WDW July 4 2025

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I don’t use the app as an arbiter of wait times and I don’t know where I said that I did. I usually set a timer when I get in standby to see what the wait times really are. That said, I usually travel with two people that do not like waiting in standby lines, so we will sometimes purchase lightning lane.

The person that farted in line was me. I didn’t want people to be around me.

Perhaps you do not…but one of the dumbest examples of groupthink (which wdw customers excel at) for a growing dumber of years is people looking at the posted wait times on the app and then forming “on the ground” opinions based on them no matter where they are.

I have literally been in semi vacated parks at the same time ive seen posts saying “it’s mobbed!!” Posted about the very park and the app used as “evidence”

Stupid comments never help anyone. They spread bad info

 

[lentesta]

We have a couple of seemingly contradictory things happening:

(1) Disney's CFO said on May's earnings call that future bookings for April-June 2025 were up 4% and that July-September bookings were up 7%, with 50-60% of those locked in (i.e., paid in full). And that attendance was good:

Hugh Johnston

Okay. Hey, Michael. Hugh here . That's -- I think that was three questions, but I'll do my best to remember them all and answer them. In terms of the first piece, the outlook, the outlook is actually still quite strong for the experiences business. Bookings right now for Walt Disney World for the third quarter are up 4% and that's with about what we would say is about 80% in.

And then for the fourth quarter, bookings are up 7%, that's probably somewhere between 50% and 60% at this point. So certainly looking very optimistic and that was part of what factored into our change in the guidance going forward. In terms of your question on international, it's not getting any worse. And again, just to reiterate what Josh mentioned on the CNBC attendance is actually still quite good. It's just per cap spending isn't quite as high.

(2) Wait times are lower than historical averages.

Let's assume that everyone's telling the truth - bookings are up, attendance is still good, and the wait times being reported are correct. How does that happen?

My current hypothesis is that it's three things:

- The crackdown on DAS abuse in 2023 has led to much shorter Lightning Lane (LL) lines. Since LLs are priority queues, fewer people in the LL means shorter standby waits. As an example, standby wait times for last Christmas were down 14-20% from 2023, without a corresponding change in attendance.

- In April, Disney bumped up the amount of ride capacity dedicated to standby by changing the LL:Standby guest ratio at the merge points. (I have this in writing, so this isn't really a hypothesis.)

- I suspect Disney's trying to ensure posted wait times are not overinflated, which makes them more accurate. The most straightforward reason for this is "let's not get sued for selling LLs based on artifically high waits."

If anyone has other ideas, I'd love to hear them.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

(2) Wait times are lower than historical averages.

It’s not just the wait times though - the parks themselves are comparatively empty.

Even the skyliner line after Luminous was shorter than usual.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

We have a couple of seemingly contradictory things happening:

(1) Disney's CFO said on May's earnings call that future bookings for April-June 2025 were up 4% and that July-September bookings were up 7%, with 50-60% of those locked in (i.e., paid in full). And that attendance was good:



(2) Wait times are lower than historical averages.

Let's assume that everyone's telling the truth - bookings are up, attendance is still good, and the wait times being reported are correct. How does that happen?

My current hypothesis is that it's three things:

- The crackdown on DAS abuse in 2023 has led to much shorter Lightning Lane (LL) lines. Since LLs are priority queues, fewer people in the LL means shorter standby waits. As an example, standby wait times for last Christmas were down 14-20% from 2023, without a corresponding change in attendance.

- In April, Disney bumped up the amount of ride capacity dedicated to standby by changing the LL:Standby guest ratio at the merge points. (I have this in writing, so this isn't really a hypothesis.)

- I suspect Disney's trying to ensure posted wait times are not overinflated, which makes them more accurate. The most straightforward reason for this is "let's not get sued for selling LLs based on artifically high waits."

If anyone has other ideas, I'd love to hear them.

When you move the “reference point” to meet the desired conclusion…it’s neither lying nor accountable to anything.

They’ve been doing that for decades.

Up?

Over 1973 during the oil embargo? No doubt

It’s really silly that anyone (not you…of course) is under the ridiculous false assumption that a nametag injects the wearer with “truth serum”

But anytime we talk about the common sense reality…people get all amped up. As if they can’t sleep at night in Pennsylvania if the concept they twist to present what’s best for their goals to the public? I’m pretty sure it’s like a disorder or something?

There is ZERO evidence bookings are up. You can do this from the Armchair…just look for rooms. Not hard.

