Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Vegas Disney Fan]

It’s neat that we’ve decided government repression of speech is no biggie. Good thing history never happens and nothing ever really changes.

Government repression, a company voluntarily adjusting to a changing market, or a combination of both? It would be a fantastic discussion but is unfortunately something we aren’t allowed to discuss here and as Irish mentioned something that would get immediately deleted.

 

[Casper Gutman]

Government repression, a company voluntarily adjusting to a changing market, or a combination of both? It would be a fantastic discussion but is unfortunately something we aren’t allowed to discuss here and as Irish mentioned something that would get immediately deleted.

https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/fcc-open-probe-into-nbc-parent-comcast-over-promotion-dei-programs-2025-02-12/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/style/2025/02/13/disney-content-warnings-dei-dumbo-peter-pan/

Removing the warning on Dumbo is particularly egregious.

All of this is incredibly relevant to any discussion of the product Disney and other major studios will be releasing for the forseeable future and the way that that product will be received at the box office. This is THE story in the entertainment industry right now.

 

[Disney Irish]

https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/fcc-open-probe-into-nbc-parent-comcast-over-promotion-dei-programs-2025-02-12/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/style/2025/02/13/disney-content-warnings-dei-dumbo-peter-pan/

Removing the warning on Dumbo is particularly egregious.

All of this is incredibly relevant to any discussion of the product Disney and other major studios will be releasing for the forseeable future and the way that that product will be received at the box office. This is THE story in the entertainment industry right now.

Ok, so since you want to have this discussion. What do you expect any of us here to do? Please tell us what the dozen or so people on this forum are going to do to effect the nationwide change you want to see?

 

[Casper Gutman]

Ok, so since you want to have this discussion. What do you expect any of us here to do? Please tell us what the dozen or so people on this forum are going to do to effect the nationwide change you want to see?

The same thing we do about everything else here - talk about it when it is relevant and use it to contextualize the things we are seeing in the entertainment industry.

There is a massive, widespread effort in this country (and, indeed, in the world) to desperately pretend the things that are happening aren’t happening, to hand wave them away, downplay them, flat out ignore them. The sheer magnitude of events has overwhelmed people. Even just getting folks to acknowledge reality, to say that something very impactful is happening, something that can’t be reversed easily, makes a little bit of a difference.

 

[Disney Irish]

The same thing we do about everything else here - talk about it when it is relevant and use it to contextualize the things we are seeing in the entertainment industry.

There is a massive, widespread effort in this country (and, indeed, in the world) to desperately pretend the things that are happening aren’t happening, to hand wave them away, downplay them, flat out ignore them. The sheer magnitude of events has overwhelmed people. Even just getting folks to acknowledge reality, to say that something very impactful is happening, something that can’t be reversed easily, makes a little bit of a difference.

But as mentioned we're on a Disney Fan forum, one that has rules. And those rules include not talking about politics, and this topic gets deep into politics, one that is going to end up getting the whole conversation deleted. So again I don't know what you expect here.

What I suggest is maybe instead of clogging up this thread which is supposed to be used to talk about the box office and its numbers, you create a separate thread to discuss this. And if people want to follow you there to discuss it in more detail then they can do so and those that don't can avoid it. But lets not get another thread purged because you want to talk about something that is off limits.

 

[Casper Gutman]

But as mentioned we're on a Disney Fan forum, one that has rules. And those rules include not talking about politics, and this topic gets deep into politics, one that is going to end up getting the whole conversation deleted. So again I don't know what you expect here.

What I suggest is maybe instead of clogging up this thread which is supposed to be used to talk about the box office and its numbers, you create a separate thread to discuss this. And if people want to follow you there to discuss it in more detail then they can do so and those that don't can avoid it. But lets not get another thread purged because you want to talk about something that is off limits.

This will be relevant to every single film this thread discusses for many years.

