Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disney Analyst]

I take it you have never played the game.

Never haha.

 

[Casper Gutman]

Five Nights at Freddy's 2 now estimated to open with $63 million, higher than previously expected

Zootopia 2 had the 2nd best opening for a Hollywood film ever in Japan ($12.3 million), behind only Frozen 2

Wicked: For Good has now made $440 million worldwide, but won't be released in Japan until March 6

But people don’t want to go to the movies.

 

[Phroobar]

But people don’t want to go to the movies.

Much less horror movies. That's a dead genre....

 

[TP2000]

First pass box office is in for this weekend! Did you guys decorate your Christmas trees, or did you go to the movies?

Another question... what is the production budget for Zootopia 2? It isn't listed on The Numbers site, which is really unusual for a big tent pole from a major studio like this. An 8 second Google search brought up nothing but guesses from the kids on Reddit. Anyone seen anything even semi-official at what the production budget might have been for Zootopia 2???

How am I supposed to make the blinky lights in the Global Command Center blink if we don't know the production budget?

The Numbers - Weekend Box Office Chart for February 27, 2026

Weekend Domestic Box Office Chart for the weekend of February 27, 2026

www.the-numbers.com

 

[TP2000]

May need to update your tracker @TP2000

I'm on it!

"Disney was reimbursed $48.6 million (£38.3 million) for the movie bringing its net spending down to just $181 million which was a dream ticket for the studio." -Forbes Magazine, December 3rd 2025

So if we credit that $48 Million love gift to Burbank from the British Treasury and the UK taxpayers, we get this result...

Fantastic Four '25: Production $181, Box Office $520 = $34 Million Profit

‘The Fantastic Four’ On Track To Be One Of Disney's Cheapest Marvel Movies

The Fantastic Four: First Steps cost less to film than any of the other Marvel Cinematic Universe superhero movies Disney has made in the United Kingdom over the past decade.

www.forbes.com

 

[DKampy]

It seems an odd time to drop Five Nights… why December?

My best guess…. Universal/ blumhouse was promoting the Black Phone 2 in October… they knew that was the better movie and would probably have better legs… might as well drop FNoF on a lackluster week as they knew fans of the game would at least come out opening weekend

 

[TP2000]

Here's one I think we can file away into the history books for 2025; Searchlight Picture's Rental Family, starring Brendan Fraser.

Let's just assume its box office eventually gets to $10 Million by Christmas, and pack it away now.

Rental Family: Production $10, Box Office $10 = $8 Million Loss

 

[Disney Irish]

First pass box office is in for this weekend! Did you guys decorate your Christmas trees, or did you go to the movies?

Another question... what is the production budget for Zootopia 2? It isn't listed on The Numbers site, which is really unusual for a big tent pole from a major studio like this. An 8 second Google search brought up nothing but guesses from the kids on Reddit. Anyone seen anything even semi-official at what the production budget might have been for Zootopia 2???

How am I supposed to make the blinky lights in the Global Command Center blink if we don't know the production budget?

View attachment 896016

The Numbers - Weekend Box Office Chart for February 27, 2026

Weekend Domestic Box Office Chart for the weekend of February 27, 2026

www.the-numbers.com

$150M is what I've been reading for the budget, but nothing official.

Maybe Disney has gotten smart and stopped reporting budget numbers since they get conflated and misused anyways.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Another question... what is the production budget for Zootopia 2? It isn't listed on The Numbers site, which is really unusual for a big tent pole from a major studio like this. An 8 second Google search brought up nothing but guesses from the kids on Reddit. Anyone seen anything even semi-official at what the production budget might have been for Zootopia 2???

How am I supposed to make the blinky lights in the Global Command Center blink if we don't know the production budget?

Translation...

I need to know the budget so that, in some torturous fallacy, I can spin it into making Disney look bad.​

But, positing a non-zero chance you might be sincere...

$150M.

Now, the Academy Award-winning directing duo of Howard and Bush (Encanto), this time with acclaimed producer Yvett Merino (Moana 2, Big Hero 6), are back delivering the “wow factor” with Zootopia 2. Walt Disney Animation Studios’ $150-million sequel follows plucky bunny detective Judy Hopps (Ginnifer Goodwin) as she partners with the sly red fox Nick Wilde (Jason Bateman) for an undercover case to locate a mysterious blue serpent named Gary De’Snake (Ke Huy Quan), who’s been stirring up trouble in Zootopia.​

​

From here:​

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Establishing a secure connection ...

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​

"But China!!..." about to drop in 3, 2, 1....

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

Rumours of Gunn being pushed out feel pretty absurd.

He turned Guardians of the Galaxy, a pretty unknown property outside of comic book fans if I'm not mistaken, into one one of the biggest MCU franchises.

Those characters were important to the success of the Avengers juggernaut as well.

He made a well received Superman movie after the DCU was widely panned. The Snyder movies and Wonder Woman sequel were highly criticized.

He's a known name with a track record right now that most directors would be envious of. Who else has a similar streak of hit movies? What other current directors have the kind of name recognition that can sell a movie the way Spielberg did in his prime. Jordan Peele, Christopher Nolan, any others?

