Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Chi84]

No-one as far as I can tell. I think all of us who’ve watched it have said we enjoyed it. Perhaps he has some of us on ignore and is just (incorrectly) inferring things from others’ responses?

I look forward to seeing it; it sounds like a fun movie with a worthwhile message.

 

[TP2000]

Box Office facts and data is out for this weekend. It's rough for Disney. Again.

Haunted Mansion couldn't hit it's lowest and triple-downgraded target of only $25 Million. It got only $24.2 Million since Wednesday night previews began.

To add insult to injury, the little indie film with the $14 Million budget that Disney refused to release and that all the wrong sorts of people are going to see just passed Elemental (and Mission: Impossible and other non-Disney tentpoles) at the domestic box office, and it seems as though it's going to beat Indy 5 at the domestic box office by next weekend.

How on earth did this even happen like this?

Weekend projections: Barbie has a spectacular hold to earn $93 million on second weekend - The Numbers

Barbie will earn a spectacular $93 million in its second weekend in theaters, according to Warner Bros.’ weekend projection. If that number holds, it

www.the-numbers.com

 

[TP2000]

Spoiler ahead if you care:

One of my favorite unintended (or perhaps very much intended) messages of the movie is when angry, self-righteous Sasha magically transforms into a much happier version of herself and smiles, sings, bonds with her mother, and has a proactive view on life - once she puts on make-up, a cute dress, and does her hair.

Take note women of the world! Life is better when you wear makeup and a snappy little dress!

#barbielifelessons

I loved that character arc for the teenage girl Sasha.

When she sat there at her lunch table being so dour and mean, dressed in black, spitting out her pre-approved talking points about "patriarchy" and "capitalism" she was so typically depressing. That she came around to realize her mom is fabulous and that Barbie has good life lessons to take with her into adulthood was wonderful. Just as wonderful is when Sasha tried to be a little prettier and lighten up her color palette.

Cheer up Sasha, things ain't as bad as you've been taught.

 

[TP2000]

The entire movie is an incredibly clever wink - which is why it works. Let’s just say if the Amy Schumer Barbie version happened, we wouldn’t be talking about a $1B+ box office.

Agreed. It succeeds on so many levels, and has real depth and meaning. But also does a great job of being an upbeat, happy, bouncy summer movie with fun music and some very funny lines. America wants that in its summer fare, obviously.

Looking at the huge overseas box office for Barbie, that's not just an American thing either.

The Little Mermaid could only wish for the overseas box office that Barbie has pulled in the past 10 days.

Mermaid Overseas Box Office, 66 Days = $264 Million
Barbie Overseas Box Office, 10 Days = $423 Million

 

[Ghost93]

Box Office facts and data is out for this weekend. It's rough for Disney. Again.

Haunted Mansion couldn't hit it's lowest and triple-downgraded target of only $25 Million. It got only $24.2 Million since Wednesday night previews began.

To add insult to injury, the little indie film with the $14 Million budget that Disney refused to release and that all the wrong sorts of people are going to see just passed Elemental (and Mission: Impossible and other non-Disney tentpoles) at the domestic box office, and it seems as though it's going to beat Indy 5 at the domestic box office by next weekend.

How on earth did this even happen like this?

View attachment 734295

Weekend projections: Barbie has a spectacular hold to earn $93 million on second weekend - The Numbers

Barbie will earn a spectacular $93 million in its second weekend in theaters, according to Warner Bros.’ weekend projection. If that number holds, it

www.the-numbers.com

The Haunted Mansion isn't a perfect film, but it's good enough family film that's perfect for Halloween. Unfortunately, it was released in July — the wrong season for such a film. The actors can't promote the film due to the strikes, and Barbenheimer is sucking up all of the online attention.

This should have been an October release. I believe Disney was hoping to release it on Disney Plus in October and hope it would catch on then. Unfortunately, since all of the headlines are about how Haunted Mansion is "a flop" people may not be interested in checking it out when it comes to Disney Plus in October. I said this earlier, but I believe a lot of what drives people to watch a movie nowadays is a "fear of missing out." If a movie is deemed a flop, fewer people will feel the need to watch it, because none of their friends are and no one will be talking about it.

