News Disney’s Fiscal Full Year and Q4 2025 Earnings Results Webcast

[Disney Analyst]

Stock is now down 9%. A complete disaster.

lol. It literally means nothing anymore.

 

[MisterPenguin]

I'm trying to figure out how we got to -1% domestic attendance for the year.

The 10-Qs (the quarterly reports) had this:

• -2% 1Q (Oct-Dec 2024), including hurricane impact
• +2% 2Q (Jan-Mar 2025)
• flat 3Q (Apr-Jun 2025)
• ???? 4Q (Jul-Sep 2025)

= -1% FY2025

So how much did domestic attendance change in 4Q to get to -1% for the whole year?

Maths says 4%.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

They are absolutely…100%…not trying to “control crowds”

An idiot said that off the cuff when a reporter asked a question in 2016 that wasn’t on the script.

Please stop repeating stupid things.

Publicly traded companies cannot turn away business by choice. It would never be tolerated by anyone who actually matters

 

[Serpico Jones]

Pretty clear Wall Street wants Disney out of the movie business. I don’t know what they’re going to do.

 

[monothingie]

I've been saying after each Quarterly Report for the past 8 years that they're raising prices to control crowds, but they keep not-finding the 'tipping point.' (Except for Value Resorts mentioned above.)

So, they're going to keep raising until they do.

As various segments stall due to a price increase, they'll stop raising the cost.

It's not about how many anchovies I'm willing to offer to the Mouse God, it's how many simoleans the general public (or just the upper middle and higher) are willing to hand over.

This is where a smaller, more nimble, and cost-conscious competitor can sneak in and snipe all those who've been priced out. And that would have been UO if they weren't playing the same price-increasing-until-the-tipping-point game that Disney is doing.

What crowds? All the limitations are self imposed to hide the weakness in demand and to boost LL. If they really didn’t care about capacity, then why the discounts?

 

[el_super]

Breaking News: guests aren’t visiting Disney because they expect something better to be out at the end of the decade.

They aren’t visiting because it’s too damn expensive. Future price hikes aren’t going to improve that.

Guests ARE visiting. That seems to be the fundamental fact a lot of people here want to keep ignoring because it's the only way any of their arguments make any sense.

Go ahead and try it: With how diminished you think the product is today, and how diminished you think the product has been for years now. Considering all the increase in admission costs and reduction in services ... why do you think attendance is ONLY down 1%? Shouldn't it be down 5% or 10% by now?

We keep getting told that the sky is falling, and when another quarter goes by and it doesn't, all we ever hear back is "well the sky is definitely going to fall next quarter."

No. They will be fine.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I'm trying to figure out how we got to -1% domestic attendance for the year.

The 10-Qs (the quarterly reports) had this:

• -2% 1Q (Oct-Dec 2024), including hurricane impact
• +2% 2Q (Jan-Mar 2025)
• flat 3Q (Apr-Jun 2025)
• ???? 4Q (Jul-Sep 2025)

= -1% FY2025

Disney's 10-Qs also say:

Experiences revenues fluctuate with changes in theme park attendance and resort occupancy resulting from the seasonal nature of vacation travel and leisure activities, which generally results in higher revenues during the Company’s first and fourth fiscal quarters,

So how much did domestic attendance change in 4Q to get to -1% for the whole year?

Attendance numbers are not required to be disclosed as financial “data”…because it isn’t under any definition

So it can be reported by whatever method they come up with. Bob won’t be arrested later today like Bud Fox was…

-1…-4…whatever…doesn’t wash. I’ve only spent probably 1,000 days (conservative) in parks for 40 years…so I only know what my eyes think: what the hell do they know?

Just assume “down” is correct because they couldn’t skirt it. And we will see if those $2000 checks fix all of it? The chapek special

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

What crowds? All the limitations are self imposed to hide the weakness in demand and to boost LL. If they really didn’t care about capacity, then why the discounts?

Speak not ye the truth

 

[lentesta]

Maths says 4%.

That seems reasonable.

The (-2)% for Q1 is weighed heavier than Q2 or Q3 but we don't know how much.

So -4% in Q4, which is supposed to be good for attendance, would be ... something to look at.

 

[CoastalElite64]

Pretty clear Wall Street wants Disney out of the movie business. I don’t know what they’re going to do.

What makes you think that?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Pretty clear Wall Street wants Disney out of the movie business. I don’t know what they’re going to do.

Well they’ve stopped making the proper level of content for their DTC…so why not follow suit and do it to movies?

Cancel the “Rey” movie first …stock will go up 5%

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

What makes you think that?

