Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Animaniac93-98]

First… film… in… a… new… series.

People seem to have convinced themselves that the Avengers films, the culmination of a decade of less profitable buildup, was the standard. Which is very silly.

Here's a list of post phase 1 MCU intro movies and their global grosses (all unadjusted):

Eternals: $402 million
Shang-Chi: $432 million
Ant Man: $512 million
Doctor Strange: $677 million
Guardians of the Galaxy: $773 million
Captain Marvel: $1.1 billion
Black Panther: $1.3 billion

Average gross: $742 million

Deadpool 1 also made $782 million.

$700 million is not an unrealistic expectation for an MCU movie, even a 1st character intro (which Thunderbolts technically isn't, as some characters were introduced prior).

Again, few here have said that Thunderbolts is a flop, or won't turn a profit, but $500 million globally is not blockbuster status for an MCU movie in 2025, nor likely Disney's expectation for success. Even accounting for outliers like The Marvels and changing movie habits, we know how much No Way Home, GotG 3, Deadpool 3, Black Panther 2 and Doctor Strange 2 did.

 

[Disney Irish]

Here's a list of post phase 1 MCU intro movies and their global grosses (all unadjusted):

Eternals: $402 million
Shang-Chi: $432 million
Ant Man: $512 million
Doctor Strange: $677 million
Guardians of the Galaxy: $773 million
Captain Marvel: $1.1 billion
Black Panther: $1.3 billion

Average gross: $742 million

Deadpool 1 also made $782 million.

$700 million is not an unrealistic expectation for an MCU movie, even a 1st character intro (which Thunderbolts technically isn't, as some characters were introduced prior).

Again, few here have said that Thunderbolts is a flop, or won't turn a profit, but you've become obsessed with this idea that $500 million globally is blockbuster status for an MCU movie in 2025 and it just isn't. Even accounting for outliers like The Marvels and changing movie habits, we know how much No Way Home, GotG 3, Deadpool 3, Black Panther 2 and Doctor Strange 2 did.

Take out the two $1B+ movies (as they actually skew the average and I think you know that because they are the outliers not the norm which is why you acknowledge it but don't give the actual average without them) and the average actually drops to $559M, which I think is a much more realistic expectation. Now yes several haven't gotten to that point, and I can acknowledge that most of that is because of the quality that many feel have dropped with the MCU. But the hope is the moving forward we should see that change, and I hope it starts with Thunderbolts as you can feel the difference between it and the others post-Endgame. We'll see what the final number is when it comes in.

The bottom line is people started expecting that the MCU would just continue to do $1B+ because that was what they saw as the norm in the run up to Endgame. But the reality is that out of 36 total movies, only 11 got over $1B. That is something like only 30%. That is high for almost all franchises, but its not the reality or sustainable. It was never going to be that every movie, especially post-Endgame, was going to continue getting $1B+. And when that didn't happen they wrote off the MCU as failing, when in reality it was just coming back to a more normal level.

 

[Disney Irish]

I think there’s a big gap between how much people’s expectations have changed though, personally I don’t expect MCU films to do $1 billion plus anymore but I do still expect them to do $700 million, that’s a 30% decrease in expectation, and still provides a couple hundred million in profit to Disney, many people seem to have decreased their MCU expectation to $400-500 million now, a 50-60% decrease, I don’t think that’s realistic, it’s certainly not an expectation that should result in more MCU movies being made anyway. If the expectation isn’t at least $100 million in profit there’s no incentive for Disney to continue spending hundreds of millions on the MCU, they should spend that money elsewhere with a bigger expectation to actually make a profit.

I think its fair to have a more realistic expectation, whether that is $500M or $700M can be debated. But I don't think its fair however to decry the failure of the MCU if some movies don't hit whatever that expectation might be. As there are more factors than just what is on-screen that affects the box office. Many of which has been discussed ad nauseam here about the state of the box office.

Also has noted above if you take out the outliers of the $1B+ intro movies post-phase 1 and the average is actually $559M. So that is really what the expectation should be for most MCU films like Thunderbolts. Now will it get to that, I don't know. We'll have to wait and see.

 

[Tha Realest]

“The math doesn’t look as bad if you take off the top two earning films.”

I just tried that argument unsuccessfully with my property tax assessment. It works as well here as it did there.

