Len Testa - “Disney positions itself as the all-American vacation. The irony is that most Americans can’t afford it.”

[Sirwalterraleigh]

They are doing a partial close this winter and then a full close starting next October to do their first major refurb of the park.

They need to “fully commit” and keep it closed half the year like Disney does with theirs

 

[Basil of Baker Street]

I wonder if families who went between 2014-2019 said "never again" due to overcrowding. There were some miserable times in the parks during those years.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I wonder if families who went between 2014-2019 said "never again" due to overcrowding. There were some miserable times in the parks during those years.

They sucked…terrible

And I’m sure some were beaten away because of it.

In fact - full disclosure - we hated it…but had annuals and were more resort dwellers than park dwellers in that period. Those annuals are at least 3x the price now.

But…the crowds are way down…visibly lacking…so if you’re an old park dog…it’s rather comfortable now.

Disney doesn’t want that…at all…so they’re blowing smoke everywhere to hide it…

Why? Because they’re living off people fomo to buy a $30 line skip for rise of the abrams at 10 am when it literally takes longer to walk through the empty queue at 5 pm than the posted wait times…

That’s the shell game

Of course it’s “crowded”…or you won’t give them money for nothing

At least when they whack you $52 for breakfast…you get bacon and to see the chipmunks

 

[el_super]

I removed a sidebar with my opinion that they are completely incapable of making decent planning decisions and operate five minutes at the time.

I disagree. I think in the thirty or forty years that I have been following them, they have changed their master planning strategy maybe only two or three times. Consider:

Eisner v1: Spend big, build big
Eisner v2: Cut spending and operate on volume
Iger: Spend big, build big (part deux).

I do think the current iteration of spend big and build big, adopted just before Chapek came in, is far more in line with what you are envisioning for MK. Today we see a Disney that isn't afraid to admit that the overall satisfaction of guests doesn't work out with older attractions in the park. The business side to any attraction development though, is always one of how to pay for it. If you raise prices to jump start attraction development, you inevitably reduce demand making the new development unnecessary from a capacity perspective. What you do though is gain overall value such that you can continue to raise prices and fund additional attraction development.

We will see if this works out, but honestly I think they're current strategy is far more in line with what you outlined than you give them credit for. They seem intent on capping overall capacity.

Just in case though, anyone would think I am losing my edge: the capacity problem as most here see it, will never really go away. Attractions and experiences are not all the same, and the demand for them will always be different. Some things will be in high demand and others not. New rides will always have long lines. Some parks, even those with "low capacity" will still be the highest attended parks on the planet, despite spending billions in attractions for your other gates.

Its a complicated issue the doesn't get resolved by just building new attractions. And at this point I'm pretty convinced that if it ever were solved, people would just pivot to complaining that the prices were too high.

 

[bmr1591]

So let me ask you veterans what the next move for Disney actually is. Not what they *should* do, but what they *will* do. What's the levers they pull to keep getting people to come with these rising costs?

 

[el_super]

I think that would encourage people to spend more time at the resorts, and potentially draw people out of the parks if they were monorail resorts.

Nothing is really going to draw people away from the classic Disney experience. They've spent billions on Epcot, AK and DHS and MK is still by and far the attendance winner no/matter/what.

I wonder if, they had it all to do over, they would have skipped building additional parks and just built more Disneyland's around the globe.

 

[el_super]

So let me ask you veterans what the next move for Disney actually is. Not what they *should* do, but what they *will* do. What's the levers they pull to keep getting people to come with these rising costs?

It will be interesting to see if they stick to their current strategy while facing the certain economic downturn on the horizon.

If they do/want to, they will be reluctant to undervalue the experiences as they have in the past. There will be no deep discounting as there has been in other downturns. I think the pandemic has taught them that reducing supply (closing the parks/ limiting attendance / reducing operating expenses) will net them higher demand in the future. They don't want to be in a scenario where they build a billion dollar experience (like Cars Land) and then turn around and have to sell it for cheap.

If they remain patient, prices will remain high, new experiences will come online and attendance will remain about where it is. Growth will come from per cap spending and not from attendance gains.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Their management is atrocious with zero mid to long term thinking

They are impulsive like a stock broker intern straight out of Rutgers…

And I’m right because bobs stupido AI Chatbot had shown up to defend him in broken dialect

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

So let me ask you veterans what the next move for Disney actually is. Not what they *should* do, but what they *will* do. What's the levers they pull to keep getting people to come with these rising costs?