Saying “this is bad and significant and needs to be kept in mind as we move forward but we can’t discuss it in depth here” is different from “it’s generally fine” or “it’s not happening,” the former of which seems to be your position.

 

[Disney Irish]

This will be relevant to every single film this thread discusses for many years.

Saying “this is bad and significant and needs to be kept in mind as we move forward but we can’t discuss it in depth here” is different from “it’s generally fine” or “it’s not happening,” the former of which seems to be your position.

As I mentioned before I'm not going to go down the rabbit hole with you on this one. I believe I've made my position of the topic fairly clear, if you want further clarity you can seek it elsewhere. I'm not going to wade deep into this topic as it'll only bring the ire of the Mods, something I think we should best avoid.

Again I suggest creating a separate thread for this, its for the best if you want to go further into it. As I think its too broad of a topic, and far too political, to have in this thread for a topic that has lots and lot of nuance and opinions. Many opinions that will end up being heated, which is the reason why its off-limits.

 

[Disney Irish]

Back on the actual topic of the box office, Thursday Night Preview numbers for Captain America: Brave New World have been solidified -

At $12M that puts it I believe in the middle of the pack of the post-End Game movies, but also ahead of several pre-End Game movies like Captain America: Winter Soldier which this one is going to be often compared to.

So we'll see what the numbers are by Sunday, but still looks to be a good opening overall.

 

[doctornick]

It’s neat that we’ve decided government repression of speech is no biggie. Good thing history never happens and nothing ever really changes.

I think the efforts by Disney have more to do with concerns over box office and having more widespread appeal (or conversely less things they could be criticized for) than trying to appeal to the current government. There was already a movement within the company to be less outspoken with DEI efforts well before Trump was elected.

 

[Agent H]

I think the efforts by Disney have more to do with concerns over box office and having more widespread appeal (or conversely less things they could be criticized for) than trying to appeal to the current government. There was already a movement within the company to be less outspoken with DEI efforts well before Trump was elected.

Doesn’t make it a good thing

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

Back on the actual topic of the box office, Thursday Night Preview numbers for Captain America: Brave New World have been solidified -

View attachment 844421

At $12M that puts it I believe in the middle of the pack of the post-End Game movies, but also ahead of several pre-End Game movies like Captain America: Winter Soldier which this one is going to be often compared to.

So we'll see what the numbers are by Sunday, but still looks to be a good opening overall.

The last forecast I saw said $85-90 million this week, that would put it on track for $500-700 million worldwide, I don't think anyone at Disney would be disappointed with that result.

 

[Disstevefan1]

The last forecast I saw said $85-90 million this week, that would put it on track for $500-700 million worldwide, I don't think anyone at Disney would be disappointed with that result.

Do we believe IMDB?:
Look Here
"A recent THR report mentioned that the movie's production budget was “around $180 million, less than many other Marvel movies.” While this might well have been accurate back when filming commenced, The Hot Mic's Jeff Sneider has heard that extensive reshoots and marketing costs may have pushed the film's price tag closer to the $300 million mark."

 

[Casper Gutman]

I think the efforts by Disney have more to do with concerns over box office and having more widespread appeal (or conversely less things they could be criticized for) than trying to appeal to the current government. There was already a movement within the company to be less outspoken with DEI efforts well before Trump was elected.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/12/business/media/fcc-comcast-nbc-dei-discrimination.html

 

[Disney Irish]

Do we believe IMDB?:
Look Here
"A recent THR report mentioned that the movie's production budget was “around $180 million, less than many other Marvel movies.” While this might well have been accurate back when filming commenced, The Hot Mic's Jeff Sneider has heard that extensive reshoots and marketing costs may have pushed the film's price tag closer to the $300 million mark."

Its from an unverified source, meaning they could have just made it up. Because really who is Jeff Sneider, they have had no interaction with Disney or Marvel as far as I'm aware. So how would they have any inside knowledge of the production they weren't involved with let alone its budget?

