Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[LittleBuford]

I'm not going to get into the semantics of language here. But that is about him specifically, not that every similar case under the sun in Hollywood will always lead to arrests and prosecution.

It’s not semantics. Your claims about Leto were premised on the assertion that such crimes do not go unpunished today. I’m responding to your own framing, not playing word games.

 

[Nevermore525]

Really don’t think the Leto factor matters that much. Tron has never really been that successful at the box office so no reason to expect any different with this iteration, especially in a dwindling box office market. Fans of the visuals and music will go to the theater for it, while most will just pick it up at home at some point.

But people will stick to whatever belief they had about why this would flop going into it.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

Really don’t think the Leto factor matters that much. Tron has never really been that successful at the box office so no reason to expect any different with this iteration, especially in a dwindling box office market. Fans of the visuals and music will go to the theater for it, while most will just pick it up at home at some point.

But people will stick to whatever belief they had about why this would flop going into it.

True, we’re getting sidetracked by a minor secondary factor when the reality is it’s a franchise that’s just never been mainstream.

 

[Disney Irish]

It’s not semantics. Your claims about Leto were premised on the assertion that such crimes do not go unpunished today. I’m responding to your own framing, not playing word games.

Except I'm not making the claims surround all of Hollywood incident, which is your assertion.

 

[Disney Irish]

I think it’s definitely better than it was but I think the “boys club” still very much exists, we get the occasional scapegoat like Epstein and Diddy but for every 1 that’s exposed there’s probably 99 that are being protected by their money, their power, and their powerful connections.

We all know of extremely prominent celebrities, politicians, and millionaires /billionaires associated with both of them and everyone seems to be going out of their way to protect them.

No doubt that stuff still happens, I just think its less likely to be protected now as it once was, especially as a media frenzy starts.

I also don't think Leto has that same "juice" in Hollywood today as he may have once had. So any protection he may have once had is probably gone.

 

[LSLS]

I think it’s definitely better than it was but I think the “boys club” still very much exists, we get the occasional scapegoat like Epstein and Diddy but for every 1 that’s exposed there’s probably 99 that are being protected by their money, their power, and their powerful connections.

We all know of extremely prominent celebrities, politicians, and millionaires /billionaires associated with both of them and everyone seems to be going out of their way to protect them.

New Vegas Knight Carter Hart says hello.

 

[coffeefan]

 

[BrianLo]

Anyone want to guess at the back half of the year? Acknowledging I’m terrible, but this year hasn’t been that wildly unpredictable thus far from our consensus six months ago.

1) Fire and Ash. ?1.75B
A still large number, smaller than Way of Water. Some inane week of debate about how troubled it is before the holidays have actually been allowed to play out and international dump trucks of money show up.

2) Zootopia 2 - A 1B squeak ala Moana 2. I’m prepared to be Wildly off the mark by 300-500M in either direction and it wouldn’t be surprising. Another one where International is what will make the final call.

3) Fantastic Four - 750M.

4) Tron - bombs spectacularly. Maybe even loses more money that Snow White.

5) Freakier Friday - ?150M, A modest sum for its budget. Troubled if the budget is much over 50M.

I’m not doing bad with my predictions for once! Overcalled F4 but was super bang on with Friday and Tron. Albeit cannot lose more than Snow since its budget was reigned in, seems to be likely to do a sub 200M global box office.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

New Vegas Knight Carter Hart says hello.

Has he officially signed? I’ve seen a ton of rumors but nothing official.

I honestly don’t know how I feel about him coming to Vegas (if he is), he is definitely tarnished by the allegations but was ultimately found not guilty, the cynical side of me says “boys club”, the optimist side of me says if there wasn’t sufficient evidence the system worked… with allegations like this your reputation never really recovers though, even if you’re found not guilty.

 

[LSLS]

Has he officially signed? I’ve seen a ton of rumors but nothing official.

I honestly don’t know how I feel about him coming to Vegas (if he is), he is definitely tarnished by the allegations but was ultimately found not guilty, the cynical side of me says “boys club”, the optimist side of me says if there wasn’t sufficient evidence the system worked… with allegations like this your reputation never really recovers though, even if you’re found not guilty.

Seems to be a done deal. I don't know, I followed the trial quite a bit and it is messed up. The judge had an INSANE bias and even the attorneys interviewed in Canada seemed to be shocked at decisions she was making. But even if you believe not guilty, it's pretty horrible what he just admitted to. I know I had already said if my team signs any of them, they are dead to me. Already did that with the Browns at least til Watson is gone and someone new is running the franchise.

