Posted vs Actual Times

[The Colonel]

I know its not news that posted wait times are inflated. Is there anyone tracking actuals vs posted wait times? I just got back and I paid a little more attention than usual and noted that actuals were roughly half of posted wait times. I even encountered a 15 minute posted wait that was actually a walk-on. 35 minutes was 12 minutes in reality. Where are they getting these wait times from? Is there actually a corporate policy to inflate these times? Scandalous!

 

[nickys]

I know its not news that posted wait times are inflated. Is there anyone tracking actuals vs posted wait times? I just got back and I paid a little more attention than usual and noted that actuals were roughly half of posted wait times. I even encountered a 15 minute posted wait that was actually a walk-on. 35 minutes was 12 minutes in reality. Where are they getting these wait times from? Is there actually a corporate policy to inflate these times? Scandalous!

Touring Plans tracks their estimated times vs actual times. Pretty sure they also track posted times too.

 

[Andrew25]

Combination of taking into consideration an influx of LL users, attraction downtime, etc.

I can't prove this with data, but I'm also pretty sure they impose artificial "floors" for posted waits so that the rides never appear to have any periods of low waits. Rarely is Velocicoaster at IOA below a posted 45-min wait (even with it being a 15 min wait). Same for Hagrid, always guaranteed to show a 60-75 min wait.

 

[Stripes]

I know its not news that posted wait times are inflated. Is there anyone tracking actuals vs posted wait times? I just got back and I paid a little more attention than usual and noted that actuals were roughly half of posted wait times. I even encountered a 15 minute posted wait that was actually a walk-on. 35 minutes was 12 minutes in reality. Where are they getting these wait times from? Is there actually a corporate policy to inflate these times? Scandalous!

When I visited Epic, a 95 minute posted wait for Ministry turned into 150 minutes. We got in line again when it was a 35 minute posted wait. It was actually a walk-on.

 

[peter11435]

I know its not news that posted wait times are inflated. Is there anyone tracking actuals vs posted wait times? I just got back and I paid a little more attention than usual and noted that actuals were roughly half of posted wait times. I even encountered a 15 minute posted wait that was actually a walk-on. 35 minutes was 12 minutes in reality. Where are they getting these wait times from? Is there actually a corporate policy to inflate these times? Scandalous!

There is no policy to inflate wait times. The corporate/executive goal is for wait times to be as accurate as possible. There are actually reports and audits that take place to assess how accurate posted wait times are. Again the goal is for them to be accurate and not over/under posted. There are a variety of reasons why they are often off.

 

[The Colonel]

It’s odd how skewed the posted wait times became after paid LLs began. I’m sure the actual vs posted wait times data is out there somewhere. I would love to see that data before and after paid fast passes began. Not that I don’t trust Disney management, of course.

 

[nickys]

There is no policy to inflate wait times. The corporate/executive goal is for wait times to be as accurate as possible. There are actually reports and audits that take place to assess how accurate posted wait times are. Again the goal is for them to be accurate and not over/under posted. There are a variety of reasons why they are often off.

Reasons such as?

I’m asking because if they have reports of the accuracy, then they obviously know there are times when the posted times are twice the actual time.

How do they estimate the posted times these days? Partially I assume by where the queue extends to, but what else?

And towards the end of the night, they absolutely know the times aren’t accurate. The only reasons they could post 45 minutes when it’s really a walk on are either someone has failed to look at the queue or they are trying to stop people from jumping in line.

 

[SingleRider]

Reasons such as?

I’m asking because if they have reports of the accuracy, then they obviously know there are times when the posted times are twice the actual time.

How do they estimate the posted times these days? Partially I assume by where the queue extends to, but what else?

And towards the end of the night, they absolutely know the times aren’t accurate. The only reasons they could post 45 minutes when it’s really a walk on are either someone has failed to look at the queue or they are trying to stop people from jumping in line.

My favorite one was when they announced over the loudspeaker as I walked through the 7DMT queue on a MVMCP night 5 minutes before the park closed to those without wristbands that there was a 50 minute wait and I waited less than 5 minutes after I stopped just walking straight through the queue.

 

[Fido Chuckwagon]

I know its not news that posted wait times are inflated. Is there anyone tracking actuals vs posted wait times? I just got back and I paid a little more attention than usual and noted that actuals were roughly half of posted wait times. I even encountered a 15 minute posted wait that was actually a walk-on. 35 minutes was 12 minutes in reality. Where are they getting these wait times from? Is there actually a corporate policy to inflate these times? Scandalous!

@lentesta ’s fantastic “Lines” app tracks these very well in real time. In my experience, Lines is +/- 5 minutes of the actual wait time. I always use it in the parks.

 

[nickys]

@lentesta ’s fantastic “Lines” app tracks these very well in real time. In my experience, Lines is +/- 5 minutes of the actual wait time. I always use it in the parks.

And the more people who post their wait times to the Lines app, the more accurate it is.

 

[lentesta]

I know its not news that posted wait times are inflated. Is there anyone tracking actuals vs posted wait times? I just got back and I paid a little more attention than usual and noted that actuals were roughly half of posted wait times. I even encountered a 15 minute posted wait that was actually a walk-on. 35 minutes was 12 minutes in reality. Where are they getting these wait times from? Is there actually a corporate policy to inflate these times? Scandalous!

We've probably collected hundreds of thousands of actual wait times over the years. I haven't done the math but I think the posted wait times in 2025 are more accurate than they've been historically.

A certain amount of inflation is common across the industry, for a variety of reasons and circumstances. I don't think Disney's doing anything beyond that. As in, I don't think they're inflating wait times to sell Lightning Lane.

Here's a set of files for MK actual vs posted wait times over the years at key attractions, in case anyone wants to look for themselves. There are just under 61,000 actual wait times in just the Space Mountain file and something like 600K posteds.

 

[lentesta]

@lentesta ’s fantastic “Lines” app tracks these very well in real time. In my experience, Lines is +/- 5 minutes of the actual wait time. I always use it in the parks.

Thanks! I'm working on better intraday adjustments now. Sometimes the posteds change so fast and so much that it throws off the algorithm we're using.

Unrelated to Disney, the posted waits at Epic Universe's Battle at the Ministry are so far under the actual waits that we also need to check for that. That's a first.

 

[UNCgolf]

I've always said it would stupid not to inflate the times at least a little.

People are happy if a line is faster than they were expecting. People are very, very unhappy if a line is longer than they were expecting, especially if it's significantly longer. It makes sense to have a cushion to avoid the latter scenario.