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Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

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Serpico Jones

Well-Known Member
Disney Irish said:
Yes, Paramount met that with an all cash offer of $30/share, Netflix did not. Netflix's bid was $27.75/share in a mix of cash and stock.
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Netflix did not bid for the entire company, WBD will be able to sell the cable channels for an additional $3-5 a share, not the $1 a share that Ellison has claimed in his tantrums.

The Netflix offer is superior which is why they were chosen.
 
Disney Irish

Disney Irish

Premium Member
Serpico Jones said:
Netflix did not bid for the entire company, WBD will be able to sell the cable channels for an additional $3-5 a share, not the $1 a share that Ellison has claimed in his tantrums.

The Netflix offer is superior which is why they were chosen.
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That makes an assumption on the value of those assets which are not backed by anyone. Wall St so far has valued the linear assets at $2-3/share not $3-5. Also last I checked $30-$27.75 was $2.25, meaning Paramount's bid is within that $2-3/share that is believed to be fetched for the linear assets.

Also if WBD BoD wanted $33-$35/share for the entire company because they think the linear assets are valued higher than what Paramount values them as, then why didn't they ask Paramount to increase their bid? I'm sure they would have increased it if asked.

Hence why Paramount is going directly to the shareholders. WBD BoD isn't looking out for the best interest of the shareholders.
 
BrianLo

BrianLo

Well-Known Member
TalkingHead said:
Interesting that domestically Zoo 2 is lagging behind Moana 2’s pace by a not-insignificant amount.
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I’ll throw back to our earlier conversation, Moana was always domestically poised to be the bigger franchise, but Zoo had that International wildcard in its favour. Mild Avatar energy.

BrianLo said:
Definitely will come from the International markets (if it does).

Zootopia is the second highest original animated box office of all time after Frozen, which I think is a factor often overlooked. If you adjust for inflation it starts to fall behind Lion King and Nemo - but still. It did really well internationally.
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Casper Gutman

Casper Gutman

Well-Known Member
coffeefan said:
Remember when you believed Ellison about not using Saudi blood money? Maybe your instincts are wrong again on this topic.

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The details of the Paramount consortium and the promises it has made to various groups are cataclysmic. As deeply awful as it is and as much as it runs completely against my love of film a Netflix acquisition is almost certainly preferable.
 
S

Serpico Jones

Well-Known Member
Disney Irish said:
That makes an assumption on the value of those assets which are not backed by anyone. Wall St so far has valued the linear assets at $2-3/share not $3-5. Also last I checked $30-$27.75 was $2.25, meaning Paramount's bid is within that $2-3/share that is believed to be fetched for the linear assets.

Also if WBD BoD wanted $33-$35/share for the entire company because they think the linear assets are valued higher than what Paramount values them as, then why didn't they ask Paramount to increase their bid? I'm sure they would have increased it if asked.

Hence why Paramount is going directly to the shareholders. WBD BoD isn't looking out for the best interest of the shareholders.
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You think people have $20 billion just lying around? The Ellison group had a hard time putting together the $30 offer. Most of the WBD stock is owned by Newhouse, Vanguard and BlackRock, all of whom have executives who sit on the WBD board and were part of the decision to sell the company to Netflix.
 
Disney Irish

Disney Irish

Premium Member
Serpico Jones said:
You think people have $20 billion just lying around? The Ellison group had a hard time putting together the $30 offer. Most of the WBD stock is owned by Newhouse, Vanguard and BlackRock, all of whom have executives who sit on the WBD board and were part of the decision to sell the company to Netflix.
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Very few people on the planet have that kind of cash lying around, not even Netflix. Netflix is also having to go get a $59B unsecured bridge loan financing from multiple banks to make this deal, among the largest in the industry. So they are also going into debt over this.

Blackrock and Vanguard are also some of the largest shareholders in Paramount too. They are the largest shareholder of almost all public companies, including Netflix, almost as if its a conflict of interest. So they win either way.

So what is your point?
 
