Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disstevefan1]

If we didn’t make apologies…and they suffered financial consequences for their mistakes…two things would be better:

1. Disney
2. All of us

Welcome to the “free market”. Survive and advance

Folks are apologizing for Disney and they are still suffering financial consequences.

The free market is at work it seems.

 

[Chi84]

Folks are apologizing for Disney and they are still suffering financial consequences.

The free market is at work it seems.

Folks going to Disney parks and movies isn’t the same as apologizing for Disney.

Apologies have no economic value. If I go to Disney and enjoy myself and someone else goes and hates themself for it, the financial consequences to Disney are the same.

 

[easyrowrdw]

Box Office: ‘Minecraft’ Scores $80 Million in Massive Second Weekend

“A Minecraft Movie” scored a massive $80 million in its second weekend of release and remained at No. 1 at the box office as five new movies opened in theaters. Ticket sales for “A Minecraft Movie” declined 50% from its record-breaking $162.7 million debut, which represents an impressive hold...

www.yahoo.com

Minecraft had a 50% drop but it made $80 million and stayed #1. It’s at $550 million globally after just 10 days. I wonder what Easter weekend will bring.

 

[TP2000]

Well, I was not invited to a catty brunch in Silver Lake today, so I'm doing this instead...

Box office is in domestically for Snow White's 4th weekend in theaters, and she's down in 8th place now. This weekend's slate of new Easter religious movies and basic action movies, plus another top weekend for Minecraft, seems to have taken its toll on Snow White's flatlining trajectory at this point.

Also of note, Snow White lost 1,210 theaters this weekend. (But how many screens????)

The Numbers - Weekend Box Office Chart for October 31, 2025

Weekend Domestic Box Office Chart for the weekend of October 31, 2025

thenumbers.com

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Folks are apologizing for Disney and they are still suffering financial consequences.

The free market is at work it seems.

Not to the level warranted by this collapsed yutz of management

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Also of note, Snow White lost 1,210 theaters this weekend. (But how many screens????)

…pure gold

 

[Chi84]

Not to the level warranted by this collapsed yutz of management

That’s because people keep going to Disney parks and movies.

That’s what free market means. You can’t rush it no matter how much you would like to.

 

[TP2000]

I know it’s fun to pretend that Snow White’s failure is some unfolding news story that is continuing to surprise us, but you already predicted “just a few weeks ago” that the film would probably make less than $100 million domestically:

I honestly think he forgets what he posts half the time, so I forgive him a little bit, but only a little bit.

Sorry for the confusion, but when I posted the estimate below back on March 23rd, I was not predicting it would make less than $100 Million domestically. My worst case scenario three weeks ago was a $150 Million domestic and $150 Million overseas box office, for a box office total of $300 Million globally.

I think you saw my "$90 Domestic" total, and forgot that was Disney's profit from 60% of the domestic box office.
$150 Million Domestic Box Office, with Disney getting 60% of the take, nets $90 Million in profit for Burbank.

Getting back to box office, here's two scenarios that would seem to be playing out for Snow White; a $300 Million global cumulative that seems likely, and a $400 Million global cumulative that would be the best case scenario after this weekend.

It's helpful that the domestic and overseas box office stats seem to be on a nearly identical path, so we'll just continue with that assumption for the totals two months from now.

$300 Million Snow White; Production $250, Marketing $100, Domestic $90, Overseas $60 = $200 Million Loss
$400 Million Snow White: Production $250, Marketing $100, Domestic $120, Overseas $80 = $150 Million Loss

How much is a new night parade again?

It now appears that my Worst Case Scenario of a $300 Million global box office that Mr. Johnson and I crunched out here in the TP2000 Global Command Center on March 23rd was far too optimistic. And my Best Case Scenario of a $400 Million global box office seems laughable now.

I think you’re being unfair to @TP2000 here. He presented two potential performance outcomes for Snow White in the older analysis you quoted. One was more bleak and the other more optimistic. One had Snow White hitting $100 million and the other had it failing to hit that metric.

In the more recent analysis, he has come to the conclusion that the bleak model is more accurate. He said in his post that he was not expecting the bear case to win out over the more bullish outcome. Snow White’s failure is definitionally an unfolding story that ought to be tracked in this thread.

