Clear indication attendance projections are down

[gmajew]

I have been saying it since the doom and gloom posters started in every thread the economy is soft and slowing down. People are not sure what the election holds and people,are pushing trips until they feel secure again.

All of my companies have seen a slow down this summer.

 

[marni1971]

Why would there be lower inventory available?

It's been a known tactic to make blocks of rooms unavailable in the past. That way the percentage full figure reflects only what is available to book, not what is physically available.

 

[marni1971]

How does everyone leave out Star Wars? Launch Bay is the number #1 reason that we are going to Disney this winter.

Surely you jest.

 

[nor'easter]

How does everyone leave out Star Wars? Launch Bay is the number #1 reason that we are going to Disney this winter.

Really? I guess maybe Disney marketing hype does work. Prepare to be underwhelmed.

 

[21stamps]

I have been saying it since the doom and gloom posters started in every thread the economy is soft and slowing down. People are not sure what the election holds and people,are pushing trips until they feel secure again.

All of my companies have seen a slow down this summer.

Election years are always down in spending. Especially the mess of one this year.

It's been a known tactic to make blocks of rooms unavailable in the past. That way the percentage full figure reflects only what is available to book, not what is physically available.

May be true for December..maybe not. I have a hard time believing that they would turn people away when more inventory is available.

Surely you jest.

Nope.

Really? I guess maybe Disney marketing hype does work. Prepare to be underwhelmed.

Pretty much the majority of my friends and family go annually. From January through summer. Every kid who has returned has talked about the Star Wars stuff, and every time my son asks when we are going. I realize that some adults here like to obsess about what was, but some of us just obsess about what we will do, what our children like, what they find important, and how excited they will be when arrive. HS will be a full day for us, ideally I would like to hop to Epcot if we can, but I'll have to see how it goes.

 

[ParentsOf4]

It's been a known tactic to make blocks of rooms unavailable in the past. That way the percentage full figure reflects only what is available to book, not what is physically available.

It appears that Disney takes hotel rooms seasonally in and out of service primarily to reduce costs, not to manipulate the occupancy rate, at least not the occupancy rate reported in Disney's financial disclosures.

Typically, a room taken out of service for a relatively short period of time has little effect on occupancy calculations. In Disney's case, rooms being renovated or converted to DVC may noticeably affect available room nights reported in its financial disclosures, but seasonal adjustments may not. For example, available room nights declined when rooms at the Polynesian or Wilderness Lodge were converted to DVC.

Let's consider what Disney has reported for available room nights since the start of fiscal year 2013, using the first fiscal quarter of 2013 as the baseline:

With one exception, the available room nights varies by no more that +/- 1.5%. The one exception is the quarter when Disney included an extra business week, something it has to do every few years since the 365-day Leap Year calendar does not line up exactly with the 7-day week.

A common reason to take rooms out of service is to reduce operational costs. The room does not need to be cleaned, air conditioned, etc. Knowing how focused Disney is on margins, it's not at all surprising that Disney seasonally takes rooms out of service to squeeze a few percent out of hotel margins. This can affect the rooms available for you and I to book. However, it generally does not affect the occupancy rate Disney reports in its financial statements.

 

[Soarin' Over Pgh]

It appears that Disney takes hotel rooms seasonally in and out of service primarily to reduce costs, not to manipulate the occupancy rate, at least not the occupancy rate reported in Disney's financial disclosures.

Typically, a room taken out of service for a relatively short period of time has little effect on occupancy calculations. In Disney's case, rooms being renovated or converted to DVC may noticeably affect available room nights reported in its financial disclosures, but seasonal adjustments may not. For example, available room nights declined when rooms at the Polynesian or Wilderness Lodge were converted to DVC.

Let's consider what Disney has reported for available room nights since the start of fiscal year 2013, using the first fiscal quarter of 2013 as a baseline:

View attachment 157651

With one exception, the available room nights varies by no more that +/- 1.5%. The one exception is the quarter when Disney included an extra business week, something it has to do every few years since the 365-day Leap Year calendar does not line up exactly with the 7-day week.

A common reason to take rooms out of service is to reduce operational costs. The room does not need to be cleaned, air conditioned, etc. Knowing how focused Disney is on margins, it's not at all surprising that Disney seasonally takes rooms out of service to squeeze a few percent out of hotel margins. This can affect the rooms available for you and I to book However, it generally does not affect the occupancy rate Disney reports in its financial statements.

