Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[DKampy]

Potentially on track to be Universal’s second biggest opening weekend of all time. Albeit that still puts it at all time spot 31+/-. Speaks to how much Disney then Warner dominate the big blockbuster list and why Warner is a big prize.

I’m a bit concerned what kind of corner this backs this movie into in a franchising world.

Well Universal is producing an Alice in Wonderland musical staring Sabrina Carpenter…. I am sure in an attempt to capture the same magic box office numbers… we will see if it works…. Wicked already had a huge fan base with the broadway musical

 

[Animaniac93-98]

I’m a bit concerned what kind of corner this backs this movie into in a franchising world.

Presumably, they'd try to adapt one of the sequel books to Wicked as a movie musical

How well that turns out? Who knows.

 

[BrianLo]

Well Universal is producing an Alice in Wonderland musical staring Sabrina Carpenter…. I am sure in an attempt to capture the same magic box office numbers… we will see if it works…. Wicked already had a huge fan base with the broadway musical

If that’s the takeaway, I don’t hate that. Just more worried they are going to try and in universe adapt more Oz into musicals without really having the original creative chops behind it.

If I was studios I would be left with a discrete awareness that musicals and content for woman is where the money is at. Also looking at K-Pop’s success in that calculus. Especially a holiday musical. Disney needs to fire up their 20th century arm who made Greatest Showman.

 

[coffeefan]

If that’s the takeaway, I don’t hate that. Just more worried they are going to try and in universe adapt more Oz into musicals without really having the original creative chops behind it.

If I was studios I would be left with a discrete awareness that musicals and content for woman is where the money is at. Also looking at K-Pop’s success in that calculus. Especially a holiday musical. Disney needs to fire up their 20th century arm who made Greatest Showman.

It looks like there may be more Wicked in time.

More Oz? ‘Wicked: For Good’ Team Explore New Project — ‘Not a Sequel, an Adjunct’

SCOOP: Stephen Schwartz reveals he and Winnie Holzman are developing ‘another idea’ — and takes me inside the making of the film’s new soundtrack

theankler.com

 

[MisterPenguin]

If all movies are sequels, then sure. (Sisu: Road to Revenge is a sequel to a Finnish film that came out a few years ago.)

You can see the demonic rage in her eyes that fuels her monstrous desire for revenge.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Well Universal is producing an Alice in Wonderland musical staring Sabrina Carpenter…. I am sure in an attempt to capture the same magic box office numbers… we will see if it works…. Wicked already had a huge fan base with the broadway musical

Indeed.

Trying to take a new take on a public domain franchise often winds up with lots of box office bombs. Especially if there is already one, iconic, and successful version.

There's been lots of Snow White, Tarzan, Alice, Jungle Book, Frankenstein, Dracula "remakes." Rarely are they as successful as the already-famous version.

Even Disney's own live-action remakes are hit and miss at the box office (cf Jungle Book v. Dumbo).

Wicked's success was because the book was successful, and then the stage musical was successful. Too often studios jump right into a movie thinking they can strike gold without a proper vetting of their 'take' on the story.

 

[Nevermore525]

It’s the second weekend and any sign of international growth for Wicked: For Good that will be interesting. First one developed legs domestically where this one could be more front loaded.

Second act of Wicked has pacing issues which they did what they could to rectify in this one with the additional runtime, but it’s still present.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Wicked For Good may have a lower critic score on RT, but it has the same A CinemaScore as the first, a slightly higher PostTrak recommendation and a high audience score on RT as well

I was expecting all to be less, but not so far. Could be hardcore fan opening bias, but it's holding up well

Estimate for a $150+ million domestic opening

 

[Nevermore525]

Internationally it’s up to an estimated $75M range for the weekend. Should wind up just under $230M globally after the weekend.

First one did about $165M globally.

Question will be does it leg closer to the first one (domestically dropped only 28% over thanksgiving 2024) or more like a front loaded film that sees 50% drops.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

So I had 3 movies this year that compelled me to the theater (usually 6 or so prior)

Stitch
Superman
Wicked

All delivered enough based on the reasonable premise…

I don’t fret having missed the bombs otherwise

 

[Ghost93]

It’s the second weekend and any sign of international growth for Wicked: For Good that will be interesting. First one developed legs domestically where this one could be more front loaded.

Second act of Wicked has pacing issues which they did what they could to rectify in this one with the additional runtime, but it’s still present.

