It wouldn't make a difference if air was used instead of black powder. The shell goes in the air, breaks and whatever's left comes back down. The paper might dissolve in the water, the rest either just sinks if it is dense enough. Sometimes, a shell doesn't break and drops right back down in to the water.
It's just not practical to put an air launch ystem on small barges that need to be moved in and out of the lagoon on a daily basis. The Inferno Barge was one thing, but even now, the particular shells launched from the Inferno Barge have been moved to the center slip.
It would be extremely expensive and decreases space/capacity on the barges. It really has no benefits aside from the element of surprise of a comet that appears out of nowhere and suddenly "explodes".
The only reason why it's done in California is because of stricter atmospheric condition regulations.
Better reliability is not necessarily true either. An air launched shell has to have 2 electronic matches fastened to its time delay fuse. In case one match doesn't light it, the other should. The shell will launch regardless if the fuse is lit or not since they are independently controlled. This problem is avoided for Epcot's 2 ALF systems since chips are used to detonate the break charge but plagues DL's shows since they can no longer use chips.