Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Serpico Jones]

Netflix just recently got into the theme park space with their Netflix House locations. So I would imagine if they do make a play for Disney it would be for the whole company including Parks.

Going to cost a damn fortune.

 

[Disney Irish]

Going to cost a damn fortune.

Maybe, but if they really feel confident that they need to combine with a studio in order to compete and Disney is the next best option I don’t see them having an issue spending money.

You seem to think there is a limit on money here. This isn’t the Hollywood of old, this is the new arms race where money is no object. These are mega deals that’ll go for hundreds of Billions if needed.

 

[Disney Irish]

LISTEN: Cinema United Chief Michael O’Leary on the Threat to Moviegoing From Netflix Buying Warner Bros.: ‘We Cannot Survive Simply on Blockbusters’

On 'Daily Variety' podcast, Cinema United chief Michael O'Leary discusses the reaction among exhibitors to the Netflix-Warner Bros. Discovery news.

variety.com

 

[Disney Irish]

BTW, WBD is about to hit $30/share.

Investors are confident that new bids will be made. So no matter what both Netflix and Paramount are going to have to raise their bids pretty soon.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Movie Theaters Dread Any Warner Bros. Merger, Fear “Tipping Point” Where Whole System “Crumbles”

Cinema owners oppose a megadeal that would see one of the last Hollywood legacy studios snapped up only five years after the demise of 20th Century Fox: "We have fixed costs."

www.hollywoodreporter.com

I love how people say things like "there's going to be less movies like when Disney acquired fox" . But where's the numbers? 20th century and Searchlight have been putting out tons of movies.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Reportedly Netflix wants WB to get into the theatrical business…. I will believe it when I see it

Reportedly? They have promised Warner Brothers to continue the contractual obligations of producing theatrical and they've been saying over and over that they're going to get into the theatrical business.

 

[Disney Irish]

I love how people say things like "there's going to be less movies like when Disney acquired fox" . But where's the numbers? 20th century and Searchlight have been putting out tons of movies.

"Ton of movies" doesn't mean the same amount though that was produced prior to the acquisition.

Also when you have a company who's current sole business is outside of theatrical and has made public comments just this year that theatrical is an outdated and outmoded model, I think theater owners have a right to be concerned.

Reportedly? They have promised Warner Brothers to continue the contractual obligations of producing theatrical and they've been saying over and over that they're going to get into the theatrical business.

Promises like that are about as good as the paper they are written on. Even if they still release to theaters in the short term doesn't mean they are pledging to keep the same theatrical window. We already have examples of them telling theater owners no when they requested longer windows for KPop and Wake Up Dead Man just this year. So they aren't for a longer theatrical window, they want to shorten it or eliminate it completely.

That doesn't sound like they are serious about being in theatrical to me.

 

[DKampy]

Reportedly? They have promised Warner Brothers to continue the contractual obligations of producing theatrical and they've been saying over and over that they're going to get into the theatrical business.

I know they said it…. But I am uneasy about whether they will or not…. I feel confident they will honor the previous contracs…however after that I am not sure…. They have been consistent in their messaging about having no interest in Theatrical including comments from earlier this year…. This would be a complete about face for the company

Frankenstein and Knives Out should have had a wider release if Netflix was truly interested in theatrical…. Both films were limited to small chains/independent theaters….. they left money on the table for sure…which they don’t even report the profits

 

[MisterPenguin]

"Ton of movies" doesn't mean the same amount though that was produced prior to the acquisition.

Also when you have a company who's current sole business is outside of theatrical and has made public comments just this year that theatrical is an outdated and outmoded model, I think theater owners have a right to be concerned.


Promises like that are about as good as the paper they are written on. Even if they still release to theaters in the short term doesn't mean they are pledging to keep the same theatrical window. We already have examples of them telling theater owners no when they requested longer windows for KPop and Wake Up Dead Man just this year. So they aren't for a longer theatrical window, they want to shorten it or eliminate it completely.

That doesn't sound like they are serious about being in theatrical to me.

Your argument is:

They've said stuff in the past that would contradict their promise to get into theatrical.

But, you're forgetting that in the past they said they wouldn't acquire any other media companies, and well, here we are.

You can trust their change of mind because they've demonstrated their willingness to change their mind.

 

[Disney Irish]

Your argument is:

They've said stuff in the past that would contradict their promise to get into theatrical.

But, you're forgetting that in the past they said they wouldn't acquire any other media companies, and well, here we are.

You can trust their change of mind because they've demonstrated their willingness to change their mind.

