Issued at 500 PM AST WED OCT 03 2012
000
WTNT44 KNHC 032033
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 85
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 PM AST WED OCT 03 2012
NADINE HAS BECOME A TIGHT SWIRL DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 40 KNOTS...AND IF NO NEW DEEP
CONVECTIVE CELLS DEVELOP...AS ANTICIPATED...NADINE WILL DE DECLARED
A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE
CYCLONE COULD STILL PRODUCE TROPICAL-STORM- OR GALE-FORCE WINDS AS
IT PASSES NEAR THE AZORES IN ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO.
NADINE IS FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW AROUND A MUCH LARGER
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...AND IT IS RUNNING NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 16
KT AHEAD OF A FAST-APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...AND THEN POST-TROPICAL NADINE
SHOULD BECOME FULLY ABSORBED BY THE SAME LOW WITHIN WHICH IT IS
EMBEDDED.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/2100Z 36.1N 31.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 38.0N 30.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 43.0N 26.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 05/0600Z 46.5N 25.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 05/1800Z 48.0N 25.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 06/1800Z...ABSORBED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Continue reading...
000
WTNT44 KNHC 032033
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 85
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 PM AST WED OCT 03 2012
NADINE HAS BECOME A TIGHT SWIRL DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 40 KNOTS...AND IF NO NEW DEEP
CONVECTIVE CELLS DEVELOP...AS ANTICIPATED...NADINE WILL DE DECLARED
A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE
CYCLONE COULD STILL PRODUCE TROPICAL-STORM- OR GALE-FORCE WINDS AS
IT PASSES NEAR THE AZORES IN ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO.
NADINE IS FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW AROUND A MUCH LARGER
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...AND IT IS RUNNING NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 16
KT AHEAD OF A FAST-APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...AND THEN POST-TROPICAL NADINE
SHOULD BECOME FULLY ABSORBED BY THE SAME LOW WITHIN WHICH IT IS
EMBEDDED.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/2100Z 36.1N 31.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 38.0N 30.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 43.0N 26.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 05/0600Z 46.5N 25.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 05/1800Z 48.0N 25.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 06/1800Z...ABSORBED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Continue reading...