Len Testa - “Disney positions itself as the all-American vacation. The irony is that most Americans can’t afford it.”

[DisneyHead123]

also if TEA looks at single gate entries, how does it account for park hopping and hard-ticket events?

I don’t think it takes ticketed events into account, it’s just for general admission.

 

[Basil of Baker Street]

Instead of recognizing the increased demand and building out and expanding, they constrained supply and raised prices.

Park pass reservations and monetization of line skipping along with the weeding out of less profitable guests further cemented this strategy because it, along with the reset offered by covid, made the YOY growth look great for Wall Street.

Disney has not fully recovered from the virus, whether intentional or not, they're at 2012-13 levels. Their current "expansion" plans are not going to move the needle significantly especially if coupled with price increases.

They're trapped because they can't stop the monetization of every activity, but at the same time are continually loosing guests. (And all it takes is little loss in guests to make a big difference)

And to the people who foolishly say that Disney is not loosing guests, they still down 20% from peak, also if TEA looks at single gate entries, how does it account for park hopping and hard-ticket events?

Yes, and I am confident LL revenue is cannibalizing things like TS dining and merchandise sales, but we all know LL is a higher profit margin and they are probably fine with that. So where might the mouse turn to solve all it's problems?

Alcohol!

People will dig pretty damn deep in their pockets for a drink. Especially if its an Instagram-able Photo. I foresee less TS locations, more QS locations and more themed cocktail lounges like Olga, Beak and Geo. If fact, I would not be surprised if every new land moving forward will have some sort of themed lounge.

 

[monothingie]

I don’t think it takes ticketed events into account, it’s just for general admission.

It tracks individual ticketed park entries. That would include hard ticket events. I do not know how park hopping is treated. I would think it is counted as well because that level of detail on the guest would only be known by Disney.

 

[monothingie]

Yes, and I am confident LL revenue is cannibalizing things like TS dining and merchandise sales, but we all know LL is a higher profit margin and they are probably fine with that. So where might the mouse turn to solve all it's problems?

Right now you have peak pricing for LL at the MK (and the entire resort in general) with extremely manageable reported wait times. From a supply/demand perspective it makes no sense. There is no great reason to buy LL right now and I think more people are wising up to that. So they do the samething they do with everything else - upcharge and create FOMO by offering to purchase it ahead of time...but now at higher prices.

Certainly a very shortsighted strategy because even the dumbest guests most happy to part with their money will question why they over paid for a line skip product that may not have a great benefit.

Alcohol!

People will dig pretty damn deep in their pockets for a drink. Especially if its an Instagram-able Photo. I foresee less TS locations, more QS locations and more themed cocktail lounges like Olga, Beak and Geo. If fact, I would not be surprised if every new land moving forward will have some sort of themed lounge.

I'm not so sure. Beak and Olga are walk up. Once the cupcake brigade and social media shills milked it for their instagrams and subs, the normies simply didn't have the interest to show up.

While Disney will certainly focus on the new flashy thing, it has to have some appeal to regular guests, and paying for overpriced pre-mixed drinks may not have that appeal. Value still matters to a lot.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Instead of recognizing the increased demand and building out and expanding, they constrained supply and raised prices.

Park pass reservations and monetization of line skipping along with the weeding out of less profitable guests further cemented this strategy because it, along with the reset offered by covid, made the YOY growth look great for Wall Street.

Disney has not fully recovered from the virus, whether intentional or not, they're at 2012-13 levels. Their current "expansion" plans are not going to move the needle significantly especially if coupled with price increases.

They're trapped because they can't stop the monetization of every activity, but at the same time are continually loosing guests. (And all it takes is little loss in guests to make a big difference)

And to the people who foolishly say that Disney is not loosing guests, they still down 20% from peak, also if TEA looks at single gate entries, how does it account for park hopping and hard-ticket events?

Funny you mentioned that…

Stay tuned (somebody had a “rush” on something tonight they forgot to ask for…if architects had common sense they’d be almost as functional as a German Shepard )

…more to follow on this

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I don’t think it takes ticketed events into account, it’s just for general admission.

It absolutely does count them…because the unofficial numbers being slipped to tea via outlets is straight from the mouse’s mouth (or more and more from a different body part involving a hole)…with zero disclaimers or conditions whatsoever. It’s the benefit of never releasing numbers and who they’re trying to please…hint: it’s above water street and below canal street

We can sift through this and debate the merits of the case

 

[DisneyHead123]

It tracks individual ticketed park entries. That would include hard ticket events. I do not know how park hopping is treated. I would think it is counted as well because that level of detail on the guest would only be known by Disney.

It absolutely does count them…because the unofficial numbers being slipped to tea via outlets is straight from the mouse’s mouth (or more and more from a different body part involving a hole)…with zero disclaimers or conditions whatsoever. It’s the benefit of never releasing numbers and who they’re trying to please…hint: it’s above water street and below canal street

We can sift through this and debate the merits of the case

Ok, my mistake on that… while I can’t find 100% confirmation, after Googling around it at least looks quite possible that ticketed events are included.