Now dvc seems pretty juiced for the rest of the year…but that doesn’t equate to “bookings are up”. And perhaps the tumbleweeds rolling through the park is due to off property decline? People forget the on property rooms don’t account for as much of the crowds as we assume…

But they’re not selling more tickets. Nope. Not mathematically possible. And they don’t have to lie about it…because they never comment/line item that in the first place.

It’s all speculative and they have plausible deniability.

Unless…they can’t post quarterly revenue and profit increases. Then the wind blows the house or cards down in full view.

It may never happen - however

 

[lentesta]

It’s not just the wait times though - the parks themselves are comparatively empty.

Even the skyliner line after Luminous was shorter than usual.

How can the parks be comparatively empty with the CFO saying that "attendance is quite good" and bookings up 4-7%?

There is ZERO evidence bookings are up. You can do this from the Armchair…just look for rooms. Not hard.

The CFO's not making a materially and intentionally false statement in an earnings call. Even if he did, legal would've corrected it by now.

I mean, if the choices are "it's an Enron-style house of cards" and "it's something else", I'm going with the latter.

 

[bmr1591]

Local passholder block outs certainly have some effect on especially EPCOT.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

How can the parks be comparatively empty with the CFO saying that "attendance is quite good" and bookings up 4-7%?

I’m not sure. I don’t think your DAS theory really works either since the guests who no longer qualify for DAS don’t disappear - in theory they would be moving to standby.

Safari was a literal walk on yesterday, and dinosaur and avatar boat ride were 20 minutes or less. (I didn’t time the actual waits but avatar was less than 5 minutes to the merge point).

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

How can the parks be comparatively empty with the CFO saying that "attendance is quite good" and bookings up 4-7%?



The CFO's not making a materially and intentionally false statement in an earnings call. Even if he did, legal would've corrected it by now.

I mean, if the choices are "it's an Enron-style house of cards" and "it's something else", I'm going with the latter.

You’ve been at this a long time. How many times have things said not come to pass?

There’s always plausible deniability on any statement…it’s how companies avoid getting into trouble…and I honeslty don’t think there are watchers anymore anyway.

“Bookings are up” is an empty statement. Up from what? And even if they have a number to references…bookings are not guaranteed. It’s a prediction. If it doesn’t come to pass, there is no way to tie them to it.

“Bookings declined due to economics uncertainty and changing conditions within the market”

It’s the business equivalent to: “I don’t remember saying that…” to Congress.

Complete loophole. Legal. Common practice.

Those parks are empty, my man. Unless there is ALOT of trick photography going down…it can’t be denied.

The paths are empty…the restaurants are close…

Not everybody in an “up” crowd is hiding in the line for mine train or in the dvc lounges.

If the places in the parks that handle the crowd flow by design are visibly empty…what conclusions can be made?

Even the chokepoints aren’t following pattern. In a recent trip at DAK there was one…one line with people moving into it…3 hours into the park. Safaris had a line and flow. The rest had posted not much and even less on the ground. Including avatar…and Everest. I highly doubt half the attendance slept in that day?

There’s no “there” there. I’ve seen it increasing for 3 years…so I must be delusional if HUGE JOHNSON is saying it’s not so?

 

[Chi84]

We have a couple of seemingly contradictory things happening:

(1) Disney's CFO said on May's earnings call that future bookings for April-June 2025 were up 4% and that July-September bookings were up 7%, with 50-60% of those locked in (i.e., paid in full). And that attendance was good:



(2) Wait times are lower than historical averages.

Let's assume that everyone's telling the truth - bookings are up, attendance is still good, and the wait times being reported are correct. How does that happen?

My current hypothesis is that it's three things:

- The crackdown on DAS abuse in 2023 has led to much shorter Lightning Lane (LL) lines. Since LLs are priority queues, fewer people in the LL means shorter standby waits. As an example, standby wait times for last Christmas were down 14-20% from 2023, without a corresponding change in attendance.

- In April, Disney bumped up the amount of ride capacity dedicated to standby by changing the LL:Standby guest ratio at the merge points. (I have this in writing, so this isn't really a hypothesis.)

- I suspect Disney's trying to ensure posted wait times are not overinflated, which makes them more accurate. The most straightforward reason for this is "let's not get sued for selling LLs based on artifically high waits."

If anyone has other ideas, I'd love to hear them.

How can the parks be comparatively empty with the CFO saying that "attendance is quite good" and bookings up 4-7%?



