the out of the gate pace, nor start keeping pace, but this Christmas week has really given it a lot of buffer. I suspect New Years week tips back to Way of Waters favour more heavily, putting it back on its high 1.XB course.

Though if the pace matches that really puts 2B back on the table.

—

Zootopia 2 on the other hand appears to be making a run at Inside Out 2. It’s holding up splendidly.

These two movies combined are going to reach towards 3.5B. The forward projections on their last quarterly were wildly off the mark.

 

[AdventureHasAName]

Just remember that Avatar has no cultural impact and is an IP that no one cares about, or so some claim.

I personally don't get it. I saw the first film and did not like it. I could not tell you the name of a single character in that film. I don't know anyone personally that has ever said they enjoyed any of the Avatar films - none of my friends, family or co-workers. I don't know anyone who has ever mentioned looking forward to seeing any of these films.

I'm 50 years old and have 13 nieces and nephews between 30 years old and 15 years old. I talk pop culture with them constantly. Endless conversations about the MCU, Star Wars, Stranger Things, Game of Thrones, Harry Potter (they talk about it; I find it disinteresting), Lord of the Rings ... I can't ever remember having a conversation related to Avatar.

Yet, someone is watching these films because they make a ton of money.

 

[BrianLo]

Yet, someone is watching these films because they make a ton of money.

I think it’s the Yellowstone baby boomer crowd. Something else that is huge, but barely has an internet or young pop culture footprint.

Then of course it’s because it plays exceedingly strongly to non-English foreign audiences. Most of those things you list are indeed bigger English language domestic plays, but Avatar really rakes in overseas.

 

[Disney Analyst]

I asked ChatGPT to help me model, this could end up in a 20-25% less than WoW scenario, which gets it to 1.7-1.9 billion still.

 

[TP2000]

A quick Mid-Holiday Box Office update, gang.

But first, a Pop Quiz: Did you get your NYE outfit dropped off at the dry cleaners in time to pick it up by Tuesday?!? I did. If you failed this Pop Quiz, you still have time tomorrow morning first thing!

Burbank had the number one and number two movies at the American box office this mid-holiday weekend, which has got to feel nice for them after the roller coaster year they had with more dips than crests.

Have a happy New Year celebration everyone! Don't forget Uber/Lyft are your friends this week, even with surge pricing!

The Numbers - Weekend Box Office Chart for February 27, 2026

Weekend Domestic Box Office Chart for the weekend of February 27, 2026

www.the-numbers.com