They’re dumping the stock? Usually not a positive sign

That blip about “we’re tanking movies” when you claim your IP is irresistible is gonna be hard to equate

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

So -4% in Q4, which is supposed to be good for attendance, would be ... something to look at.

This isn’t “bad”…
It confirms at least 2 people here aren’t crazy…and we got enough peanuts round here.

 

[DisneyHead123]

Why? What makes you think there will be a freefall? Specifically with the parks experience?

Attendance didn't drop significantly, even with the river closing. Or Dinoland. They have a full slate of additions, new attractions coming up. They have no where to go but up now.

What do you think is going to trigger some sudden freefall?

Yeah, inclined to agree. The thing that makes me the most nervous is how skittish and fickle the market can be. Hoping Disney has the good judgment not to be yanked around by the whims of investors and instead play the long game. But in terms of simple supply and demand? Price increases aren’t irreversible. Even cut perks aren’t irreversible. I don’t see a sudden or even gradual cliff / point of no return where previous park goers say “Their prices were 20% too much for me two years ago so I’ve decided I can never go back.” Maybe a very small percentage but probably offset by a small percentage for whom the unavailability makes Disney travel feel even more attractive.

 

[monothingie]

This isn’t “bad”…
It confirms at least 2 people here aren’t crazy…and we got enough peanuts round here.

Can you imagine at anytime pre shutdown even thinking a 4% drop during the summer is normal?

And no saying the Disney Adults now like going in the winter is taking its place is not a good thing for a FAMILY resort.

 

[Touchdown]

Why? What makes you think there will be a freefall? Specifically with the parks experience?

Because attendance is falling but profits are being propped up with price increases and budget cuts. Attendance falling means the policy is alienating customers and causing them to stop going because they can’t afford or feel it is no longer worth it. Disney doesn’t care about the former but they do very much care about the latter, and as price hikes continue the “not worth it” group is going to become a bigger portion of the lost customers. Eventually you alienate too much an d can no longer make up the lost gate sales with price hikes, modest profits become a giant loss because there is no juice left to squeeze. This is compounded by the simple fact that wooing a jilted consumer is extremely expensive, more expensive then a new customer and much more expensive then a current customer. Six Flags has had this happen multiple times, Universal has this happen in the 2000s, United is currently in that free fall. It’s a law of consumer business.

 

[CoastalElite64]

Can you imagine at anytime pre shutdown even thinking a 4% drop during the summer is normal?

And no saying the Disney Adults now like going in the winter is taking its place is not a good thing for a FAMILY resort.

Everything is down summer 2025.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Yeah, inclined to agree. The thing that makes me the most nervous is how skittish and fickle the market can be. Hoping Disney has the good judgment not to be yanked around by the whims of investors and instead play the long game. But in terms of simple supply and demand? Price increases aren’t irreversible. Even cut perks aren’t irreversible. I don’t see a sudden or even gradual cliff / point of no return where previous park goers say “Their prices were 20% too much for me two years ago so I’ve decided I can never go back.” Maybe a very small percentage but probably offset by a small percentage for whom the unavailability makes Disney travel feel even more attractive.

A reminder: Disney is not on the cusp of bankruptcy

Also a reminder:
They are losing customers in most if not all of their segments without any type of serious, acknowledged global financial drawback or catastrophic event…that hasn’t happened since…well…never

 

[CoastalElite64]

They’re dumping the stock? Usually not a positive sign

That blip about “we’re tanking movies” when you claim your IP is irresistible is gonna be hard to equate

DTC is booming and guess where it gets it movies from?

 

[el_super]

Because attendance is falling but profits are being propped up with price increases and budget cuts.

What makes you think that prices are being increased because attendance is falling and not the other way around?

Disney has indicated for years now a desire to reset the valuation of their experiences product. They have basically said they wanted to control attendance and temper demand and the best way to do that is with price increases. So doesn't it follow then that their price controls are actually being done to control attendance rather than the other way around?

If their goal was to increase attendance, they could easily do so with price manipulation, but that's not their goal.

Attendance falling means the policy is alienating customers and causing them to stop going because they can’t afford or feel it is no longer worth it.

The two are not mutually exclusive. You can be in a position where pricing determines that you have to go less, but still see value in the product and still want to go more. Attendance can decrease for any number of outside factors as well, not related to the actual guest satisfaction scores. Broader economic uncertainty would lead to reduced spending on big vacations, even while the desire to return remains strong.

Eventually you alienate too much an d can no longer make up the lost gate sales with price hikes, modest profits become a giant loss because there is no juice left to squeeze.

This might make sense, if everything was going to stay status quo from here on out. It's not.

If you don't think new attractions, new lands and new offerings are going to increase attendance in the long term, than how are you even a theme park fan?