News Disney’s Q2 FY25 Earnings Results Webcast

[BrianLo]

They don't to me, given consumer sentiment and the drop in international visitors. But this isn't the first time I've been wrong.

I'm surprised by the future bookings more than anything. Maybe the parks are such a huge draw that macroeconomic and international issues just don't matter.

My suspicion from other companies calls like Royal and Norwegian is that there has been a rotation back for domestic visitors. Those who were finally going to Europe in droves have pulled back domestically. Perhaps that’s enough to cover for the Canadians for now.

Plus I have always, always sided on Epic was going to benefit Disney more than it hurt it; it was Animal Kingdom and the two other Universal Parks which are going to take the brunt of the fallout.

But to the conspiracy theorists out there, this doesn’t jive poorly with other companies travel reports. It’s just the denial of reality that Universal/Comcast is the one having the hardest time transitioning to a three park model, no one else will.

 

[BrianLo]

I just want to say that I didn’t think it would be for sure bad. A large gain came out of streaming, which I have continued to prognosticate positively. It’s going to continue to march very positively for them for the next few years.

As for WDW, they are operating against lowered benchmarks to begin with.

It’s not that the summer is going to be slammed, it’s that it will be a few percentage points up from very slow 2023/2024 summers. I know the “consensus” was unending free-fall. But that was never going to happen. I really wish the person who cried attendance denialism for two years wasn’t such a hypocritical attendance denier.

 

[lentesta]

Do you know how park hopping effects attendance numbers? If I park hop three parks in one day, am I one attendee or three?

I don’t know. I’m sure someone here does!

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I just want to say that I didn’t think it would be for sure bad. A large gain came out of streaming, which I have continued to prognosticate positively. It’s going to continue to march very positively for them for the next few years.

As for WDW, they are operating against lowered benchmarks to begin with.

It’s not that the summer is going to be slammed, it’s that it will be a few percentage points up from very slow 2023/2024 summers. I know the “consensus” was unending free-fall. But that was never going to happen. I really wish the person who cried attendance denialism for two years wasn’t such a hypocritical attendance denier.

Those “large” streaming gains aren’t that large…and the problem will continue to be the cost of content eating up capped fees and ads

Especially if they can’t import it


And I thought I hit my head…so I spent a 1/2 hour searching. Turns out there was zero “consensus”…or really any comments about what they were gonna say. So nobody won or loss. In this case…everyone was caught off guard or it would be braggadocia.

They’re still “down”…by the way…haven’t reached were they were 6 years ago…and there’s a lot of yo yo over that time Period

So if anyone wants to revert to “bobs gonna save us mode”…which Is some kinda mental crutch that psychologists would be challenged to explain…it’s wise to pump the breaks there too.

No one thought they were filing for chapter 11 today…and also no one who’s been to a park recently (and it’s assumed that’s most posters…but far from it) was gonna confidently say “Things are up!!”

So we’re breaking down a battle here that never occurred

 

[Mr. Sullivan]

Very rare when it’s out of the blue…with a park announcement? Very convenient for an underperforming company…which everyone but the motley fool has identified.

There are very few “surprises” in today’s world.

It's not really out of the blue. People have been telling you all for a long time now that you were letting your personal opinions on the parks make you believe the situation was worse than it ever actually was. You just didn't want to believe that, and you now seem to be struggling to cope with the realization that those folks were right. It wasn't really that bad.

Disney is a lot of things as company, but under performing is not really one of them.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It's not really out of the blue. People have been telling you all for a long time now that you were letting your personal opinions on the parks make you believe the situation was worse than it ever actually was. You just didn't want to believe that, and you now seem to be struggling to cope with the realization that those folks were right. It wasn't really that bad.

Disney is a lot of things as company, but under performing is not really one of them.

You’re not a market guy, huh? Because it’s absolutely underperforming

Math is fun

But since you seem to claiming “victory”…I don’t know why?…because you just buy their stuff…it’s not integral to your life…

The core issue remains. Their management is way past expiration date and as long as it has carte Blanche…the rudder is broken.

I wasn’t gonna bring it up…but now that I think about it: what “big hit” was predicted as a major flop here? Do tell…

 

[Ayla]

For clarity, can someone tell me what dates are covering Q2 for Disney? Most companies just started Q4, so I want to make sure I know the dates this report covers.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

For clarity, can someone tell me what dates are covering Q2 for Disney? Most companies just started Q4, so I want to make sure I know the dates this report covers.

Q1 ends 12/31
Q2 ends 3/31
Q3 ends 6/30
Q4 ends 9/30

 

[MR.Dis]

I am not an expert on investments, but my impression was that Disney was never a good dividend stock. So if you bought the stock you either were a Disney lover and wanted a piece of the magic or you thought it was a growth stock and a good chance of capital gains profit on sale. Well the high point was in 2021 at a tad short of $200 a share and after a big jump today it still is only around $110 a share. Here is something to consider in the near future, there are two big movies that were bombs. So in the next quarter or two there will be somewhere around a $200 million write down for Captain America BNW and another over $300 million write down for Snow White. Not an expert on financials but I would think these write downs are going to be a drag on profits, how do you think the stock market will react to the stock price? Just a friendly musing from an old man.

 

[JD80]

For clarity, can someone tell me what dates are covering Q2 for Disney? Most companies just started Q4, so I want to make sure I know the dates this report covers.

