News Disney’s Fiscal Full Year and Q4 2025 Earnings Results Webcast

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Everything is down summer 2025.

Consumer spending as a whole is drawing back…travel has increased almost across the board in volume for the last 4 years.

No…gonna have to block this excuse like Dikembe

 

[Ayla]

That seems reasonable.

The (-2)% for Q1 is weighed heavier than Q2 or Q3 but we don't know how much.

So -4% in Q4, which is supposed to be good for attendance, would be ... something to look at.

Len, could you explain why it is weighted heavier? Is it because of the holidays and expected demand?

 

[lentesta]

This isn’t “bad”…
It confirms at least 2 people here aren’t crazy…and we got enough peanuts round here.

Here's the assumptions I'm working with:

• 2024 domestic attendance of 76.489MM from the TEA report
• Q1 and Q4 are higher attendance according to Disney's 10-Q reports, so weigh them as contributing 30% each towards attendance. Weight Q2 and Q3 at 20% each.
• We know the Q1, Q2, and Q3 attendance changes from those 10-Qs, too.
  • There's probably some rounding in there, but we don't know

So then the question is "How much did attendance change in Q4 to get to -1% overall?"

And yeah, it works out to be around -4% in one quarter:

I could be wrong but that seems ballpark-y. I haven't tried different weights for the quarterly variations in attendance.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

DTC is booming and guess where it gets it movies from?

They’re increasing their fees..a ton. The train is chugging toward the ravine…I hope they finished the track

That’s the “boom”

Try again

 

[Serpico Jones]

DTC will never replace the profits from the cable bundle. It won’t even come close.

 

[Dranth]

They are actively trying to figure out where that line is. They've mostly found it with Value and Moderate Resorts, they haven't found it yet with Deluxe offerings but they are close. They are also adding premium addons to top out those Deluxe guests.

The only thing they are still playing with are ticket prices.

What they are doing has largely been working in terms of revenue/profits, the issue has always been that it isn't sustainable indefinitely.

Even if they find the line across the board, where does the continued growth come from? Finding that line, by definition, removes any significant future price increases without tipping the whole thing over the cliff. At that point you are left with trying to expand the customer base and cutting costs. However, costs can only be cut so far before having an impact and if you combine that with a strategy that spent years shrinking your potential markets and antagonizing your core customers, your chances of everything coming together successfully takes a real hit.

I tend to think the doom and gloom crowd goes overboard and over inflates negatives (see ghost town comments for example) while also downplaying any legitimate outside influence but their core argument that Disney is pricing people out while reducing value is true. Long term, that is going to cause issues IF Disney doesn't eventually change their approach.

 

[lentesta]

Len, could you explain why it is weighted heavier? Is it because of the holidays and expected demand?

Yeah, holidays and summer vacation:

Their Q1 is October through December, so Halloween, Thanksgiving, and Christmas.

Their Q4 is July, August, and September, which is almost all of "summer vacation".

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Here's the assumptions I'm working with:

• 2024 domestic attendance of 76.489MM from the TEA report
• Q1 and Q4 are higher attendance according to Disney's 10-Q reports, so weigh them as contributing 30% each towards attendance. Weight Q2 and Q3 at 20% each.
• We know the Q1, Q2, and Q3 attendance changes from those 10-Qs, too.
  • There's probably some rounding in there, but we don't know

So then the question is "How much did attendance change in Q4 to get to -1% overall?"

And yeah, it works out to be around -4% in one quarter:

View attachment 892817

I could be wrong but that seems ballpark-y. I haven't tried different weights for the quarterly variations in attendance.

Good info.

And telling considering a lot of those unofficial numbers are from “strategic” unofficial corporate leaks and fluff houses like the Orlando tax offices and tourism boards. Not exactly “neutral” when their entire existence is determined by travel demand…as much as “perceived” as actual

 

[Touchdown]

What makes you think that prices are being increased because attendance is falling and not the other way around?

