News Disney Lakeshore Lodge (Project 89 - Development near Fort Wilderness)

[Tha Realest]

They need a new name for the resurrected project. Reflections sounds like a rehab center to me.

Wildernessliving by Cotino

 

[Fido Chuckwagon]

Maybe instead of DVC it’ll be a condo expansion of Golden Oak with Condos starting at 3 million and $40,000 a year in fees.

 

[JoeCamel]

Maybe instead of DVC it’ll be a condo expansion of Golden Oak with Condos starting at 3 million and $40,000 a year in fees.

They better come with Cinderella tucking me in bed each night.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Who wants this again?

TWDC of course.

 

[Fox&Hound]

Yes… and I’ve soured on some of their decision making around it (Island Poly Tower) considerably. Including thinking it’s completely non sensical for anyone to ever buy it direct.

But people are lining up in droves none the less. Those same crowds panic bought and drove the resale market into insane pricing, further justifying it, somehow.

The demand is such that either they partially need it by 2027 when Riviera is definitely gone or really need it by 2028, when Poly is probably selling out again. Either way there seems to be ridiculous demand and DVC begets constantly adding supply to sell.

I wonder what happens in 50 years when those people who bought into DVC have either sold or sadly passed away. Will people continue to buy up DVC under current Disney (price gouging, Lightning Lane models, subpar development, $50 cupcakes). Like do they just turn them into regular hotels?

 

[nickys]

I wonder what happens in 50 years when those people who bought into DVC have either sold or sadly passed away. Will people continue to buy up DVC under current Disney (price gouging, Lightning Lane models, subpar development, $50 cupcakes). Like do they just turn them into regular hotels?

The first wave of contracts expire in 2042. We’ll see what they do then.

 

[BrianLo]

I wonder what happens in 50 years when those people who bought into DVC have either sold or sadly passed away. Will people continue to buy up DVC under current Disney (price gouging, Lightning Lane models, subpar development, $50 cupcakes). Like do they just turn them into regular hotels?

That shouldn’t really matter. Something like 90+% of direct are new members. There will be a line up of new members even if every single owner walks at 2042. Especially for whatever becomes of Boardwalk and BeachClub. Vero and Hilton Head will be sold and OKW will be largely pushed to 2057. Boulder Ridge is fairly small.

Plus all that existing inventory automatically exits the resale market, which is a good thing for the Developer.

 

[JoeCamel]

That shouldn’t really matter. Something like 90+% of direct are new members. There will be a line up of new members even if every single owner walks at 2042. Especially for whatever becomes of Boardwalk and BeachClub. Vero and Hilton Head will be sold and OKW will be largely pushed to 2057. Boulder Ridge is fairly small.

Plus all that existing inventory automatically exits the resale market, which is a good thing for the Developer.

Wild crystal ball you have there, is it what was is is what is going to be or do you allow for global changes? 20 year future predictions are usually wrong

 

[castlecake2.0]

That shouldn’t really matter. Something like 90+% of direct are new members. There will be a line up of new members even if every single owner walks at 2042. Especially for whatever becomes of Boardwalk and BeachClub. Vero and Hilton Head will be sold and OKW will be largely pushed to 2057. Boulder Ridge is fairly small.

Plus all that existing inventory automatically exits the resale market, which is a good thing for the Developer.

Did vero and Hilton sell that poorly? They always seem to be fully booked all the time

 

[DisneyHead123]

I wonder what happens in 50 years when those people who bought into DVC have either sold or sadly passed away. Will people continue to buy up DVC under current Disney (price gouging, Lightning Lane models, subpar development, $50 cupcakes). Like do they just turn them into regular hotels?

I’ve said before, my money is on them building DVCs in new locations, copying the Great Wolf Lodge model in terms of offerings. For one thing - Disney seems to love DVC so I’m guessing it must be financially a great deal for them - but obviously the Orlando market will get tapped out. Probably sooner rather than later at the rate they’re building. For another, Disney Parks has sort of experimented with ways to geographically move their offerings across the country in some form over the years. Now they basically have a blueprint of a successful model handed to them. To me the logic points strongly in one direction here.

 

[SteveAZee]

That shouldn’t really matter. Something like 90+% of direct are new members. There will be a line up of new members even if every single owner walks at 2042. Especially for whatever becomes of Boardwalk and BeachClub. Vero and Hilton Head will be sold and OKW will be largely pushed to 2057. Boulder Ridge is fairly small.