 

[TalkingHead]

2025 domestic box office YTD is about 3% ahead of 2024. Imagine if Wicked had been released last year as one film as originally planned. It’ll be worth seeing it Wicked 2, Zootopia 2, and Avatar 3 can equal the work of Wicked 1, Moana 2, and Mufasa in 2024

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

It’ll be worth seeing it Wicked 2, Zootopia 2, and Avatar 3 can equal the work of Wicked 1, Moana 2, and Mufasa in 2024

I think that’s a safe bet. Wicked 2 should match the first, probably a little higher due to people who’ve since seen the first at home, I’m pessimistic Zoo2 will match Moana2 but think it’ll still be a big number ($750m range), and while I think Avatar3 will be a huge drop from Avatar 2 I think it’ll still double Mufasa’s box office. ($1.5b range).

I don’t think the studios will see 2025 as a huge win but a small win is infinitely better than a L.

 

[Disney Irish]

2025 domestic box office YTD is about 3% ahead of 2024. Imagine if Wicked had been released last year as one film as originally planned. It’ll be worth seeing it Wicked 2, Zootopia 2, and Avatar 3 can equal the work of Wicked 1, Moana 2, and Mufasa in 2024

Depends on how you view 2025...

If you count the holdovers from 2024 then its 3.3% ahead of 2024, but still 9.2% behind 2023 -

But if you count only 2025 releases, then its basically flat (which is a good way to look at this year) and even more behind 2023 -

So basically all those holdovers from 2024 continues to be what holds up 2025, at least until the holidays.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Tron looking at an $11 million second weekend as Black Phone 2 opens #1 at $24 million

The original Tron grossed $90 million adjusted for inflation. Tron 3 might not even get there.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

I think that’s a safe bet. Wicked 2 should match the first, probably a little higher due to people who’ve since seen the first at home, I’m pessimistic Zoo2 will match Moana2 but think it’ll still be a big number ($750m range), and while I think Avatar3 will be a huge drop from Avatar 2 I think it’ll still double Mufasa’s box office. ($1.5b range).

If Zootopia doesn't gross over $600 million worldwide, there's a good chance the two blue alien movies will be the only Disney releases in the top 10 for the year.

 

[CoastalElite64]

Will Tron even cross 100 million?

 

[Disney Irish]

Will Tron even cross 100 million?

I assume you mean domestic because worldwide it’s at $76M already. At $46M domestic currently, I think max I see is $120M. But that’ll be a stretch in my opinion, but we’ll see.

 

[DKampy]

If Zootopia doesn't gross over $600 million worldwide, there's a good chance the two blue alien movies will be the only Disney releases in the top 10 for the year.

I do not see that being a problem…. The holidays are the leggiest time for family movies…. At worst I believe it will do about what Mufasa grossed last year….but I predict a much better haul then that….as the first Zootopia was much better received then the Lion King remake among the eyes of the general public…. Even if I disagree

 

[Figments Friend]

I think it is a shame TRON Ares is tanking at the box office.
This is a fantastic movie experience, and more people should give it a chance.

People need to ignore the bad press and percieved negative connections seeping from social media and just GO and see this movie on the biggest screen possible.
It is absolutely incredible in IMAX 3D!

Oh…and today is the last day to see it in IMAX apparently….so get your butts to a theatre now!

Sadly, like a lot of recent Disney films, the general public as a whole is just going to wait until it hits streaming.
That is sad, as there comes a time when some films such as TRON Ares really are enhanced by a big screen experience.
It IS the experience…and adds so much to what the film is about.

I think a lot of potential viewers will check it out on streaming when it hits the waves soon and then regret not seeing it in a theatre.
The film has a epicness that cannot translate onto a tiny screen.
Gotta go big, or just go home.

SEE TRON Ares in IMAX !


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[Prince-1]

I think it is a shame TRON Ares is tanking at the box office.
This is a fantastic movie experience, and more people should give it a chance.

People need to ignore the bad press and percieved negative connections seeping from social media and just GO and see this movie on the biggest screen possible.
It is absolutely incredible in IMAX 3D!

Oh…and today is the last day to see it in IMAX apparently….so get your butts to a theatre now!

Sadly, like a lot of recent Disney films, the general public as a whole is just going to wait until it hits streaming.
That is sad, as there comes a time when some films such as TRON Ares really are enhanced by a big screen experience.
It IS the experience…and adds so much to what the film is about.

I think a lot of potential viewers will check it out on streaming when it hits the waves soon and then regret not seeing it in a theatre.
The film has a epicness that cannot translate onto a tiny screen.
Gotta go big, or just go home.

SEE TRON Ares in IMAX !


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I’m glad you liked it as much as you did, but I thought it was exceptionally average and seeing how bad it did I think this will be the last Tron movie that ever is made.