I had no major issues with the pacing of Wicked: For Good. I do think, however, that the somber tone of it will make it less of a crowd pleaser. I suspect Wicked: For Good will play better once people can watch the first one and it back-to-back as they balance each other out nicely. I had a friend who went to a double feature screening at AMC and he said he had a very good time seeing both.

 

[Phroobar]

So I had 3 movies this year that compelled me to the theater (usually 6 or so prior)

Stitch
Superman
Wicked

All delivered enough based on the reasonable premise…

I don’t fret having missed the bombs otherwise

I wish I was so lucky. I saw this year

Captain America Brave New World - 4
The Day the Earth Blew Up - 6
A Minecraft Movie - 6
Star Wars Revenge of the Sith - 9
Lilo & Stitch - 7
Mission Impossible The Finial Reckoning - 7
How to Train Your Dragon live action - 8
Elio - 4
The Goonies - 8
Jurassic World: Rebirth - 6
Superman - 6
The Iron Giant - 8
The Fantastic Four - 5
Shin Godzilla - 8
Freakier Friday - 5
The Lego Batman Movie - Batman Day - 7
Corpse Bride (20th Anniv) - 7
Back to the Future - 9
Howl's Moving Castle - 8

Granted a lot of these where $5 tuesday movies.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I wish I was so lucky. I saw this year

Captain America Brave New World - 4
The Day the Earth Blew Up - 6
A Minecraft Movie - 6
Star Wars Revenge of the Sith - 9
Lilo & Stitch - 7
Mission Impossible The Finial Reckoning - 7
How to Train Your Dragon live action - 8
Elio - 4
The Goonies - 8
Jurassic World: Rebirth - 6
Superman - 6
The Iron Giant - 8
The Fantastic Four - 5
Shin Gozilla - 8
Freakier Friday - 5
The Lego Batman Movie - Batman Day - 7
Corpse Bride (20th Anniv) - 7
Back to the Future - 9
Howl's Moving Castle - 8

Granted a lot of these were $5 tuesday movies.

the throwbacks are acceptable

 

[Phroobar]

the throwbacks are acceptable

They where the better movies.

 

[monothingie]

Thursday box office previews are in, and Wicked: For Good did big preview numbers last night.

Predator: Badlands looks like it's about to drop into 4th place for its 3rd weekend in theaters.
Also, something called SISU: Road to Revenge from Sony has arrived, to little notice.
And Tron: Ares is now down in 17th place, and just trying to find the change left in the seats at this point, so I think after this weekend we can wrap up its box office data and put it into the history books.

Do you think we'll see a day in the not too distant future where ALL movies will have a colon : in their title? I'd love to see it!

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Predator $159M WW as of today. Not going to make it even close to $200M.

bUt iT WAz gOiNg tO bE pRoFitAbLE!!!

If only the children listened to the adults in the room.

 

[monothingie]

So I had 3 movies this year that compelled me to the theater (usually 6 or so prior)

Stitch
Superman
Wicked

All delivered enough based on the reasonable premise…

I don’t fret having missed the bombs otherwise

Not the Naked Gun?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Not the Naked Gun?

It was on paramount plus like 4 days later

 

[DKampy]

And this is why studios continue to produce so many reboots, sequels, and remakes of familiar IP…. I have seen many great originals this year… but the ones that get people to theaters even in this thread are all IP driven

 

[Disney Irish]

Predator $159M WW as of today. Not going to make it even close to $200M.

bUt iT WAz gOiNg tO bE pRoFitAbLE!!!

If only the children listened to the adults in the room.

Yeah and it probably won't at this point.

But there is no reason to be disrespectful. We're all pretty much adults here, some older than you, all with our own opinions that we're all entitled to convey. Calling other posters children just because they disagree with you only makes you look like the child who didn't get their way so resorts to name calling.

 

[monothingie]

Yeah and it probably won't at this point.

But there is no reason to be disrespectful. We're all pretty much adults here, some older than you, all with our own opinions that we're all entitled to convey. Calling other posters children just because they disagree with you only makes you look like the child who didn't get their way so resorts to name calling.

Don’t act like a victim.

It’s an appropriate description for individuals who would rather ignore reality and transpose their personal feelings in any sort of rational analysis. In your case, your constant willingness to cover for Disney clouded your ability to analyze what was going on.

This movie had no path to anything over $200M or even $180M, but all we heard was this ridiculous cope that it was going to make money at 225+.