What will they do is continue to chase quarterlies no matter what brand damage it does…which is what Disneys core asset has always been…

Because the weasel in charge was so enamored/scared of Steve Jobs and his control of the board…that he tried to become him after he died.

Dictatorial tech ceo and master.

When it fails…they’ll be sold to a bigger fish and scrapped for spare parts piece by piece over the course of time.

But this is me being an “optimist”

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Nothing is really going to draw people away from the classic Disney experience. They've spent billions on Epcot, AK and DHS and MK is still by and far the attendance winner no/matter/what.

I wonder if, they had it all to do over, they would have skipped building additional parks and just built more Disneyland's around the globe.

Disneyland passed magic kingdom for higher attendance…

The “unofficial” TEA stats leave out a key point that no one will really talk about…

And it was those “billions” spent that created the “classic Disney experience (dumb PR word)”. The ones from 1955-2000…
Not this shell game nonsense little man has pulled since

 

[MickeyLuv'r]

I wonder if families who went between 2014-2019 said "never again" due to overcrowding. There were some miserable times in the parks during those years.

This sentiment has recently been said multiple times on this forum. I disagree.

As with now, people who studied WDW/planned/prebooked had an advantage over those who didn't know to prebook/research WDW ahead of time, but that is still true today.

I found the parks very enjoyable in that time period. I took advantage of some amazing bounce back offers and other deals in that era. Anecdotal, but the Disney forums were considerably more lighthearted/positive than they are today. When the pandemic hit, and WDW closed, I missed out on a fabulous bounceback booking.

One of my best WDW hotel stays ever occurred in 2019 at the brand new Grand Destino. Everything about that hotel stay was perfect. Our mousekeeper even went so far as to decorate our bathroom with a paper rose. The service was impeccable from the moment I pulled up to the curb to the time I checked out.

That was also the era of EMH for all onsite hotel guests. I strongly miss the fun of going to MK until 3am w/just a regular park ticket. If you knew anything about the ebb and flow of crowds, and got slightly lucky, then it was fairly often possible to make excellent use of EMH to ride e-rides, especially in MK.

I also much prefer the hotel room decor from that era over what WDW has now: the Contemporary, Wilderness Lodge, Grand Floridian, Caribbean Beach, Coronado, etc. The fold down beds at the values are an improvement, but the rest of the in-room decor is not nearly as fun as it once was.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

This sentiment has recently been said multiple times on this forum. I disagree.

As with now, people who studied WDW/planned/prebooked had an advantage over those who didn't know to prebook/research WDW ahead of time, but that is still true today.

I found the parks very enjoyable in that time period. I took advantage of some amazing bounce back offers and other deals in that era. Anecdotal, but the Disney forums were considerably more lighthearted/positive than they are today. When the pandemic hit, and WDW closed, I missed out on a fabulous bounceback booking.

One of my best WDW hotel stays ever occurred in 2019 at the brand new Grand Destino. Everything about that hotel stay was perfect. Our mousekeeper even went so far as to decorate our bathroom with a paper rose. The service was impeccable from the moment I pulled up to the curb to the time I checked out.

That was also the era of EMH for all onsite hotel guests. I strongly miss the fun of going to MK until 3am w/just a regular park ticket. If you knew anything about the ebb and flow of crowds, and got slightly lucky, then it was fairly often possible to make excellent use of EMH to ride e-rides, especially in MK.

I also much prefer the hotel room decor from that era over what WDW has now: the Contemporary, Wilderness Lodge, Grand Floridian, Caribbean Beach, Coronado, etc. The fold down beds at the values are an improvement, but the rest of the in-room decor is not nearly as fun as it once was.

The reason the criticisms are rising and complaints are more vocal now has nothing to do with the customers or the plague…

It’s that bad management tactics take a long time to eat away at the foundation for Disney…and that bill is starting to become due

Those decisions often predated that timeframe and only intensified during it

Also…totally agree on the hotel changes they’re deliberate and a travesty

 

[jah4955]

It's a solid analysis of the problem. Nice job @tommyhawkins.

I'm all for removing Jungle Cruise and the Speedway from the MK to make way for new attractions. I'd be moderately surprised if the Speedway (at least) was not on the short list of Phase 2 ideas.