 

[Disney Irish]

The last forecast I saw said $85-90 million this week, that would put it on track for $500-700 million worldwide, I don't think anyone at Disney would be disappointed with that result.

4 day is $90-110M for the holiday weekend. Good opening if it can do it and great opening if it can surpass it.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

Do we believe IMDB?:
Look Here
"A recent THR report mentioned that the movie's production budget was “around $180 million, less than many other Marvel movies.” While this might well have been accurate back when filming commenced, The Hot Mic's Jeff Sneider has heard that extensive reshoots and marketing costs may have pushed the film's price tag closer to the $300 million mark."

With the standard 50% marketing expectation a combined budget of $300m wouldn’t be out of reason, that would place the filming budget around $200 million, or about $20m additional for reshoots, that’s not unrealistic. The 2.5x filming budget multiplayer would still place break even around $500m, early indications would still place it in break even to a couple hundred million in profit territory. (Assuming the opening week predictions are accurate and it has normal MCU legs).

Lots of forecasts and expectations in that model but I think with most of the delayed movies (whether to the strikes, reshoots, reworks, or any other rumored factors) over the last couple years Disney will settle for box offices that don’t lose a boatload of money.

If I’m Iger and my forecasters say they expect Snow White to lose a couple hundred million, Cap 4 and Thundercats should make a few bucks, Stitch and F4 should make a couple hundred million each, and Avatar should make half a billion in profit I’m cool with that year. (I know I forgot a couple movies but all in all if Cap4 breaks even or makes money it sets up for a pretty good 2025 for Disney).

 

[Disstevefan1]

With the standard 50% marketing expectation a combined budget of $300m wouldn’t be out of reason, that would place the filming budget around $200 million, or about $20m additional for reshoots, that’s not unrealistic. The 2.5x filming budget multiplayer would still place break even around $500m, early indications would still place it in break even to a couple hundred million in profit territory. (Assuming the opening week predictions are accurate and it has normal MCU legs).

Lots of forecasts and expectations in that model but I think with most of the delayed movies (whether to the strikes, reshoots, reworks, or any other rumored factors) over the last couple years Disney will settle for box offices that don’t lose money.

At 500M, there should be no reason this movie cant break even or make money.
Disney works the deals to keep the movies in the theaters as long as possible.
Break even or making some money is good enough for me.

 

[Disney Analyst]

UPDATED, Friday midday: It’s Valentine’s Day and even though there aren’t any female skewing movies on the marquee such as Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy, it’s still bound to be a big moviegoing day even though we have the dude-skewing Captain America: Brave New World. The Anthony Mackie movie is expected to do around $39M today, which includes last night’s $12M, on its way to a 4-day of $90M+. Three-day is around $82M-$84M at 4,105. Day one for Captain America: Brave New World is higher than the first day/previews of Captain America: Winter Soldier which came in at $36.9M.

Disney Calls ‘Captain America: Brave New World’ 4-Day At $100M Opening – Box Office Update

'Captain America: Brave New World' Will Lead 4-day Presidents Box Office with a shot at $100M+ after $40M+ Friday/previews.

deadline.com

PREVIOUS EXCLUSIVE: Neither Los Angeles rain nor Northeast snow are keeping audiences away from cinemas Thursday night as Disney/Marvel Studios’ Captain America: Brave New World, a continuation of both Disney+ series The Falcon and the Winter Soldier and 2008’s The Incredible Hulk, is eyeing $12 million after previews that began at 2 p.m. today.

Where does that stack up to other MCU titles? Well, it’s higher than 2014’s Captain America: Winter Soldier, which collected $10.2M in previews on its way to a $95M opening.

It’s also under the $17.5M previews of the last MCU title over Presidents’ Day weekend, 2023’s Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, which made its way to a $106.1M three-day total and $120.3M 4-day. Brave New World isn’t expected to traverse to Quantumania levels, with tracking pegging a $80M 3-day and $94M 4-day. Brave New World was always a grounded action film, nothing in the multiverse sense of the word, selling itself entire on Red Hulk (how appropriate for Valentine’s Day).