Plus all that existing inventory automatically exits the resale market, which is a good thing for the Developer.

What do you mean about OKW being pushed to 2057? Do you think they'll try extending the 2042's again?

 

[BrianLo]

Did vero and Hilton sell that poorly? They always seem to be fully booked all the time

I don’t think so in the early days. The trouble is they wouldn’t be able to sell them now. Vero in particular would sell worse than the Cabins. Its maintenance has gotten out of control.

 

[BrianLo]

Wild crystal ball you have there, is it what was is is what is going to be or do you allow for global changes? 20 year future predictions are usually wrong

Ok well I cannot see the future. But they’ve managed to line up unending and increasing number of direct purchasers over the last 32 years so something would have to shift to take it off the rails in the next 18. Your guess is as good as mine.

For the record I think it’s stupid, but I’m not in denial that we’re about to see a huge amount of poly being sold. Don’t mistake my predictions as championing/cheerleading.

 

[BrianLo]

What do you mean about OKW being pushed to 2057? Do you think they'll try extending the 2042's again?

Every time they acquire/ROFR a 2042 in resale or estate, it is being resold as a 2057 contract by disney directly.

Disney just had a big sale on old key west this spring and sold through their inventory quite quickly (well over 100k points). I suspect this will occur again as inventory rebuilds over the years and eventually they’ll get a relatively small pool of contracts that owners let expire in 2042 that were not extended or at some point turned around by Disney.

Basically, how many contracts will be left that Disney has never ROFR’d and the owners never originally extended is the remainder in 2042.

 

[SteveAZee]

Every time they acquire/ROFR a 2042 in resale or estate, it is being resold as a 2057 contract by disney directly.

Disney just had a big sale on old key west this spring and sold through their inventory quite quickly (well over 100k points). I suspect this will occur again as inventory rebuilds over the years and eventually they’ll get a relatively small pool of contracts that owners let expire in 2042 that were not extended or at some point turned around by Disney.

Basically, how many contracts will be left that Disney has never ROFR’d and the owners never originally extended is the remainder in 2042.

Hmm... while I get what you're saying, I think most holders (like me) of 2042's will let things expire rather than try to sell and get ROFL'ed, letting Disney recover that ownership. I suspect Disney will need to deal with falling off that cliff along with the other 2042ers. I'd like to be wrong and see them provide incentives to extend... but it feels unlikely.

 

[nickys]

Hmm... while I get what you're saying, I think most holders (like me) of 2042's will let things expire rather than try to sell and get ROFL'ed, letting Disney recover that ownership. I suspect Disney will need to deal with falling off that cliff along with the other 2042ers. I'd like to be wrong and see them provide incentives to extend... but it feels unlikely.

They won’t care, there’s no falling off a cliff here. They’ll simply resell the expired contracts as a 2057 contract. Win-win for them.

 

[Andrew C]

Every time I see this thread title...my mind immediately goes to Mulan...

 

[SteveAZee]

They won’t care, there’s no falling off a cliff here. They’ll simply resell the expired contracts as a 2057 contract. Win-win for them.

I guess my thinking is that there will be a lot of points that they'll need to resell across the resort in 2042 and Disney will need to carry the costs of the annuals dues in the meantime... especially with OKW (large # of points, lots of property and buildings to maintain, staff, etc). You may know the numbers of this better than I do, I'm just speculating.

 

[John park hopper]

I wonder what happens in 50 years when those people who bought into DVC have either sold or sadly passed away. Will people continue to buy up DVC under current Disney (price gouging, Lightning Lane models, subpar development, $50 cupcakes). Like do they just turn them into regular hotels?

The way they are built in. 50 yrs they will be falling down

 

[nickys]

I guess my thinking is that there will be a lot of points that they'll need to resell across the resort in 2042 and Disney will need to carry the costs of the annuals dues in the meantime... especially with OKW (large # of points, lots of property and buildings to maintain, staff, etc). You may know the numbers of this better than I do, I'm just speculating.

For OKW you’re correct. Although no one knows how many points there will be expiring in 2042. But since there will be just 15 years to go they could do a fire sale.

For the other resorts they’d be either rebuilding or doing a full refurb. They’ll just shutter the resorts until they’re ready.