I just had a chance to finish (admit halfway thru I stopped reading and started perusing lol). A very impressive "labor of love." I think deep down inside most are still rooting for Disney to do something like this, and I would love for more indications they are thinking far into the future beyond the tenures of current leadership.

I'm glad he "spared" the Treehouse lol, & I also argued months before that the next 2 attractions on the "chopping block" would be the speedway and Jungle Cruise (in 1998 I was surprised it didn't close but now better understand why it's still here nearly 3 decades after AK's opening), but I'm surprised the below wasn't considered in his "capacity fun map:" (not certainly not trying to be critical of such a great piece in the slightest...just playing along with his "what if:")

• The two un/underused attraction buildings in TL
• The space that was going to be the Main Street Theater (formerly occupied in-part by Tomorrowland's Theater)
• I don't see where he considered his estimated added capacity of Carsland (compared to RoA attractions....acknowledging we finally "crossed the Rubicon" on that.
• No consideration for dining? (dealing with overwhelmed restaurants (quick serve and seated) was most unpleasant my last several visits).

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

.

• No consideration for dining? (dealing with overwhelmed restaurants (quick serve and seated) was most unpleasant my last several visits).

When was your last visit? Dining is frightfully Empty of late

Like way less than 2002 levels

 

[jah4955]

Its been awhile ...the longest stretch of my life wo a visit

When was your last visit? Dining is frightfully Empty of late

Like way less than 2002 levels

 

[DisneyHead123]

Nothing is really going to draw people away from the classic Disney experience. They've spent billions on Epcot, AK and DHS and MK is still by and far the attendance winner no/matter/what.

I wonder if, they had it all to do over, they would have skipped building additional parks and just built more Disneyland's around the globe.

That’s extreme hyperbole though. Epcot and HS are in the top 10 most attended parks in the world, AK in the top 20. It’s not like they’re sitting empty. So it’s not true that “nothing” could get people out of MK.

 

[tommyhawkins]

I just had a chance to finish (admit halfway thru I stopped reading and started perusing lol). A very impressive "labor of love." I think deep down inside most are still rooting for Disney to do something like this, and I would love for more indications they are thinking far into the future beyond the tenures of current leadership.

I'm glad he "spared" the Treehouse lol, & I also argued months before that the next 2 attractions on the "chopping block" would be the speedway and Jungle Cruise (in 1998 I was surprised it didn't close but now better understand why it's still here nearly 3 decades after AK's opening), but I'm surprised the below wasn't considered in his "capacity fun map:" (not certainly not trying to be critical of such a great piece in the slightest...just playing along with his "what if:")

Apart from it supports my argument small things count.. if this expansion was a new land you would still need thematic dividers so no reason it would need to go.

• The two un/underused attraction buildings in TL
• The space that was going to be the Main Street Theater (formerly

I am going to be completely honest the reason my suggestions were a light touch in autopia and avoided a theatre on main street when it so obviously helps is because I am not convinced this land is suitable for any heavy duty changes attractions wise.....from what I understand that condition of the land is really not great and is a Pandora's box of problems and expense. Even if the rumour about why the theatre got canned is only partly true it turns a sound ROI into a protracted one with the cost of working around sinkholes. So I'm not sure tearing down Carousel to put something more relevant as an example is a realistic improvement. So I slowly backed away from Tomorrowland. Also pained to make like for like suggestions with existing underutilized spaces.

• occupied in-part by Tomorrowland's Theater)
• I don't see where he considered his estimated added capacity of Carsland (compared to RoA attractions....acknowledging we finally "crossed the Rubicon" on that.

As I explained in a previous article, replacing Two attractions with two newer attractions isn't a a net gain, and whilst Piston Peak and the C ticket will maybe be 400-700 more people per hour, the load it takes from the 15 most popular attractions is in the realm of rounding errors. A new Eticket ride will be great but it barely moves the needle on a 20k/hour deficit.

• No consideration for dining? (dealing with overwhelmed restaurants (quick serve and seated) was most unpleasant my last several visits).

One theory is that peoples' days are so strained for time with queues is that don't have those hours spare to do sit down restaurants, in regards to what I set out there were plenty of unlabelled buildings that could be dining. In part two of my series I touched on how Europa park masterfully utilises space to have C tickets underneath dining locations. So there are always more options with the right planning. If love it if you could read those other pieces. Thanks for taking the time with this one!!



