Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 14 2013
000
FONT15 KNHC 140849
PWSAT5
TROPICAL STORM INGRID WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
0900 UTC SAT SEP 14 2013
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 1 2 11 29 NA NA
TROP DEPRESSION 1 4 9 21 36 NA NA
TROPICAL STORM 84 65 53 45 27 NA NA
HURRICANE 15 31 35 24 8 NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 15 28 31 19 6 NA NA
HUR CAT 2 X 2 4 3 2 NA NA
HUR CAT 3 X 1 1 1 1 NA NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 55KT 60KT 65KT 70KT 30KT NA NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12)
GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 7(16) 5(21) X(21) X(21)
GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
LA PESCO MX 34 X 2( 2) 14(16) 18(34) 10(44) X(44) X(44)
LA PESCO MX 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11)
LA PESCO MX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
TAMPICO MX 34 X 4( 4) 18(22) 15(37) 8(45) X(45) X(45)
TAMPICO MX 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) 5(18) X(18) X(18)
TAMPICO MX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
TUXPAN MX 34 X 6( 6) 10(16) 6(22) 5(27) X(27) X(27)
TUXPAN MX 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
TUXPAN MX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
VERACRUZ MX 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
FRONTERA MX 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Continue reading...
000
FONT15 KNHC 140849
PWSAT5
TROPICAL STORM INGRID WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
0900 UTC SAT SEP 14 2013
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 1 2 11 29 NA NA
TROP DEPRESSION 1 4 9 21 36 NA NA
TROPICAL STORM 84 65 53 45 27 NA NA
HURRICANE 15 31 35 24 8 NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 15 28 31 19 6 NA NA
HUR CAT 2 X 2 4 3 2 NA NA
HUR CAT 3 X 1 1 1 1 NA NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 55KT 60KT 65KT 70KT 30KT NA NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12)
GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 7(16) 5(21) X(21) X(21)
GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
LA PESCO MX 34 X 2( 2) 14(16) 18(34) 10(44) X(44) X(44)
LA PESCO MX 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11)
LA PESCO MX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
TAMPICO MX 34 X 4( 4) 18(22) 15(37) 8(45) X(45) X(45)
TAMPICO MX 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) 5(18) X(18) X(18)
TAMPICO MX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
TUXPAN MX 34 X 6( 6) 10(16) 6(22) 5(27) X(27) X(27)
TUXPAN MX 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
TUXPAN MX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
VERACRUZ MX 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
FRONTERA MX 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Continue reading...