 

[bmr1591]

Right now you have peak pricing for LL at the MK (and the entire resort in general) with extremely manageable reported wait times. From a supply/demand perspective it makes no sense. There is no great reason to buy LL right now and I think more people are wising up to that. So they do the samething they do with everything else - upcharge and create FOMO by offering to purchase it ahead of time...but now at higher prices.

Certainly a very shortsighted strategy because even the dumbest guests most happy to part with their money will question why they over paid for a line skip product that may not have a great benefit.

I'm not so sure. Beak and Olga are walk up. Once the cupcake brigade and social media shills milked it for their instagrams and subs, the normies simply didn't have the interest to show up.

While Disney will certainly focus on the new flashy thing, it has to have some appeal to regular guests, and paying for overpriced pre-mixed drinks may not have that appeal. Value still matters to a lot.

Beak is sold out on reservations and has been since it opened. There isn’t walk up availability.

 

[Chi84]

Beak is sold out on reservations and has been since it opened. There isn’t walk up availability.

That’s what I’m seeing too. Maybe they’re letting people walk up close to closing?

 

[monothingie]

Beak is sold out on reservations and has been since it opened. There isn’t walk up availability.

I did a search for a party of 2 at 7pm tonight and found reservations available on the half hour till park close at 10. So yeah walk up.

I’ve been there twice in the 4 weeks after they opened and Each time I got day of reservations and there was availability.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

So riddle me this:

What if magic kingdom is not - in fact - the most visited theme park?

What if it’s her prettier older sister in Anaheim (everyone loves a cougar…)

How would the numbers “lie”?

Consider: that each ticket is being reported as a “day”…no matter how much of the day it actually is?

So let’s say…hypothetically…that with “special ticketed magical premium experiency thangs” that has a an individual ticket and therefore a day in a certain Orlando park is a total of 445…and goes up every year. What’s that mean? It means they are claiming (unofficially so J Edgar Hoover doesn’t raid them) 445 “days” in the year…

Huh? What’s that do/matter? Oh that’s where the fun starts…
It throws off:
Real attendance (many are double counted in the hard ticket events)
Daily average
“growth” figures
Hides losses
And becomes an “unofficial instrument” to create a false statement of “demand” that is pushed to the customers…the sharpest tool in Disney parks arsenal is FOMO and this falsely pumps it up.

I could go deeper…but I forgot my scuba tank and I don’t want to drown

“But Disneyland does it too”

Yeah…about 380…because the customers are much smarter and they’d riot if you try to toss them out early 80 TIMES A YEAR…which will pass 3 full months based on “growth rate” by 2027.

It’s all kinda clear how the parks look damn near Empty on many days…and they are.

Gate clicks are flat while actual daily attendance of lucrative additional customers is down. There’s blood pouring out behind the scenes.

But I made all that up…just theory…like BLUE OCEAN and the lost city of Atlantis.

Carry on

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I did a search for a party of 2 at 7pm tonight and found reservations available on the half hour till park close at 10. So yeah walk up.

I’ve been there twice in the 4 weeks after they opened and Each time I got day of reservations and there was availability.

Just got a reservation for 8 (not my choice…my travel with party) on 12/27…which is a Saturday and 75% of the country ain’t working…

And if you look for 4…they’re all over the place

Beak is sold out on reservations and has been since it opened. There isn’t walk up availability.

So what da hell are you talking about, Willis?

You could get these one or two days in advance after a couple of weeks after opening

And why? The cps there were out of money…and the vloggers had to go back and take out the trash in BVL so mom would continue to let them live rent Free in her basement…

(Ok…I made that part up…there’s like a 10” water table in Orlando…basements are impractical…they live on the lanai like rose and Blanche)

 

[monothingie]

So riddle me this:

What if magic kingdom is not - in fact - the most visited theme park?

What if it’s her prettier older sister in Anaheim (everyone loves a cougar…)

How would the numbers “lie”?

Consider: that each ticket is being reported as a “day”…no matter how much of the day it actually is?

So let’s say…hypothetically…that with “special ticketed magical premium experiency thangs” that has a an individual ticket and therefore a day in a certain Orlando park is a total of 445…and goes up every year. What’s that mean? It means they are claiming (unofficially so J Edgar Hoover doesn’t raid them) 445 “days” in the year…

Huh? What’s that do/matter? Oh that’s where the fun starts…
It throws off:
Real attendance (many are double counted in the hard ticket events)
Daily average
“growth” figures
Hides losses
And becomes an “unofficial instrument” to create a false statement of “demand” that is pushed to the customers…the sharpest tool in Disney parks arsenal is FOMO and this falsely pumps it up.

