Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disney Analyst]

Found it

 

[DKampy]

They do happen…no argument

Avatar is more of a tent pole…it actually now clears the release schedule - as Star Wars once did - so there will be a lot of scrutiny it if ends low

They all failed…so what would be the difference?

So how much do you need to consider Avatar a hit….2 billion…. Because I think most here are in agreement it won’t top the last Avatar…. 2 billion dollar movies are an anomaly…. The last had the advantage that people waited 13 years to have that experience again in theaters…. There are usually at least 1 or 2 movies that have great legs over the holiday season…. And given Avatar’s history at the box office… there is no reason to doubt this one won’t

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

So how much do you need to consider Avatar a hit….2 billion…. Because I think most here are in agreement it won’t top the last Avatar…. 2 billion dollar movies are an anomaly…. The last had the advantage that people waited 13 years to have that experience again in theaters…. There are usually at least 1 or 2 movies that have great legs over the holiday season…. And given Avatar’s history at the box office… there is no reason to doubt this one won’t

I think $1.5 global and 500+ domestic would be a strong showing given the state of the box office/tech patterns as it currently stands

 

[Disney Analyst]

I think $1.5 global and 500+ domestic would be a strong showing given the state of the box office/tech patterns as it currently stands

I’m seeing a lot of box office folks on X predicting at least 1.5, some even think 1.8-1.9.

Gonna have to watch the way this ash blows.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I’m seeing a lot of box office folks on X predicting at least 1.5, some even think 1.8-1.9.

Gonna have to watch the way this ash blows.

My take is that level shows sustained franchise appeal. Because the audience has been More fickle post plague for franchises…it seems?

 

[Disney Analyst]

My take is that level shows sustained franchise appeal. Because the audience has been More fickle post plague for franchises…it seems?

It will certainly be interesting to watch. If it hits 1.5 I’d say more movies are for sure coming.

Europe and Asia seem to be embracing it widely still, American audiences I’m not quite sure what’s happening anymore.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It will certainly be interesting to watch. If it hits 1.5 I’d say more movies are for sure coming.

Europe and Asia seem to be embracing it widely still, American audiences I’m not quite sure what’s happening anymore.

In general? Americans as a whole are WAY out of money
So like travel…movie tickets are a painless thing to dump.

Disney has kinda overextended their brand too. Trying to raise praises and being repetitive with product seems to not be resonating. That could change - however.

 

[DKampy]

Also I wonder if people not wanting to travel to the US right now could be improving the box office over seas…. Could be more disposable cash there

 

[Disney Analyst]

In general? Americans as a whole are WAY out of money
So like travel…movie tickets are a painless thing to dump.

Disney has kinda overextended their brand too. Trying to raise praises and being repetitive with product seems to not be resonating. That could change - however.

It certainly seems like Americans are suffering with the cost of living greatly still - I mean it’s an issue everywhere, but Americans seem to be feeling it most of all.

I thought prices were meant to be better by now?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It certainly seems like Americans are suffering with the cost of living greatly still - I mean it’s an issue everywhere, but Americans seem to be feeling it most of all.

It’s been in the news…

I thought prices were meant to be better by now?

Just getting started…unfortunately

 

[Disney Analyst]

1 billion by New Years weekend.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

1 billion by New Years weekend.

Two weekends from now? That doesn’t bode well for a high tally in the end

 

[Disney Irish]

Two weekends from now? That doesn’t bode well for a high tally in the end

That would be about the same amount of time that Avatar 2 hit $1B, ie ~14 days.

 

[Disney Analyst]

That would be about the same amount of time that Avatar 2 hit $1B, ie ~14 days.

It’s déjà vu.

I’m not saying the third instalment will do as well as the first two, I’m not sure anyone thought it would, but I also recall similar ‘failure’ narratives around Way of Water in its early weeks, only for it to show exceptionally strong legs through January.

I have little doubt this film will be viewed as a success.

 

[Disney Irish]

Found it

45% drop, better than the 56% drop from Avatar 2.

 

[Disney Irish]

It’s déjà vu.

I’m not saying the third instalment will do as well as the first two, I’m not sure anyone thought it would, but I also recall similar ‘failure’ narratives around Way of Water in its early weeks, only for it to show exceptionally strong legs through January.

I have little doubt this film will be viewed as a success.

Agreed, I feel like I'm living in Groundhog Day.

 

[Disney Analyst]

Agreed, I feel like I'm living in Groundhog Day.

See this:

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It’s déjà vu.

I’m not saying the third instalment will do as well as the first two, I’m not sure anyone thought it would, but I also recall similar ‘failure’ narratives around Way of Water in its early weeks, only for it to show exceptionally strong legs through January.

I have little doubt this film will be viewed as a success.

My respect for avatar is on much solid ground now compared to part 2

Because the first was an “event” movie. It wasn’t widely regarded for story…but visual arts

Now the parameters have evolved. Which happens in life from time to time

 

[coffeefan]

 

[BrianLo]

The point you’re making is Mufasa is that one “a-ha!!” Example

Christmas is a little different…but really these flix have the same patterns more or less. They hit the wall quickly…it just bears out.

I do respect the point you are making, it’s not meant to be a Hail Mary pass that there’s an exception and therefore this might be the exception when it clearly won’t be.

However, there is pretty much ALWAYS one holiday movie a year that breaks into ridiculous multiples. Twice in history that has been an Avatar film. So it’s not so much a Hail Mary as looking at the current release landscape and picking the one film that probably again fits the profile.

Avatar though legged out to like 13X times. We certainly aren’t expecting that, we’re just expecting similar legs to the sequel.