I also have to take issue with you criticizing him for following box office trends in the “Box Office - Current State of Affairs” thread. His post is more consistent with the thread’s stated purpose than many of your most recent posts in the thread.

Let the man track his numbers in peace!

Thank you! In @LittleBuford's defense, I should have made it more clear that the $300 Million global box office had a 60/40 domestic/overseas box office take for Burbank. I use that equation constantly, but when you skim a thread it's easy to forget. I'm a famous thread skimmer myself, so no harm done.

Although the tone towards me and the data I offer could be a tad kinder, I do admit.

You’re entitled to your opinion. I don’t think I’m being unfair to him. His earlier post presented the bleaker outcome as the likelier, so your characterisation of what he said is incorrect.

I will redouble my efforts to note that Burbank's take is 60% of domestic and 40% of overseas box office.

For those still with us, here's the current Worst Case Scenario as of April 11th, compared to the March 23rd scenario.

April 11th Worst Case Scenario, using a 60/40 domestic/overseas box office take, assuming today's latest box office data that shows it's heading to about a $90 Million domestic final tally and a $130 Million Overseas final tally:

$220 Million Snow White: Production $270, Marketing $100, Domestic $54, Overseas $52 = $264 Million Loss

While I totally agree that this thread has been derailed into a tiresome argument about Snow White, @TP2000’s box-office updates shouldn’t obscure the fact that he is one of the main contributors to that derailment. (I am too; I don’t deny it.)

Snow White is really Disney's only movie in theaters right now, and it's a box office tale of tragic proportions and over two years of epically bad PR from it's leading actress, which had a major part in its box office bomb status. What else are we supposed to talk about this month in the Disney At The Box Office thread? We're supposed to discuss Easter side dish recipes?

 

[WorldExplorer]

I think it goes even further than that, it’s struggling beyond all expectations.

I went from a $400 million prediction, to $300 million, to now wondering if it’s going to even reach $200 million.

We all know it underperformed but the extent is still interesting.

It's doing badly enough that it's on its way to becoming one of those movies that people regularly bring up as a benchmark for losing money. Right now, unadjusted for inflation (which would make it worse), it's failing to hit the box office of notorious big budget flops like The Lone Ranger and John Carter, as well as more recent disasters like Indiana Jones 5, The Flash, Joker 2, and The Marvels.

It's only the messy world of exactly how big the budgets were (plus marketing) that's keeping it up in their air which of them was a bigger disaster.

It's also barely clawing its way to meet Mirror, Mirror, and getting the crap beaten out of it by Snow White and the Huntsman.

 

[LittleBuford]

Sorry for the confusion, but when I posted the estimate below back on March 23rd, I was not predicting it would make less than $100 Million domestically. My worst case scenario three weeks ago was a $150 Million domestic and $150 Million overseas box office, for a box office total of $300 Million globally.

I think you saw my "$90 Domestic" total, and forgot that was Disney's profit from 60% of the domestic box office.
$150 Million Domestic Box Office, with Disney getting 60% of the take, nets $90 Million in profit for Burbank.

That’s entirely fair. I am happy to accept my mistake and apologise for misrepresenting your position.

Although the tone towards me and the data I offer could be a tad kinder, I do admit.

I try to be kind but don’t always succeed. By my assessment, you are frequently not a straight shooter, and I find that intensely frustrating, but on this occasion, I was wrong to call you out.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

That’s because people keep going to Disney parks and movies.

That’s what free market means. You can’t rush it no matter how much you would like to.

Disney enjoys a much longer fuse than 99.9% of companies…

That’s why the “people have been saying this for years…” comments that some like to tuck themselves in at night with to feel good are frankly kinda silly.

But it still burns

For instance…this management should have gone 10 years ago…because for a content company you have to refresh the waters and 10 years on the job is PLENTY…

But since it’s Disney…6-8 years ago could have been understandable/justified

The last 5 has been a full disaster…but since it’s Disney…here we sit after losing in overtime

 

[TP2000]

He’s @TP2000. He’s going to write in a “sensationalist[ic]” way. That’s how he writes. That’s also what makes his posts fun to read. He has some of the most distinct and engaging writing on the site.