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S

Serpico Jones

Well-Known Member
Disney Irish said:
Very few people on the planet have that kind of cash lying around, not even Netflix. Netflix is also having to go get a $59B unsecured bridge loan financing from multiple banks to make this deal, among the largest in the industry. So they are also going into debt over this.

Blackrock and Vanguard are also some of the largest shareholders in Paramount too. They are the largest shareholder of almost all public companies, including Netflix, almost as if its a conflict of interest. So they win either way.

So what is your point?
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To win they would need to get to $35 which will not be easy. Shareholders are not going to care about Ellison’s sob stories.

And this is a group that had a hard time putting together the deal for $30.
 
Disney Irish

Disney Irish

Premium Member
Serpico Jones said:
To win they would need to get to $35 which will not be easy. Shareholders are not going to care about Ellison’s sob stories.

And this is a group that had a hard time putting together the deal for $30.
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I don't know where you're coming up with that number, as you're the only one I've seen on the internet say that specific number. That would indicate that WBD is valuing the linear assets at close to $7/share, not happening. As again Wall St has indicated that the linear assets would likely fetch $2-3/share in the open market making it a max of $31-32/share combined. But even if that is what WBD wants because they value the linear assets as higher, then request either to raise their bids and let whomever has the higher offer win out. Also I don't think the Ellison's will have any issue securing additional financing if they need it, they already have indicated they can go above $30/share if needed. And I expect them to increase it, as the current $30/share is likely just the beginning. Its classic Ellison negotiating, you start low and come up as needed. If you'd followed the families history in business you'd know that. So no they didn't have an issue putting together $30/share, don't believe whatever Reddit you got that from. This is one of the richest families on the planet. They just weren't going to go right out give the highest offer they could the first time. $30/share wasn't even their best and final offer either, they were never allowed to give one because WBD never asked for one.

Also again this isn't about "sob stories". Its about what is best for the shareholders and the industry. If the BoD really feels that the Netflix deal is the best then let the shareholders decide between the two and whomever they vote for wins. But to not give the shareholders a choice, especially when one is potentially higher than the other, is just wrong.
 
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S

Serpico Jones

Well-Known Member
Disney Irish said:
I don't know where you're coming up with that number, as you're the only one I've seen on the internet say that specific number. That would indicate that WBD is valuing the linear assets at close to $7/share, not happening. As again Wall St has indicated that the linear assets would likely fetch $2-3/share in the open market making it a max of $31-32/share combined. But even if that is what WBD wants because they value the linear assets as higher, then request either to raise their bids and let whomever has the higher offer win out. Also I don't think the Ellison's will have any issue securing additional financing if they need it, they already have indicated they can go above $30/share if needed. And I expect them to increase it, as the current $30/share is likely just the beginning. Its classic Ellison negotiating, you start low and come up as needed. If you'd followed the families history in business you'd know that. So no they didn't have an issue putting together $30/share, don't believe whatever Reddit you got that from. This is one of the richest families on the planet. They just weren't going to go right out give the highest offer they could the first time. $30/share wasn't even their best and final offer either.

Also again this isn't about "sob stories". Its about what is best for the shareholders and the industry. If the BoD really feels that the Netflix deal is the best then let the shareholders decide between the two and whomever they vote for wins. But to not give the shareholders a choice, especially when one is potentially higher than the other, is just wrong.
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Paramount will have to pay the nearly $3 billion break up fee. Larry isn’t going to sell more of his Oracle stock to fund his son’s misadventures, at least I personally would be shocked if he did. He only put up $11 billion of his own money in the current bid.
 
Disney Irish

Disney Irish

Premium Member
Serpico Jones said:
Paramount will have to pay the nearly $3 billion break up fee. Larry isn’t going to sell more of his Oracle stock to fund his son’s misadventures, at least I personally would be shocked if he did. He only put up $11 billion of his own money in the current bid.
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Then you don't know Larry very well. Also he doesn't have to sell stock, that is not what the rich do. They leverage its future value to get more money, Elon has been doing that for decades. So he doesn't have to sell one bit of stock to finance this.

Also do you really think Larry is the only money they have access to? You're talking about the 2nd richest family in the world, they have access to tap into wealth all around the world through many contacts.
 

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