 

[Disney Irish]

Even accounting for outliers like The Marvels and changing movie habits, we know how much No Way Home, GotG 3, Deadpool 3, Black Panther 2 and Doctor Strange 2 did.

I did want to pull this part out and comment on it. Notice what all those films have in common..... They are sequels to already established characters. So the through line here is that general audiences will show up in droves for established characters. And that hardcore fans will show up new character movies which sets up the ground work for future movies.

That is the take away from this. That is the expectation that should be set here in general. Of course you'll have the outliers on either side of the equation, but going back and looking at it that has been for the most part on average the case since 2008.

 

[Disney Irish]

“The math doesn’t look as bad if you take off the top two earning films.”

I just tried that argument unsuccessfully with my property tax assessment. It works as well here as it did there.

Statistics is not taxes, so your argument doesn't work here. You have to account for the outliers when you're talking averages, and when you have two that just completely skew the results you have to remove them otherwise you artificially inflate your results as any good data analyst would know.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

“The math doesn’t look as bad if you take off the top two earning films.”

I just tried that argument unsuccessfully with my property tax assessment. It works as well here as it did there.

Taking out out the two lowest grossing movies (because of impacts to theater operations in 2021) also skews the average

$400 million is the floor. The only two lower than that are both phase 1 movies released 14-17 years ago...unadjusted. Over a billion is the ceiling because sometimes lightning strikes and you reach a wider audience than expected.

You reach a median or average by looking at a collection of data showing a wide range of numbers, not just some of them.

Despite all the excuses, $700 million worldwide is not an impossible figure for a genuine MCU hit. We've had post-Endgame/2020 releases sail past that number several times.

 

[Serpico Jones]

Disney doesn’t make these movies for them to break even.

 

[Disney Irish]

Averaging out all movies of the MCU since 2008 when you include all $1B+ movies and even Thunderbolts as of today and assume it made no more money, the average is $879M. When you take out the $1B+ movies and include Thunderbolts as of today again assuming it made no more money, the average is $589M. Even if you took out Thunderbolts because we assume it'll make more money, the average is $606M. So the range to me is $500-$650M on average is good for an MCU movie, and as @Animaniac93-98 rightfully said $400M should be the floor.

The $1B+ movies are the outlier in the MCU, they aren't the average, they are the exception to the rule not the rule itself. They should not be the expectation, which is the whole point of this discussion.

 

[Serpico Jones]

Averaging out all movies of the MCU since 2008 when you include all $1B+ movies and even Thunderbolts as of today and assume it made no more money, the average is $879M. When you take out the $1B+ movies and include Thunderbolts as of today again assuming it made no more money, the average is $589M. Even if you took out Thunderbolts because we assume it'll make more money, the average is $606M. So the range to me is $500-$650M on average is good for an MCU movie, and as @Animaniac93-98 rightfully said $400M should be the floor.

The $1B+ movies are the outlier in the MCU, they aren't the average, they are the exception to the rule not the rule itself. They should not be the expectation, which is the whole point of this discussion.

Then you can’t keep spending $200m a movie. The budgets need to come down considerably.

Theatrical exhibition is barely a business anymore.

 

[Disney Irish]

Disney doesn’t make these movies for them to break even.

"We don't make movies to make money, we make money to make movies." - Walt Disney

So tell me again how Disney, a company that in a large majority of its history lost more money on movies then it made, doesn't make movies for them to break even. People have forgotten the decades upon decades of the history of this company and only remember the 2010s and beyond.

 

[Disney Irish]

Then you can’t keep spending $200m a movie. The budgets need to come down considerably.

Theatrical exhibition is barely a business anymore.

And neither point do I disagree with.

 

[Serpico Jones]

Disney haven’t been able to make content that really grabs the attention of Gen Z. Netflix has been able to do it with their content (Stranger Things, One Piece, Wednesday) while Disney has struggled in this regard. If you’re going to spend $200m on a movie or series you have to have Gen Z accounted for.

 

[DisneyHead123]

Disney haven’t been able to make content that really grabs the attention of Gen Z. Netflix has been able to do it with their content (Stranger Things, One Piece, Wednesday) while Disney has struggled in this regard. If you’re going to spend $200m on a movie or series you have to have Gen Z accounted for.