 

[BrianLo]

Here's an updated Box Office Studio flop talley. Movies that couldn't even recover a ~1.5x multiplier on their budgets. Meant for anything classified as non-indie.

Knowing 250% (2.5x) reliably breaks even and 200% (2.0x+) puts us into a weird post theatrical argumentative state. Your Rise of the Beasts/Fast X (2.1x) performers or your Little Mermaids (2.2x). This is the real bottom of the barrel of the year.

1) The Covenant - MGM - (38%)
2) Renfield - Universal - (41%)
3) Ruby Gillman - Universal/Dreamworks - (50%)
4) Shazam 2 - WB - (107%)
5) Indiana Jones 5 - Dis/Lucas (120%)**
6) The Flash - WB - (121%)
7) Magic Mike: Last Dance - WB (126%)
8) 65 - Sony - (134%)
9) Dungeons and Dragons - Paramount - (138%)
10) Mission Impossible 7 - Paramount - (153%)**

**Still in theatres


Someone feel free to let me know if I've forgotten something obvious. I hadn't originally highlighted the 1.50-1.9x movies because I was just making a top 10 list originally. I've added MI:7 as a top end entrant because it is sputtering out faster than I thought it would last week and particularly carries a hefty budget that is hard to overcome with the back end.

I'm going to give movies a few weeks before adding them. It seems a bit disingenuous to list something 3 days into release, as much as I'm itching to carve out the space for Blue Beetle. We've seen a few movies already prematurely declared DOA that have legged out better than expected. Note Haunted Mansion is on watch.

 

[LittleBuford]

Here's an updated Box Office Studio flop talley. Movies that couldn't even recover a ~1.5x multiplier on their budgets. Meant for anything classified as non-indie.

Knowing 250% (2.5x) reliably breaks even and 200% (2.0x+) puts us into a weird post theatrical argumentative state. Your Rise of the Beasts/Fast X (2x) performers or your Little Mermaids (2.2x). This is the real bottom of the barrel of the year.

1) The Covenant - MGM - (38%)
2) Renfield - Universal - (41%)
3) Ruby Gillman - Universal/Dreamworks - (50%)
4) Shazam 2 - WB - (107%)
5) Indiana Jones 5 - Dis/Lucas (120%)**
6) The Flash - WB - (121%)
7) Magic Mike: Last Dance - WB (126%)
8) 65 - Sony - (134%)
9) Dungeons and Dragons - Paramount - (138%)
10) Mission Impossible 7 - Paramount - (153%)**

**Still in theatres


Someone feel free to let me know if I've forgotten something obvious. I hadn't originally highlighted the 1.50-1.9x movies because I was just making a top 10 list originally. I've added MI:7 as a top end entrant because it is sputtering out faster than I thought it would last week and particularly carries a hefty budget that is hard to overcome with the back end.

I'm going to give movies a few weeks before adding them. It seems a bit disingenuous to list something 3 days into release, as much as I'm itching to carve out the space for Blue Beetle. We've seen a few movies already prematurely declared DOA that have legged out better than expected. Note Haunted Mansion is on watch.

That can’t be right! Shouldn’t this list be full of nothing but Disney?!

 

[BrianLo]

That can’t be right! Shouldn’t this list be full of nothing but Disney?!

Several Disney movies have legged out better than expected. A disappointment list (2.0-2.5x) is rife with Disney. Though again many of major expensive studio tentpoles also occupy that list.

It's still an imperfect measure though. Even if Fast X, Rise of the Beasts and Mermaid seem to be in a little cohort, they are wildly distanced by their box office splits.

If I really had to draw a hard line in the sand it would be around Fast X. While a 2.1x performer, its split for International / Domestic (80% in favour of international) is not generally helping its case. International box office the studio keeps far less of its receipts than domestic. Fast X is more like a 1.95x performer. Rise 2.1x and Mermaid 2.35x.

I'm not going to get too into the weeds though, let's just stick on the super clear low end performers. Stuff well under 2x.

 

[LittleBuford]

Several Disney movies have legged out better than expected. A disappointment list (2.0-2.5x) is rife with Disney. Though again many of major expensive studio tentpoles also occupy that list.

It's still an imperfect measure though. Even if Fast X, Rise of the Beasts and Mermaid seem to be in a little cohort, they are wildly distanced by their box office splits.