I've missed your posts. Please don't leave us again. I was getting worried the Disney mafia got you! (Or offered you a job)

 

[DManRightHere]

Isn't September always a much slower period for Orlando? It can not just be Disney either, Universal lifted their blackout dates for annual passes for most of the summer. We also received Buy 1 Get 1 Half Off dining plan offer for Universal.

 

[Goofyernmost]

Thats glorious. I see you didnt miss the scooter races.

You will note that the guy pushing the double stroller appears to be keeping up with them. I'm thinking that the scooter races are not all that exciting.

 

[WhatJaneSays]

I'm going to be curious about the yearly numbers for 2016 for both WDW and Universal FL when the report comes out. I'm expecting a dip from them both. (I've got a pair of groups at Uni/IoA today and both are reporting very low crowds for this time of year.)

 

[21stamps]

I'm going to be curious about the yearly numbers for 2016 for both WDW and Universal FL when the report comes out. I'm expecting a dip from them both. (I've got a pair of groups at Uni/IoA today and both are reporting very low crowds for this time of year.)

Is this week usually a very busy time?

 

[englanddg]

Is this week usually a very busy time?

No. It isn't. There's a significant drop starting second week of Aug and continuing down until the last week. Mostly due to kids going back to school.

In fact, it's why I always used to target (for the past 6 years) going during the last 2 weeks of August, as my kid goes back later. It is a significant and noticeable difference in crowd levels, and one that the crowd planning sites corroborate.

 

[21stamps]

No. It isn't. There's a significant drop starting second week of Aug and continuing down until the last week. Mostly due to kids going back to school.

In fact, it's why I always used to target (for the past 6 years) going during the last 2 weeks of August, as my kid goes back later. It is a significant and noticeable difference in crowd levels, and one that the crowd planning sites corroborate.

That's what I thought. We went for Labor Day weekend through the next weekend last year. Crowds were higher than I, or anyone there expressed, than we thought they would be. I would imagine this current week would be a "slow" (for Orlando tourism) week though.

 

[WhatJaneSays]

Is this week usually a very busy time?

Not busy but there is often a very slight bump in Universals attendance before Labor Day weekend (I'm guessing its a last run before school starts).

But even Kong is practically a walk on today, there's not even any locals out it looks like. They try to go around now because it's quieter but both groups are saying it "did something happen we didn't know about?" level of quiet today.

 

[Mike S]

Not busy but there is often a very slight bump in Universals attendance before Labor Day weekend (I'm guessing its a last run before school starts).

But even Kong is practically a walk on today, there's not even any locals out it looks like. They try to go around now because it's quieter but both groups are saying it "did something happen we didn't know about?" level of quiet today.

Really? On OU there's someone who posts the wait times every day and I've never seen Kong as a walk on. He does use Uni's app though.

 

[21stamps]

Not busy but there is often a very slight bump in Universals attendance before Labor Day weekend (I'm guessing its a last run before school starts).

But even Kong is practically a walk on today, there's not even any locals out it looks like. They try to go around now because it's quieter but both groups are saying it "did something happen we didn't know about?" level of quiet today.

I'm jealous! That would be awesome! We have season passes to our local theme park, most of the public schools went back 2 weeks ago, but my son just started back yesterday..it was WONDERFUL to be there without any crowds. We went last Wednesday for less than 2 hours and went on 9 rides!!! Now they are closed during the week and we will have to be back to the weekend crowds I love uncrowded parks!!!

 

[WhatJaneSays]

Really? On OU there's someone who posts the wait times every day and I've never seen Kong as a walk on. He does use Uni's app though.

Yeah I've yet to see it under 90 minutes when I've been there. I didn't even know they had an app! I'll have to download it and see how accurate it is next time I'm there.

I'm jealous! That would be awesome! We have season passes to our local theme park, most of the public schools went back 2 weeks ago, but my son just started back yesterday..it was WONDERFUL to be there without any crowds. We went last Wednesday for less than 2 hours and went on 9 rides!!! Now they are closed during the week and we will have to be back to the weekend crowds I love uncrowded parks!!!

I am super jealous. I could have been over there today with them but I was being an adult today and could not. They keep sending me pictures and it's not funny.