Partially agree. I’m going to assume Gen Z saw movies like The Little Mermaid live action and Inside Out 2 as much as any other generation. But they didn’t go absolutely viral with that demographic (although Descendants was huge with their younger siblings, Gen Alpha.)

 

[Disney Irish]

Disney haven’t been able to make content that really grabs the attention of Gen Z. Netflix has been able to do it with their content (Stranger Things, One Piece, Wednesday) while Disney has struggled in this regard. If you’re going to spend $200m on a movie or series you have to have Gen Z accounted for.

Again a point I don't necessarily disagree with. Gen Z in general I think is the lost generation to many companies as their trends tend to change very quickly.

I think movies like Inside Out and Inside Out 2 did appeal to Gen Z, which is why they both did so well. Same with Moana and Moana 2. So I don't think Disney is completely gone to Gen Z, I just think most saw traditional Disney as for "babies" and Pixar more to their liking which is why Pixar has had such a following in the 2010s to today.

 

[Agent H]

Disney haven’t been able to make content that really grabs the attention of Gen Z. Netflix has been able to do it with their content (Stranger Things, One Piece, Wednesday) while Disney has struggled in this regard. If you’re going to spend $200m on a movie or series you have to have Gen Z accounted for.

Speaking as a younger member of gen z I can tell you that we do have Disney things We are nostalgic for. Most of my peers aren’t Disney animation fans but they do like Pixar. Marvel especially the spider man movies are very popular. certain Disney channel shows are very popular too like phineas and ferb. gravity falls. Kim possible. Star vs the forces of evil. Edit. Stitch is big too and I personally have a soft spot for the clone wars and it’s spin offs.

 

[Serpico Jones]

Again a point I don't necessarily disagree with. Gen Z in general I think is the lost generation to many companies as their trends tend to change very quickly.

I think movies like Inside Out and Inside Out 2 did appeal to Gen Z, which is why they both did so well. Same with Moana and Moana 2. So I don't think Disney is completely gone to Gen Z, I just think most saw traditional Disney as for "babies" and Pixar more to their liking which is why Pixar has had such a following in the 2010s to today.

The question is what do Star Wars and Marvel bring to the table? SW holds no interest for Gen Z and Marvel is a major question mark.

 

[Disney Irish]

The question is what do Star Wars and Marvel bring to the table? SW holds no interest for Gen Z and Marvel is a major question mark.

Now I can't speak for Gen Z as I'm Gen X, and based on the age listed on your profile you're a Millennial. But having been around forums like this and others interacting with Gen Z for a long time I can say that they actually do care about both, albeit probably not as a whole but specific content within each franchise.

With SW I've found that many Gen Z care about the Clone Wars series and the Filoniverse characters in particular. Which is why I think you've seen LFL focus so much on them and given Filoni almost unlimited free rein to tell whatever stories he wants. Some good some bad, but overall ok for the most part.

With Marvel, I think most care about Spider-Man and the Avengers. Which is why those do so well. And why you see a focus back on those characters and trying to bring back together an Avengers level team.

Overall I think both will be ok in the long term, even if in the short term both have stumbled. But such is life, not everything is going to hit with every generation.

 

[celluloid]

Speaking as a younger member of gen z I can tell you that we do have Disney things We are nostalgic for. Most of my peers aren’t Disney animation fans but they do like Pixar. Marvel especially the spider man movies are very popular. certain Disney channel shows are very popular too like phineas and ferb. gravity falls. Kim possible. Star vs the forces of evil.

The Pixar films the Gen Z have helped make succesful were really ones that were from Gen Y that had sequels so it was largely supplimented with audiences already loving the familiar and going to go see the sequels.
Nothing of original theatrical release of Pixar has shown a strong since Gen Z has been around.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Speaking as a younger member of gen z I can tell you that we do have Disney things We are nostalgic for. Most of my peers aren’t Disney animation fans but they do like Pixar. Marvel especially the spider man movies are very popular. certain Disney channel shows are very popular too like phineas and ferb. gravity falls. Kim possible. Star vs the forces of evil.

This lines up with what @BrianLo said about Gen Z growing up during Disney animation's slump in the 2000s

But also makes sense that the same age group would like peak Pixar and Disney Channel at the height of the same time.