Look on the cover of the latest SEC filing. Disney year starts in October.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I am not an expert on investments, but my impression was that Disney was never a good dividend stock. So if you bought the stock you either were a Disney lover and wanted a piece of the magic or you thought it was a growth stock and a good chance of capital gains profit on sale. Well the high point was in 2021 at a tad short of $200 a share and after a big jump today it still is only around $110 a share. Here is something to consider in the near future, there are two big movies that were bombs. So in the next quarter or two there will be somewhere around a $200 million write down for Captain America BNW and another over $300 million write down for Snow White. Not an expert on financials but I would think these write downs are going to be a drag on profits, how do you think the stock market will react to the stock price? Just a friendly musing from an old man.

Correct

Disney isn’t a “modern” stock. What its strength was consistent performance in good times and bad over its history.

Thank god it doesn’t act like a tech stock…that would destroy it.

It’s always been widely held. So that is a lot of nostalgia and feels driving that.

As far as dividends go…they are not used the way they were designed…so they shouldn’t be legal. Neither should buybacks…which if anyone noticed…they are doing

 

[MR.Dis]

Correct

Disney isn’t a “modern” stock. What its strength was consistent performance in good times and bad over its history.

Thank god it doesn’t act like a tech stock…that would destroy it.

It’s always been widely held. So that is a lot of nostalgia and feels driving that.

As far as dividends go…they are not used the way they were designed…so they shouldn’t be legal. Neither should buybacks…which if anyone noticed…they are doing

Smartest thing they could do, buy back the stock while it is cheap. I suggested this a while back on a different forum and was wildly denounced because Disney was too far in debt. And what will they do with the stock, Iger is going to have a record bonus.

 

[Ayla]

Look on the cover of the latest SEC filing. Disney year starts in October.

So January, February and March of this year.

Thanks.

 

[Stripes]

I don’t find any Universal attendance drop to be surprising. Why would anyone go there now when Epic is about to open ?

If Disney was about to open a 5th gate I think we would see a similar phenomenon.

What’s surprising is that Universal is seeing significant attendance declines on both coasts.

Furthermore, if families are delaying their visits for Epic, then I would’ve expected some moderation of attendance at WDW too as families delay trips to Orlando in general.

 

[larryz]

Nice to know they're still squeezing turds from a bloonip.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Smartest thing they could do, buy back the stock while it is cheap. I suggested this a while back on a different forum and was wildly denounced because Disney was too far in debt. And what will they do with the stock, Iger is going to have a record bonus.

Buybacks are fixing your own price to sell it at a higher level to others

It’s pretty much the opposite of what seems fair

 

[larryz]

I'm pleasantly surprised by the domestic theme park attendance numbers, especially for 3Q and 4Q.

It shows how much of a draw the parks are, even for international visitors.

And the current discounting seems like it'll shore up any dip in that.

And, because of current events, we won't have to duck those large groups of dancing and chanting Canadians as they tour the parks en mass!

 

[larryz]

We don't have TEA numbers for 2024 but we're still a few million off peak 2019.

And if occupancy holds north of 90% you'll understand why the CFO said what he said last quarter.

90% occupancy is 2018 and 2019 crowds.

If summer is soft but annual occupancy numbers are high then the fall and winter are going to be nuts.

Is that occupancy of available inventory, or of total inventory?

 

[WoundedDreamer]

What’s surprising is that Universal is seeing significant attendance declines on both coasts.

Furthermore, if families are delaying their visits for Epic, then I would’ve expected some moderation of attendance at WDW too as families delay trips to Orlando in general.

Comcast was pretty clear that declines at Universal’s domestic theme parks were largely driven by Universal Hollywood having a bad quarter and Epic Universe opening expenses. Here’s an excerpt from their earnings call. Comcast President Mike Cavanagh is speaking:

“On theme parks, our first quarter results continued to be stable in Florida. We had preopening expenses for Epic Universe. But excluding that underlying trend stable in Orlando, and what we're seeing for advanced bookings, both ticket sales and hotel bookings are strong for the overall parks and for Epic.

So while I see the same headlines you're sort of seeing about airlines and the like, some of that might be outside the window of our booking windows. But what we're seeing continues to be tracking well. And to your point, some of that is definitely related to the excitement about Epic without a doubt, which -- where reviews and preopening buzz is very strong. And again, ticket sales and advanced plans are a little ahead of our expectations. And so we feel right now, what we see is continued steadiness in the backdrop for parks.

I think one thing that you have to -- our domestic parks do draw a lot of folks from the US and a lot of folks from markets in the South, in the case of Florida that are not necessarily hopping on planes to get there. So there may be a delayed effect between what the airlines are starting to report on and what we see. But like I said, no real sign of that in our business as we sit here now.

And then in L.A., it's all related to getting L.A. back to having the tourism industry broadly recovered after the wildfires. And I think the whole market is continuing to see, people staying away a little bit more than I think the leadership in L.A. broadly or us as a park owner in that market would like it to be. But -- so that's domestic parks. And international trends for Japan and Beijing stable as well.”

It seems like Universal Orlando’s attendance was essentially flat YoY. Both Disney and Universal are having a fine 2025 so far.

 

[Basil of Baker Street]

Park profits are from cost cutting, experience reduction, price increases and LL sales. There are no winners.