Past, as recently as 2 weeks ago.

As the saying goes, if a person is showing you who they are with their actions then believe them.

 

[Andrew C]

Comcast is going to swoop back in and save the day. Greatest comeback story of all time.

 

[Nevermore525]

I love how people say things like "there's going to be less movies like when Disney acquired fox" . But where's the numbers? 20th century and Searchlight have been putting out tons of movies.

They’ve still put out movies but the total productions that released in theaters by Disney/Fox has been close to half maybe even less than half in some years, post acquisition. Haven’t done a deep dive but just 20th Century alone was putting out 10+ films in theaters prior to the merger and now it’s around 3-5 a year.

Searchlight is a mixed bag on how different it is.

 

[coffeefan]

Campea makes some good points on Netflix buying WB.

 

[coffeefan]

Also, this segment on James Gunn might be of interest based on recent discussions.

 

[Serpico Jones]

WBD board seems to think some of the money in the Ellison bid was bogus somehow. It’ll be interesting to read their explanation next week.

 

[BrianLo]

I made the comment in another part of the forums, that if Netflix loses WBD I could see them making a play for Disney. Whether that would get past regulators or not is another question.

If Disney was given the same multiple as WBD, it would be a trillion dollar acquisition. If I want to be more charitable to WBD and reduce it to revenue, Disney would cost 450B to acquire.

I'm not sure if the point of that tweet was Disney is a good stock pick or its current market cap in any way reflects what it would sell for (it wouldn't). Netflix cannot afford Disney or vis versa. We're talking about something at least 5x more expensive and the largest acquisition of all time. Disney is nearly off the table for anyone unless someone internally wants to start breaking it up for parts or a magnificent 7 company is at the table.

 

[BrianLo]

I love how people say things like "there's going to be less movies like when Disney acquired fox" . But where's the numbers? 20th century and Searchlight have been putting out tons of movies.

20th Century was putting out 20-24 films in the 2010's. Under Disney it has now been 5-9. Searchlight 10, now 5-ish

Arguably that's probably not an incorrect strategy nor for sure bad for theatres. It's how Iger has structured around a less is more tentpole approach and they always bring in the most revenue despite running the leanest films. At the end of the day distributors care most about tickets sold. But it wasn't an incorrect fear, they did significantly reduce volume by 300%.

Edit - I realized this includes re-releases and holdovers, but the point I think gets across that there has been a big reduction.

 

[BrianLo]

I really haven't waded into Netflix yet, I'm still not sure how I feel about it. I think the truth is in the middle. I don't think Netflix is acquiring with the intent of fully eliminating theatrical output. That also doesn't mean the they'll release dozens of films like Warner has in the past.

I tend to believe Iger that the metrics of a movie being released theatrically generally gives the perception of higher value and therefore it also plays better in the streaming landscape longterm. Most of Netflix direct to streaming films are empty calories people forgot about instantly. For that reason I think whether the words are empty or not, Netflix long term might see the value in keeping some theatrical in a way they hadn't experienced before.

It seems everyone is way more negative about Netflix than I thought they were, in the broad sense. It's certainly not my favourite streamer, but the anger at it is surprising me.

 

[Disney Irish]

WBD board seems to think some of the money in the Ellison bid was bogus somehow. It’ll be interesting to read their explanation next week.

If there is concern, haven’t actually seen any legitimate reporting on it, then they can ask for guarantees such as an increase in breakup fees, getting further underwriting from specific banks, etc.

Also remember this is being taken right to shareholders and circumventing the board at this point. If they decide that the Paramount offer is better and sell to them there is nothing WBD BoD can do.

 

[Disney Irish]

20th Century was putting out 20-24 films in the 2010's. Under Disney it has now been 5-9. Searchlight 10, now 5-ish

Arguably that's probably not an incorrect strategy nor for sure bad for theatres. It's how Iger has structured around a less is more tentpole approach and they always bring in the most revenue despite running the leanest films. At the end of the day distributors care most about tickets sold. But it wasn't an incorrect fear, they did significantly reduce volume by 300%.

Edit - I realized this includes re-releases and holdovers, but the point I think gets across that there has been a big reduction.

The point I think the theater owners are making, and its not an insignificant point, is they can't survive on the big tentpoles alone. That along with the tentpoles you need to fill out the schedule with the small to medium budget films, ie the ones that have been reduced to almost nothing in the market at this point and that primarily go to streamers like Netflix instead.

We've had similar discussions in this and other threads on this very topic over the last few years. So its not like this is all of a sudden a new fear that is somehow unfounded.