Weekend Estimates - Signs Blows Away Competition

[MickeyMoose15]

• 1. Signs --- $60.30 million
  2. Austin Powers in Goldmember --- $32.40
  3. Master of Disguise --- $13.00
  4. Martin Lawrence: Runteldat --- $7.50
  5. Road to Perdition --- $6.63
  6. Stuart Little 2 --- $6.00
  7. Men In Black II --- $4.70
  8. My Big Fat Greek Wedding --- $3.00
  8. K-19: The Widowmaker --- $3.00
  8. The Country Bears --- $3.00

 

[pheneix]

OUCH! Goldmember had a very nasty drop-off this weekend.

 

[MickeyMoose15]

Goldmember is expected to have a drop off of around 55% for this weekend.

Disney had exit polls of Signs and about 90% of the people gave Signs a good or very good rating which is great for word of mouth repeat value. Signs is expected to drop 35% next weekend at the box office even with the arrival of xXx.

 

[pheneix]

>>>Disney had exit polls of Signs<<<

Coincidentally a studio's "exit polls" actually coincide with the real world for a change...

>>>Signs is expected to drop 35% next weekend at the box office even with the arrival of xXx.<<<

I hate to break it to them, but Signs is going to have a much larger drop off. Not only is "xXx" coming out next weekend, but Spy Kids 2 is coming out this Wednesday. That takes care of a large amount of demographics. a 45-50% drop is much more likely.

 

[MickeyMoose15]

Not at all. Signs, xXx, and Spy Kids all play to different audiences. Many believe that xXx will have a huge opening but I don't believe it will. Great word of mouth for Signs will bring many people back to see the film.

 

[pheneix]

>>>Signs, xXx, and Spy Kids all play to different audiences.<<<

Not really...

Signs: just about everyone

xXx: 18-30-something

Spy Kids: 9-14

These are all very high-profile releases, so the fight for #1 should be a close one. I don't think any of these three films will have a monster take next weekend, but rather each of them will bring in around $30 million or so.

 

[james4023464]

spy kids comes out on a wendsday so that will help it out a bit. xxx will only appeal to teens and young adults that will hurt it a bit. Spy Kids will only appeal to the kids, but the kids have to bring there parents so that will help it. And Signs just appeals to everybody except the little tiny youngsters it may be a little scary for them. A little one next to me left the film and never came back he was scared the whole movie.

 

[TURKEY]

Originally posted by MickeyMoose15
Not at all. Signs, xXx, and Spy Kids all play to different audiences. Many believe that xXx will have a huge opening but I don't believe it will. Great word of mouth for Signs will bring many people back to see the film.

I think you're going to see xXx take a good bit of Signs audience. Spy Kids not so much.

It's going to be tough for anyone to have a huge opening weekend with 3 pretty big movies opening (xXx, Spy Kids, Bloodwork). Then with Signs and Goldmember still out there and fairly new.

 

[MickeyMoose15]

Here are my predictions:

1. Signs --- $48 million
2. xXx --- $45 million
3. Spy Kids 2 --- $25 million

 

[Rider]

I wouldn't think the kids who like Spy Kids would like Signs.

 

[MickeyMoose15]

The main audience for the box office is teens and young adults. Remember the weekend that Stuart Little 2 and K-19: The Widowmaker came out. There was no teen or young adult film out so the main movie audience was gone and that hurt the box office. Austin Powers comes in next weekend and the box office is doing better, not great but better.

 

[TURKEY]

Originally posted by MickeyMoose15
Here are my predictions:

1. Signs --- $48 million
2. xXx --- $45 million
3. Spy Kids 2 --- $25 million

Final weekend estimates

1. xXx --$46 million
2. Signs --$30 million
3. Spy Kids --$17 million

Signs has a 50% dropoff.