Bad news: Rotten Tomatoes critics got antsy while watching the Anthony Mackie movie, giving it a 52% critics score. Better news: Audiences on Thursday night gave it a tolerable 79% on RT. Early PostTrak from fans was a mixed bag at 3 stars, with kids under 12 loving the movie at 4 1/2 stars (62% boys). Audience make-up was 71% males, 29% female. Diversity demos were 32% Caucasian, 28% Hispanic and Latino, 19% Black and 15% Asian. Best scores came from women over 25 (71% grade), who were the second-biggest audience last night at 21% behind men over 25 at 56% who gave the Mackie movie a 64% grade.

Social media analytics corp RelishMix reports the social media universe for the Julius Onah-directed movie stands at just under 600 million, which is an average figure for superhero movies; Brave New World is running 21% below genre norms across TikTok, Facebook, X, YouTube and Instagram combined. Ya wanna know what the social media reach was for Deadpool & Wolverine before opening? Try 1.15 billion followers. Even Thor: Love & Thunder was at a high 963M-plus before that pic projected onto the screen to a massive $144.1M three-day opening in July 2022.

Mostly all of the cast on this Captain America are social and activated, except for non-social Harrison Ford. Mackie counted 5.4M fans across all platforms before opening, Liv Tyler stood at 7.2M, while Giancarlo Esposito was at 4M.

As far as chatter online, RelishMix says it’s mixed on Brave New World. Some fans are excited to see Mackie picking up the shield from Chris Evans, and who are destined to go because of Red Hulk. But “negative-leaning chatter on Captain America: Brave New World hears trembles from fans who feel Marvel has lost its way. Comments include, ‘I remember a time when I used to get hyped for a Marvel film. I saw this poster (and trailer) and felt nothing.’ and ‘I want the film to do well, but I can’t shake the feeling that this movie is just being sent out there to die. Prove me wrong, Disney.’ The jumps in tone are turning some off, sharing, ‘It’s nuts how this movie is simultaneously playing up the ‘grizzled espionage’ angle from Winter Soldier, but is also like CLAP FOR RED HULK,’ while others are pessimistically curious in the character of Sabra, given the character’s ties to Israel in the comics with the current geopolitical landscape in the Middle East.”

 

[Agent H]

UPDATED, Friday midday: It’s Valentine’s Day and even though there aren’t any female skewing movies on the marquee such as Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy, it’s still bound to be a big moviegoing day even though we have the dude-skewing Captain America: Brave New World. The Anthony Mackie movie is expected to do around $39M today, which includes last night’s $12M, on its way to a 4-day of $90M+. Three-day is around $82M-$84M at 4,105. Day one for Captain America: Brave New World is higher than the first day/previews of Captain America: Winter Soldier which came in at $36.9M.

Disney Calls ‘Captain America: Brave New World’ 4-Day At $100M Opening – Box Office Update

'Captain America: Brave New World' Will Lead 4-day Presidents Box Office with a shot at $100M+ after $40M+ Friday/previews.

deadline.com

Well there is the movie with the kid from Indiana Jones

 

[LittleBuford]

But as mentioned we're on a Disney Fan forum, one that has rules. And those rules include not talking about politics, and this topic gets deep into politics, one that is going to end up getting the whole conversation deleted. So again I don't know what you expect here.

What I suggest is maybe instead of clogging up this thread which is supposed to be used to talk about the box office and its numbers, you create a separate thread to discuss this. And if people want to follow you there to discuss it in more detail then they can do so and those that don't can avoid it. But lets not get another thread purged because you want to talk about something that is off limits.

But you’re also talking about it. You’re just framing it differently from @Casper Gutman (I happen to agree with his framing).