Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 17 2020
000
WTNT41 KNHC 170833
TCDAT1
Tropical Storm Vicky Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020
500 AM AST Thu Sep 17 2020
Strong upper-level westerly winds associated with the outflow of
Hurricane Teddy continues to rip across the circulation of Vicky.
These very hostile winds aloft are causing Vicky to struggle with
maintaining deep convection, which is quite sheared and limited to
the northeastern quadrant. The latest satellite intensity
estimates range from 25 to 38 kt, and the initial intensity is held
at a possibly generous 35 kt. Since the shear is expected to
remain strong, Vicky is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression
later today, a remnant low by tonight, and dissipate entirely by
the weekend.
The weak storm is moving west-northwestward at 6 kt. A turn to the
west is expected later today, followed by a west-southwest motion
after that until the cyclone dissipates in a couple of days. The
track forecast lies near the various consensus aids.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/0900Z 21.9N 36.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 21.6N 38.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 21.0N 39.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 18/1800Z 20.2N 41.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/0600Z 19.4N 43.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Continue reading...
000
WTNT41 KNHC 170833
TCDAT1
Tropical Storm Vicky Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020
500 AM AST Thu Sep 17 2020
Strong upper-level westerly winds associated with the outflow of
Hurricane Teddy continues to rip across the circulation of Vicky.
These very hostile winds aloft are causing Vicky to struggle with
maintaining deep convection, which is quite sheared and limited to
the northeastern quadrant. The latest satellite intensity
estimates range from 25 to 38 kt, and the initial intensity is held
at a possibly generous 35 kt. Since the shear is expected to
remain strong, Vicky is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression
later today, a remnant low by tonight, and dissipate entirely by
the weekend.
The weak storm is moving west-northwestward at 6 kt. A turn to the
west is expected later today, followed by a west-southwest motion
after that until the cyclone dissipates in a couple of days. The
track forecast lies near the various consensus aids.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/0900Z 21.9N 36.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 21.6N 38.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 21.0N 39.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 18/1800Z 20.2N 41.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/0600Z 19.4N 43.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Continue reading...