 

[TP2000]

Translation...

I need to know the budget so that, in some torturous fallacy, I can spin it into making Disney look bad.​

That cartoon has already crossed the $900 Million mark globally after just two weeks, so I don't know how anyone could "spin" that as anything but a huge box office success.

Unless, of course, Disney somehow spent $300-ish Million on it like it has done in recent years with some of its massive bombs.

But...

But, positing a non-zero chance you might be sincere...

$150M.

Really?! If so, that's great news! I don't want to jinx it here, but is Burbank perhaps finally learning? Are all the layoffs and downsizing of the past few years finally showing up in the bottom line? They normally spend $200 Million for these tent poles from WDAS and Pixar. $150 Million is a notably reduced budget.

Of course, the economic toll on SoCal's economy has been well documented; there's lots of empty storefronts in WeHo, abandoned condo towers in LA covered in graffiti, and Silver Lake brunch reservations are much easier to get now. But at least Burbank is learning to live within its means.

Do you think this might be permanent? Or did they just luck out with Zootopia 2's budget?

 

[BrianLo]

Do you think this might be permanent? Or did they just luck out with Zootopia 2's budget?

I think there was a concerted effort towards cost containment again. They were running 150-175M five years ago. Z2 is one of the first productions approved on Iger’s return, post pandemic and with hindsight from the 2023 pivot.

Even Elio is marginally contained given it was significantly delayed and retooled. Though is the end point of the Chapek / Daniel’s era pipeline.

 

[MisterPenguin]

‘Predator: Badlands’ Reigns As Highest Grossing In Franchise, Edging Out ‘Alien Vs. Predator’

20th Century Studios' Predator: Badlands is now the highest-grossing movie of the 38-year-old sci-fi franchise.

deadline.com

 

[Disney Irish]

Who could have seen this coming....

Paramount Launches Hostile Takeover Offer For Warner Bros. Discovery

Paramount announced it has commenced an all-cash tender offer to acquire all outstanding shares of Warner Bros. Discovery for $30 per share in cash.

deadline.com

 

[coffeefan]

Also there has been no indication that Paramount would delve into propaganda for any content, but guess we’ll see with that too.

Remember when you believed Ellison about not using Saudi blood money? Maybe your instincts are wrong again on this topic.

 

[Disney Irish]

Remember when you believed Ellison about not using Saudi blood money? Maybe your instincts are wrong again on this topic.

Only comment I made was what was reported at the time, which was that Paramount denied those initial reports. Never claimed they would never use such money. In fact I've said all along that the Ellison's have access to way more money than has been reported, upwards of $500B or more. Where do you think that money would come from?

Also if you go back to my comments, I said they would be minority shareholders not primary owners if such money was used. Meaning I've acknowledge the potential use of such money. So this isn't some gotcha that you think it is.

They would be minority stake holders here just if they bought a large enough block of shares on the open market, Paramount would be the primary owner in this situation.

And none of this have nothing to do with the comment you quoted. I won't get into specifics, but just look at the headlines today about someone being mad about a recent 60 Minutes interview. So yeah not quite the propaganda machine you believe it is.

 

[Serpico Jones]

WBD shareholders are not going to care about Ellison’s sob stories. If he wants to buy WBD at this point he’ll have to go up to $35 a share which will leave his company over leveraged. I hope the PSKY board gets him under control before his tantrums destroy the company.

 

[Disney Irish]

WBD shareholders are not going to care about Ellison’s sob stories. If he wants to buy WBD at this point he’ll have to go up to $35 a share which will leave his company over leveraged. I hope the PSKY board gets him under control before his tantrums destroy the company.

This isn't about sob stories, its about what is best for WBD shareholders and really the industry as a whole.

And if the bid needs to be increased, then it should have been requested by the WBD BoD instead of just closing all bids because they prefer one company over another. This is the whole point of why this is being taken directly to the shareholders, because the WBD BoD haven't kept the bidding process open.

 

[Disney Irish]

And just to show I'm fair about all this, Netflix is promising to keep theatrical if they win.

Ted Sarandos Tries To Assuage Fears That Netflix-Warner Bros Merger Will Collapse Theatrical: “We Didn’t Buy This Company To Destroy That Value”

Netflix's Ted Sarandos and Greg Peters tried to pour cold water on fears of a Netflix-WB merger, specifically as it relates to theatrical.

deadline.com

This all could be lip service of course, but if this is true, good. However I still worry about is the reduced theatrical windows that will still likely occur even if they do, and the affect that will have on the box office. There is a reason why many theater chains won't play the Netflix movies they have released, and its because Netflix only wants a few day theatrical window.

 

[Serpico Jones]

This isn't about sob stories, its about what is best for WBD shareholders and really the industry as a whole.

And if the bid needs to be increased, then it should have been requested by the WBD BoD instead of just closing all bids because they prefer one company over another. This is the whole point of why this is being taken directly to the shareholders, because the WBD BoD haven't kept the bidding process open.

They had a goal of $30 a share that was met.