I could go deeper…but I forgot my scuba tank and I don’t want to drown

“But Disneyland does it too”

Yeah…about 380…because the customers are much smarter and they’d riot if you try to toss them out early 80 TIMES A YEAR…which will pass 3 full months based on “growth rate” by 2027.

It’s all kinda clear how the parks look damn near Empty on many days…and they are.

Gate clicks are flat while actual daily attendance of lucrative additional customers is down. There’s blood pouring out behind the scenes.

But I made all that up…just theory…like BLUE OCEAN and the lost city of Atlantis.

Carry on

So the numbers are basically meaningless and we’re just left to what we see with our eyes. Specifically that the parks entire resort is underperforming.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

So the numbers are basically meaningless and we’re just left to what we see with our eyes. Specifically that the parks are underperforming.

…but…but…

IT’S LUXURY NOW!!!

and all those “additions” (replacements so they’re really net zero…but minor details)!!

$17 BILLION!!

BOB IS REALLY LEAVING THIS TIME!!! (Stay tuned)

UNPRECEDENTED DEMAND!!!


…did I get them all?

 

[Ayla]

So let me ask you veterans what the next move for Disney actually is. Not what they *should* do, but what they *will* do. What's the levers they pull to keep getting people to come with these rising costs?

What they should do and what they will do are two totally different things.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Instead of recognizing the increased demand and building out and expanding, they constrained supply and raised prices.

Park pass reservations and monetization of line skipping along with the weeding out of less profitable guests further cemented this strategy because it, along with the reset offered by covid, made the YOY growth look great for Wall Street.

Disney has not fully recovered from the virus, whether intentional or not, they're at 2012-13 levels. Their current "expansion" plans are not going to move the needle significantly especially if coupled with price increases.

They're trapped because they can't stop the monetization of every activity, but at the same time are continually loosing guests. (And all it takes is little loss in guests to make a big difference)

And to the people who foolishly say that Disney is not loosing guests, they still down 20% from peak, also if TEA looks at single gate entries, how does it account for park hopping and hard-ticket events?

Stop being so negative…the fact the stock price is the same
As it was in June 2015 proves that everything is working…

And it will get better when they announce another contract extension and quietly some stock buyback at 3 am EST on Black Friday…

 

[HauntedPirate]

Stop being so negative…the fact the stock price is the same
As it was in June 2015 proves that everything is working…

And it will get better when they announce another contract extension and quietly some stock buyback at 3 am EST on Black Friday…

Fake news. They never publicly announce their billions in stock buybacks.

 

[Nubs70]

It tracks individual ticketed park entries. That would include hard ticket events. I do not know how park hopping is treated. I would think it is counted as well because that level of detail on the guest would only be known by Disney.

There was a bar chart several pages back that displayed yearly park attendance over the last decade ot so.

A way to see.the influence of hard ticketed events (HTE) to distill attendance down to average daily attendance. In years before HTE, the denominator would be simply 365. As more and more HTE are added, the denominator becomes (365 + HTE). This will dilute the average daily attendance.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Fake news. They never publicly announce their billions in stock buybacks.

Of course they don’t, silly…

Buybacks are cooking the books and you gotta be “sneaky” about it

 

[tommyhawkins]

So riddle me this:

What if magic kingdom is not - in fact - the most visited theme park?

What if it’s her prettier older sister in Anaheim (everyone loves a cougar…)

How would the numbers “lie”?

Consider: that each ticket is being reported as a “day”…no matter how much of the day it actually is?

So let’s say…hypothetically…that with “special ticketed magical premium experiency thangs” that has a an individual ticket and therefore a day in a certain Orlando park is a total of 445…and goes up every year. What’s that mean? It means they are claiming (unofficially so J Edgar Hoover doesn’t raid them) 445 “days” in the year…

Huh? What’s that do/matter? Oh that’s where the fun starts…
It throws off:
Real attendance (many are double counted in the hard ticket events)
Daily average
“growth” figures
Hides losses
And becomes an “unofficial instrument” to create a false statement of “demand” that is pushed to the customers…the sharpest tool in Disney parks arsenal is FOMO and this falsely pumps it up.

I could go deeper…but I forgot my scuba tank and I don’t want to drown

“But Disneyland does it too”

Yeah…about 380…because the customers are much smarter and they’d riot if you try to toss them out early 80 TIMES A YEAR…which will pass 3 full months based on “growth rate” by 2027.

It’s all kinda clear how the parks look damn near Empty on many days…and they are.

Gate clicks are flat while actual daily attendance of lucrative additional customers is down. There’s blood pouring out behind the scenes.

But I made all that up…just theory…like BLUE OCEAN and the lost city of Atlantis.

Carry on

Does it matter if every park is treated and counted the same way?

Personally I would look at the difference between the most popular and the other parks at the resort for signs of creative accounting of visits. For example the difference between IOA and USF is only 250k. Yet more than 7milion between DL and DCA. Anyway it's a total minefield and opens more questions like what's the true number of visitors to a resort if people who go to both parks are being counted twice