That's a good question, and I am perfectly happy to answer questions like this. However...it's complicated because Disney is a complicated business. Honestly, I graduated top of my class, read 10Ks because I find them interesting...and I only read Disney's last year because it's a monstrosity.
First off, Disney is set to release another 10-K filing. I dislike reading quarterly findings because they're not as robust and they're not audited, meaning they could have errors. So at the time of the last release, tariffs were not a thing.
However, merchandising revenue didn't increase from 2023 to 2024. It dropped a bit.
View attachment 887645
What I specifically don't like in this statement from a business perspective is these two statements:
View attachment 887646
That means most of the revenue increase is coming from increased prices, not growth.
This is also interesting as most of their attendance growth was from international attendance, not domestic parks. Concerning as here we go again increasing prices in the domestic parks
View attachment 887647
And yes, we do want to look wholistically at statements and factor in costs. We can't just factor in revenue, because if revenue increased but the costs are out of control that's an issue. Revenue increases to operating income last year were very similar - 5% increased in revenue to 4% increase in profit. However, with any business, I'd want to see increases in revenue that result from something other than price increases because that's just keeping a business afloat, not setting it up for long term success.
I do thing they are doing the right thing with the new land expansions because this will increase capacity and drive attendance; however, it's going to take a bit to see this reflected. You'll also see a jump in depreciation costs after those lands are built. I don't like the current price increases; however, when they have already shown they have had difficulty keeping attendance up.
Back to merchandising between 2023 and 2024 was fairly consistent in terms of volume; that 1% drop was currency related.
Which brings up a strength with Disney: with their international operations, they're slightly more resistant to tariffs and the effects. As shown above, though, they take that risk back with potentially unfavorable exchange rates. Merchandise pricing and tariffs is a complex issue. That's why you have pricing analysts and cost accountants who specifically determine pricing for merchandising. Because yes, you may need to increase your prices because your cost of goods sold is too high.
I am interested to see the next 10K release. I do expect costs have gone up because it's this chain reaction in the economy. My primary concern with the prior 10K, however, is the statements around park ticket increases because the growth is driven primarily, especially in the US, by the price increases and not because they're offering more services, have increased guest spending, etc.
Now, just because I don't like it doesn't mean we should go to doomsday reactions. This means they need to adjust course, not that they're going out of business (they are nowhere near that point...you want a company that won't be around much longer, see Spirit Airlines), not that they'll sell the parks, etc.
So back to the original question around the effect of tariffs: yes I expect them to affect costs. Yes I want to look at net operating profit and compare the increase to revenue. But until Disney releases their financials, it's hard to say what the exact impact is, and due to the nature of their business, they're a bit more resistant to them than many other businesses, but they have other risk factors.