If I really had to draw a hard line in the sand it would be around Fast X. While a 2.1x performer, its split for International / Domestic (80% in favour of international) is not generally not helping. International box office the studio keeps far less of its receipts than domestic. Fast X is more like a 1.9x performer. Rise 2.1x and Mermaid 2.35x.

I'm not going to get too into the weeds though, let's just stick on the super clear low end performers. Stuff well under 2x.

I was jokily alluding to the fact that your list rather undermines the picture of abject failure that some here are attempting to paint. I should have added a winking emoji to make that clear.

 

[BrianLo]

I was jokily alluding to the fact that your list rather undermines the picture of abject failure that some here are attempting to paint. I should have added a winking emoji to make that clear.

Oh yes, and I'm not so secretly winking back about the entire reason I needed to create it in the first place. If we are going to talk about all the studios, might as well be honest about the landscape. Not merely picking and choosing Universal's / WB's successes to compare against Disney's disappointments.

 

[TP2000]

I was jokily alluding to the fact that your list rather undermines the picture of abject failure that some here are attempting to paint.

Because losing at least $400 Million at the box office in a single summer isn't abject enough for Disney?

Speaking of abject failures, let's do a box office update on Disney's five summer tentpole films now that all five have been released. We're also heading into the Dog Days of summer, and the kids will be heading back to school in a month. Sell those tickets while you still can.

As of July 30th, The Walt Disney Company via its four flagship studios (Walt Disney, Pixar, Lucas, Marvel) has lost $345 Million and counting.

Haunted Mansion is not included yet in that loss tally, but unless it somehow booms overseas, it will lose at least $50 Million, more likely closer to $100 Million on top of that $345 Million.

Guardians 3: $250 Production/$100 Marketing with $407 box office take = $57 Million Profit
Little Mermaid: $250 Production/$100* Marketing with $285 box office take = $65 Million Loss
Elemental: $200 Production/$100 Marketing with $187 box office take = $113 Million Loss
Indy 5: $300 Production/$100 Marketing with $176 box office take = $224 Million Loss
Haunted Mansion: $157 Production/$75 Marketing with ??? box office take = ???

*Mermaid had a huge marketing campaign and has had its marketing budget reported widely as costing $140 Million, but we'll pretend they only spent $100 Million instead for Mermaid's global marketing. Because I'd hate to hurt anyone's feelings.

Movie Comparison: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 (2023) vs. The Little Mermaid (2023) vs. Elemental (2023) vs. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (2023) vs. Haunted Mansion (2023)

Domestic box office comparison between Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 (2023) and The Little Mermaid (2023) and Elemental (2023) and Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (2023) and Haunted Mansion (2023)

www.the-numbers.com

 

[LittleBuford]

My thoughts exactly!

 

[BrianLo]

Haunted Mansion: $157 Production/$75 Marketing with ??? box office take = ???

For the future purposes of Haunted Mansion, Louisiana/New Orleans Tax rebates bring the budget to 120 million. Not that the budget wasn't 157, but uniquely Disney got some solid tax/rebate money back for filming in said locations. At least that money is external for the company for once.

Edit: though I would NOT edit the marketing down and keep it locked to the pre rebate ‘budget’ aka 75m for marketing.

 

[TP2000]

But who can forget about Theater Camp? That little indie film from Disney's Searchlight Studio also exists.

So far, it has lost $8.1 Million at the box office. That's assuming they only spent $1 Million on marketing after it's reported $8 Million budget. With a global box office take of $900,000 for Disney.

Let's round that down to only an $8 Million loss so far, which would bring Disney's total summer box office loss to $353 Million.

 

[TalkingHead]

Has anyone read that Mansion was made for D+ and got a theatrical release as a bonus? Seems like I read a comment on Deadline that indicated late July was chosen for the theatrical release so that it would be on D+ for October. Makes sense and would explain the weird timing, especially if they’re prioritizing streaming content over theatrical, but wasn’t sure if there was any truth to that.

 

[TP2000]

Haunted Mansion hasn't opened in several big overseas markets yet, like the UK, Germany or Japan. But the writing seems to be on the wall already for its domestic box office trajectory. The word "flop" is being used widely in today's weekend reporting.

