Issued at 1000 AM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013
000
WTNT45 KNHC 131459
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
1000 AM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN
SIZE...BUT IT HAS NOT CHANGED VERY MUCH IN ORGANIZATION. A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE...HOWEVER...REPORTED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 45
KNOTS WHEN IT DEPARTED THE CYCLONE...ALONG WITH BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR
WINDS OF 42 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO
40 KNOTS...AND A NAME HAS BEEN ASSIGNED TO THE SYSTEM. THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS QUITE LOW...AND THERE IS A WELL-ESTABLISHED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION. ASSUMING THAT THE SHEAR DECREASES DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS OR SO...THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING.
ALTHOUGH THE NHC 48-HOUR FORECAST CALLS FOR 55 KT...INGRID COULD BE
A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THAT AT LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
A LITTLE BIT ABOVE THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
AS ANTICIPATED...THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD OR MOVING
ERRATICALLY. AS SOON AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
TEXAS...AND WHICH HAS THE CYCLONE TRAPPED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...
SHIFTS EASTWARD...INGRID WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD VERY NEAR THE COAST OF
MEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE HWRF MOVES
THE CYCLONE INLAND IN ABOUT A DAY WHILE THE ECMWF FORECASTS A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK...KEEPING THE CYCLONE OVER WATER LONGER.
EVENTUALLY...ALL MODELS TURN THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO
AND BRING THE CYCLONE INLAND BETWEN 2 AND 3 DAYS.
IT MUST BE EMPHASIZED THAT THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL PRODUCE
TORRENTIAL RAINS. THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THIS CYCLONE IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN
MEXICO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/1500Z 19.4N 95.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 19.5N 95.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 20.5N 95.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 21.3N 96.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 22.0N 97.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 23.0N 99.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 17/1200Z 23.0N 100.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Continue reading...
000
WTNT45 KNHC 131459
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
1000 AM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN
SIZE...BUT IT HAS NOT CHANGED VERY MUCH IN ORGANIZATION. A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE...HOWEVER...REPORTED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 45
KNOTS WHEN IT DEPARTED THE CYCLONE...ALONG WITH BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR
WINDS OF 42 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO
40 KNOTS...AND A NAME HAS BEEN ASSIGNED TO THE SYSTEM. THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS QUITE LOW...AND THERE IS A WELL-ESTABLISHED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION. ASSUMING THAT THE SHEAR DECREASES DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS OR SO...THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING.
ALTHOUGH THE NHC 48-HOUR FORECAST CALLS FOR 55 KT...INGRID COULD BE
A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THAT AT LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
A LITTLE BIT ABOVE THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
AS ANTICIPATED...THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD OR MOVING
ERRATICALLY. AS SOON AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
TEXAS...AND WHICH HAS THE CYCLONE TRAPPED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...
SHIFTS EASTWARD...INGRID WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD VERY NEAR THE COAST OF
MEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE HWRF MOVES
THE CYCLONE INLAND IN ABOUT A DAY WHILE THE ECMWF FORECASTS A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK...KEEPING THE CYCLONE OVER WATER LONGER.
EVENTUALLY...ALL MODELS TURN THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO
AND BRING THE CYCLONE INLAND BETWEN 2 AND 3 DAYS.
IT MUST BE EMPHASIZED THAT THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL PRODUCE
TORRENTIAL RAINS. THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THIS CYCLONE IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN
MEXICO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/1500Z 19.4N 95.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 19.5N 95.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 20.5N 95.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 21.3N 96.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 22.0N 97.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 23.0N 99.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 17/1200Z 23.0N 100.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Continue reading...