The CFO's not making a materially and intentionally false statement in an earnings call. Even if he did, legal would've corrected it by now.

I mean, if the choices are "it's an Enron-style house of cards" and "it's something else", I'm going with the latter.

Thank you for posting credible, verifiable information in this thread and restoring some sanity to it. It goes along with what many of us have been seeing with our own eyes.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

It goes along with what many of us have been seeing with our own eyes.

I wasn’t aware you were here this week? What have you been seeing?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Thank you for posting credible, verifiable information in this thread and restoring some sanity to it. It goes along with what many of us have been seeing with our own eyes.

He basically said none of it washes/makes sense

Which got ALOT of blowback when suggested 3 months ago.

“Face value” from the management should always be watched…always

 

[Chi84]

He basically said none of it washes/makes sense

I interpreted the post as offering possible explanations for contradictory information and asking for other plausible explanations.

 

[lentesta]

“Bookings are up” is an empty statement. Up from what? And even if they have a number to references…bookings are not guaranteed. It’s a prediction. If it doesn’t come to pass, there is no way to tie them to it.

“Bookings declined due to economics uncertainty and changing conditions within the market”

It’s the business equivalent to: “I don’t remember saying that…” to Congress.

Johnston said specifically those bookings were "in", i.e., payment for the trips had already been received. My link above has his words. The "up" obviously refers to year over year trends.

If the CFO is saying the bookings and revenue are there, they're there.

Again, wait times at WDW were down 14-20% over Christmas. Disney's had an earnings call since then. The CFO specifically said attendance was "still quite good". Either the entire executive team is risking jail, or there's another explanation. I think it's Park Ops doing the Lord's work, not fraud.

 

[Chi84]

Johnston said specifically those bookings were "in", i.e., payment for the trips had already been received. My link above has his words. The "up" obviously refers to year over year trends.

If the CFO is saying the bookings and revenue are there, they're there.

Again, wait times at WDW were down 14-20% over Christmas. Disney's had an earnings call since then. The CFO specifically said attendance was "still quite good". Either the entire executive team is risking jail, or there's another explanation. I think it's Park Ops doing the Lord's work, not fraud.

Thank you for clarifying.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Johnston said specifically those bookings were "in", i.e., payment for the trips had already been received. My link above has his words. The "up" obviously refers to year over year trends.

If the CFO is saying the bookings and revenue are there, they're there.

Again, wait times at WDW were down 14-20% over Christmas. Disney's had an earnings call since then. The CFO specifically said attendance was "still quite good". Either the entire executive team is risking jail, or there's another explanation. I think it's Park Ops doing the Lord's work, not fraud.

So then their estimate cannot include what they presume to be booked in between that proclamation and the dates of travel?

Because they certainly can do that and then come in short. They can use historic data as their basis of prediction. No “financial misleading” at all.

Let’s put that aside and assume the rooms are juice and just nobody goes to parks (a bit of a stretch…but ok…I guess?)

What’s going on here, Len?

And epic isn’t packed either…nor is it 125 degrees…nor are people just “not into it” because they went in 2022…

Let’s toss the bad excuses out…
…what do they have going?

Everyone is gonna wait to October and they’ll pack 200K in the magic kingdom and built a tent city next to Coronado?

Sir Arthur Conan Doyle type stuff here

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I interpreted the post as offering possible explanations for contradictory information and asking for other plausible explanations.

Semantics

“Possible explanations for contradictory information” can be easy boiled down to “head scratcher”

No?

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

I think it's Park Ops doing the Lord's work,

Ah so it was just bad park ops keeping the wait times up previously? You really believe that?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Ah so it was just bad park ops keeping the wait times up previously? You really believe that?

Wait times are not the same as aggregate crowd levels.

The first is outside my league. Len has made a science out of tracking/predicting them. The gold standard.

I - as an amateur - am fascinated by the other. Amount of people in the resort/park = revenue potential = ability to operate with margins

Why do I care? Because if that number starts to fall…their only options is to increase prices and often for lesser product. We all should care. Because it sucks. Any way you look at it. Trying to “pay until your personal breaking point” is a crappy tactic for a leisure enterprise. And though I’m not there (yet)…many have fallen behind us that we will never meet. And then the next are up. It’s like the “circle of death”

 

[Chi84]

Semantics

“Possible explanations for contradictory information” can be easy boiled down to “head scratcher”

No?

Not at all.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Not at all.

Send me your dictionary and I’ll brush up