Disney's 'Haunted Mansion' Flops, 'Barbie' Keeps Soaring at Box Office

The box office numbers are in for this weekend, and it looks like 'Barbie' is still the queen bee of the hive.

www.tmz.com

This next coverage seems unfair though. If you are going to go back 20 years to claim this is a big "ride-based" flop, it seems like you should also include the Country Bear Jamboree movie in that tale of terrible box office. Or maybe they aren't counting the Country Bear's as based on a Disney "ride" because it was really a show?

Haunted Mansion Opens as Lowest Disney Ride-Based Movie Since Eddie Murphy Original

Haunted Mansion has been spooked by the might of Barbie and Oppenheimer on its opening weekend.

movieweb.com

 

[BrianLo]

Has anyone read that Mansion was made for D+ and got a theatrical release as a bonus? Seems like I read a comment on Deadline that indicated late July was chosen for the theatrical release so that it would be on D+ for October. Makes sense and would explain the weird timing, especially if they’re prioritizing streaming content over theatrical, but wasn’t sure if there was any truth to that.

This is my strong personal suspicion. It seems to carry a direct to D+ budget. The release date simply doesn’t make sense without the internal logic they want this film on D+ for October and any Box Office is a bonus to their bottom line.

Heck, they should have done the same for Enchanted 2 and Hocus Pocus 2.

They are simply being cagey because they know if the audience sniffs out a quick streaming release it absolutely kills the box office.

 

[Disney Irish]

Has anyone read that Mansion was made for D+ and got a theatrical release as a bonus? Seems like I read a comment on Deadline that indicated late July was chosen for the theatrical release so that it would be on D+ for October. Makes sense and would explain the weird timing, especially if they’re prioritizing streaming content over theatrical, but wasn’t sure if there was any truth to that.

Nope, it was originally scheduled for release in March 2023, then it moved to August 2023 after a release schedule shuffle, before being moved to its eventual release date of July 28, 2023 taking the Marvels release date after the Marvels needed some reshoots.

Disney Sets ‘Haunted Mansion’ Release Date for 2023

The film, starring Rosario Dawson, will bow on March 10, 2023.

www.hollywoodreporter.com

Disney Removes ‘Star Wars’ Spinoff ‘Rogue Squadron’ From Release Calendar, Sets Dates for ‘Snow White,’ ‘Inside Out 2’ and ‘Lion King’ Sequel

Disney has removed “Rogue Squadron,” the new “Star Wars” film from Patty Jenkins, from its release calendar.

variety.com

‘The Marvels’ Zooms To November, ‘Haunted Mansion’ Going In Late July – Release Dates

'The Marvels' Moves To November 2023 Release

deadline.com

It just happens to also be a great date to make it available for D+ by Halloween which is probably why they move it there compared to any other film. But the fact the original release date was in March shows that it wasn't a D+ film to begin with.

 

[Disney Irish]

This is my strong personal suspicion. It seems to carry a direct to D+ budget. The release date simply doesn’t make sense without the internal logic they want this film on D+ for October and any Box Office is a bonus to their bottom line.

Heck, they should have done the same for Enchanted 2 and Hocus Pocus 2.

They are simply being cagey because they know if the audience sniffs out a quick streaming release it absolutely kills the box office.

Its release date was moved twice during the Great Release Date Shuffle of 2022/2023 for Disney.

 

[TP2000]

The Haunted Mansion isn't a perfect film, but it's good enough family film that's perfect for Halloween. Unfortunately, it was released in July — the wrong season for such a film. The actors can't promote the film due to the strikes, and Barbenheimer is sucking up all of the online attention.

To be fair, almost all the promotion with actors is completed and fully edited before the movie opens. And they got all that done for Haunted Mansion before the strike, including marathon interview and photo sessions with the stars at Disneyland a month ago.

Then the studios start rolling out all that promotional material from their big name stars during the first week or two of the film, long after it was actually captured. Like this article from USA Today from this weekend, weeks after the strike started. But the interview shows up freshly ripped from today's headlines as if Jamie Lee Curtis just said this...

'Haunted Mansion' star Tiffany Haddish recalls paranormal encounter that 'messed me up'

Jamie Lee Curtis and Tiffany Haddish talk Disney’s new "Haunted Mansion" movie, from Groupon ghost tours to $3,000 psychic lessons.

www.usatoday.com