He does this with every Disney movie. He tracks their success and their failure in this thread. Just like the title of the thread says. In an attempt to present the information in a way that doesn’t read like an accountant, he spices them up with analysis and style.

Thank you for getting it, that's very kind!

If you are ever in the St. George Metroplex (not actually a thing), please let me know and I can give you a Backstage Magic Tour of the TP2000 Global Command Center, and introduce you to Mr. Johnson and the boys.

And if you're there on a Thursday, that's when we replace any burned out blinky lights before the weekend box office comes in. We let the tour guests replace one or two bulbs with us, and it's a real highlight.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

and getting the crap beaten out of it by Snow White and the Huntsman.

…wait a minute…didn’t that have Thor and Charlize?

Much better southern hemisphere eye candy in that one

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Thank you for getting it, that's very kind!

If you are ever in the St. George Metroplex (not actually a thing), please let me know and I can give you a Backstage Magic Tour of the TP2000 Global Command Center.

And if you're there on a Thursday, that's when we replace any burned out blinky lights before the weekend box office comes in. We let the tour guests replace one or two bulbs with us, and it's a real highlight.

TP2GCC

is now totally a thing

We can monitor and direct the activities of The RAGE Network from there

 

[Disstevefan1]

They’d have to change it so drastically to be accepted today.

Exactly. In this case, in my opinion, keeping the name but drastically changing the story, in the case of SotS, would stand a better chance of being accepted, and Splash could have just been tweaked.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Folks going to Disney parks and movies isn’t the same as apologizing for Disney.

Apologies have no economic value. If I go to Disney and enjoy myself and someone else goes and hates themself for it, the financial consequences to Disney are the same.

I agree and that is why I don’t know why folks are apologizing for Disney.

Disney will do what Disney will do, apologizes or not.

 

[LittleBuford]

I agree and that is why I don’t know why folks are apologizing for Disney.

What do you mean exactly by "apologizing for Disney"? Can you provide some examples from the movie threads?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

What do you mean exactly by "apologizing for Disney"? Can you provide some examples from the movie threads?

Like 50% of the comments on this and most movie discussions

Continually trying to bury the leads…

Which are the choices they make for films are entirely out of whack and they are actively making bad business decisions with them in many cases.

And when something makes no money…it’s a fail. All this nonsense about “sometimes it’s not about the money…” and “everything makes money on Disney + (declining subs)” is just fans trying to self soothe themselves with utter CRAP

Am I being too nuanced?

 

[TP2000]

By my assessment, you are frequently not a straight shooter, and I find that intensely frustrating...

For those keeping score at home, I already came up with several good responses to that line that would have been a huge hit at a Silver Lake brunch table today, but are inappropriate for this thread.

 

[TP2000]

It's doing badly enough that it's on its way to becoming one of those movies that people regularly bring up as a benchmark for losing money. Right now, unadjusted for inflation (which would make it worse), it's failing to hit the box office of notorious big budget flops like The Lone Ranger and John Carter, as well as more recent disasters like Indiana Jones 5, The Flash, Joker 2, and The Marvels.

That's an interesting point. As we've seen in just the past dozen posts or so, Snow White and its continually lowering box office expectations since late March have not been easy to keep up with for anyone.

This is how your comparison looks adjusted for inflation, as several of those movies are pre-Covid and the elevated inflation of the past 4 years. Using a standard 60/40 Domestic/Overseas box office take for Burbank, of course.

Snow White: Production $270, Marketing $100, $49 Domestic, $40 Overseas = $281 Million Loss (and shrinking very slowly)
The Marvels: Production $280, Marketing $100, $52 Domestic, $48 Overseas = $280 Million Loss
Indy 5: Production $310, Marketing $150, $108 Domestic, $86 Overseas = $266 Million Loss
Lone Ranger: Production $313, Marketing $150, $74 Domestic, $95 Overseas = $294 Million Loss
John Carter: Production $375, Marketing $150, $62 Domestic, $119 Overseas = $344 Million Loss

So Snow White is heading for a historical bomb status equal to The Marvels, but not quite as "good" as Indy 5's huge loss in that terrible, no good year of 2023. And at least.... at least.... Snow White isn't as horrific as John Carter.