Disney has indicated for years now a desire to reset the valuation of their experiences product. They have basically said they wanted to control attendance and temper demand and the best way to do that is with price increases. So doesn't it follow then that their price controls are actually being done to control attendance rather than the other way around?

Price increases are causing the attendance drop, not the other way around. So far the extra revenue has made up for less people, which is great for Disney now, but it is not something that is sustainable long term. Eventually it won’t work. The company must show growth always though so they will continue the price increases so long as the status quo remains, thus they will find the ceiling and then be in a heap of trouble. I think right now they are hoping the new rides attract new customers and get jilted ones to return, we’ll see.

 

[Ayla]

Yeah, holidays and summer vacation:

Their Q1 is October through December, so Halloween, Thanksgiving, and Christmas.

Their Q4 is July, August, and September, which is almost all of "summer vacation".

Thank you. That is what I was thinking, but wasn't sure.

 

[el_super]

DTC will never replace the profits from the cable bundle. It won’t even come close.

Possibly, and with so many streaming services, content creators and social media out there, the overall value of "traditional" entertainment has decreased considerably. This is most likely why they are pivoting so hard into the experiences space.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

They are actively trying to figure out where that line is. They've mostly found it with Value and Moderate Resorts, they haven't found it yet with Deluxe offerings but they are close. They are also adding premium addons to top out those Deluxe guests.

The only thing they are still playing with are ticket prices.

I don’t disagree with you…

The problem is it’s the DUMBEST approach to corporate management that we’ve seen since Kodak…

You do not burn the bridge to your customers ever. They sell emotion.

The entire management and the patron board they appointed should be walked out of the dwarf house Today.

But it’s nothing new…just a day ending in “y”

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Possibly, and with so many streaming services, content creators and social media out there, the overall value of "traditional" entertainment has decreased considerably. This is most likely why they are pivoting so hard into the experiences space.

Which is dumb. It’s the same warning for years…but not all people show up to the party on time

 

[el_super]

Price increases are causing the attendance drop, not the other way around. So far the extra revenue has made up for less people, which is great for Disney now, but it is not something that is sustainable long term. Eventually it won’t work.

Right... but Disney controls the price increases, so if the price increases are going to lead to revenue that Disney isn't comfortable with, they can just slow or pause them. They're fully in control of the pricing and as such, they determine what their attendance is going to be.

 

[CoastalElite64]

They’re increasing their fees..a ton. The train is chugging toward the ravine…I hope they finished the track

That’s the “boom”

Try again

And yet, subscribers also grew by millions.

 

[lentesta]

Good info.

And telling considering a lot of those unofficial numbers are from “strategic” unofficial corporate leaks and fluff houses like the Orlando tax offices and tourism boards. Not exactly “neutral” when their entire existence is determined by travel demand…as much as “perceived” as actual

Interesting that you mention tax revenue, because Orange County's seemed to go in the opposite direction from Disney attendance in Q4:

• +11% in July, a new record
• +10% in August, a new record
• +1% in September, still an all-time high

Disney raised prices enough to get to +5% in revenue, but that's not quite keeping pace with tourist tax growth.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

And yet, subscribers also grew by millions.

it’s been mostly a static overall number for the last few years…it’s the prices that “grew”

Think that can keep going? We’ll see

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Interesting that you mention tax revenue, because Orange County's seemed to go in the opposite direction from Disney attendance in Q4:

• +11% in July, a new record
• +10% in August, a new record
• +1% in September, still an all-time high

Disney raised prices enough to get to +5% in revenue, but that's not quite keeping pace with tourist tax growth.

…you want to explain what that means for the kids in the back?

(Hint: I’m sitting in the front)

 

[CoastalElite64]

Consumer spending as a whole is drawing back…travel has increased almost across the board in volume for the last 4 years.

No…gonna have to block this excuse like Dekeme

I wont bother with this because it will go off topic, but we all read the news.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I wont bother with this because it will go off topic, but we all read the news.

Apparently not with the same understanding though