As a more general response to earlier replies I always try to come with potential solutions to problems rather than grievances and rhetoric. If you're wise enough to be on this forum we don't need to spend much time revisiting the well worn discussion about how Disney operates Quarter to Quarter. My biggest fear is D'Amaro getting the job and we get Chapek Redux. What I would say though is when you get into the economics of the "Giant investments" you see than in reality it has been been a modest boost in capex spending after stopping almost dead during COVID, so it appears like a huge gesture when its just status quo. But a resort that gets almost 20m visitors a year and counting can't possibly keep up with 1 addition for four parks every 12-18months the math ain't mathing on that.

 

[monothingie]

I wonder if families who went between 2014-2019 said "never again" due to overcrowding. There were some miserable times in the parks during those years.

Instead of recognizing the increased demand and building out and expanding, they constrained supply and raised prices.

Park pass reservations and monetization of line skipping along with the weeding out of less profitable guests further cemented this strategy because it, along with the reset offered by covid, made the YOY growth look great for Wall Street.

Disney has not fully recovered from the virus, whether intentional or not, they're at 2012-13 levels. Their current "expansion" plans are not going to move the needle significantly especially if coupled with price increases.

They're trapped because they can't stop the monetization of every activity, but at the same time are continually loosing guests. (And all it takes is little loss in guests to make a big difference)

And to the people who foolishly say that Disney is not loosing guests, they still down 20% from peak, also if TEA looks at single gate entries, how does it account for park hopping and hard-ticket events?

 

[bmr1591]

It's a solid analysis of the problem. Nice job @tommyhawkins.

I'm all for removing Jungle Cruise and the Speedway from the MK to make way for new attractions. I'd be moderately surprised if the Speedway (at least) was not on the short list of Phase 2 ideas.

If this were to happen, I assume they'd also fix empty attraction space in the process, which would help even more. I'd be excited if they moved in this direction, I'm just unsure they have the forward-thinking mindset to push for these types of changes.

 

[jah4955]

Apart from it supports my argument small things count.. if this expansion was a new land you would still need thematic dividers so no reason it would need to go.

I am going to be completely honest the reason my suggestions were a light touch in autopia and avoided a theatre on main street when it so obviously helps is because I am not convinced this land is suitable for any heavy duty changes attractions wise.....from what I understand that condition of the land is really not great and is a Pandora's box of problems and expense. Even if the rumour about why the theatre got canned is only partly true it turns a sound ROI into a protracted one with the cost of working around sinkholes. So I'm not sure tearing down Carousel to put something more relevant as an example is a realistic improvement. So I slowly backed away from Tomorrowland. Also pained to make like for like suggestions with existing underutilized spaces.

As I explained in a previous article, replacing Two attractions with two newer attractions isn't a a net gain, and whilst Piston Peak and the C ticket will maybe be 400-700 more people per hour, the load it takes from the 15 most popular attractions is in the realm of rounding errors. A new Eticket ride will be great but it barely moves the needle on a 20k/hour deficit.

One theory is that peoples' days are so strained for time with queues is that don't have those hours spare to do sit down restaurants, in regards to what I set out there were plenty of unlabelled buildings that could be dining. In part two of my series I touched on how Europa park masterfully utilises space to have C tickets underneath dining locations. So there are always more options with the right planning. If love it if you could read those other pieces. Thanks for taking the time with this one!!



As a more general response to earlier replies I always try to come with potential solutions to problems rather than grievances and rhetoric. If you're wise enough to be on this forum we don't need to spend much time revisiting the well worn discussion about how Disney operates Quarter to Quarter. My biggest fear is D'Amaro getting the job and we get Chapek Redux. What I would say though is when you get into the economics of the "Giant investments" you see than in reality it has been been a modest boost in capex spending after stopping almost dead during COVID, so it appears like a huge gesture when its just status quo. But a resort that gets almost 20m visitors a year and counting can't possibly keep up with 1 addition for four parks every 12-18months the math ain't mathing on that.

Wow! I really appreciate this extra info. I'm hoping there aren't sinkholes (or there is some fix in the works) in tl but it would explain the relative stagnation there (but happy CoP safe for foreseeable future due to Walt Animatronic). I will check out your other work...& I'm subscribed!