Tropical Storm DORIAN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3

[WDWMAGIC News Robot]

Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 24 2013


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FONT14 KNHC 242045
PWSAT4

TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013
2100 UTC WED JUL 24 2013

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME


I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE

CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.


- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -

VALID TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 3 6 5 6 5 7
TROP DEPRESSION 5 22 24 19 22 17 20
TROPICAL STORM 92 71 64 63 59 60 57
HURRICANE 4 4 6 14 13 18 16
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 3 4 5 12 12 15 14
HUR CAT 2 1 X 1 2 1 2 1
HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 45KT 40KT 40KT 45KT 45KT 50KT 50KT


II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

PONCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)

SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)

SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)

SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12)
SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14)
BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)

ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13)
ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8)

AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)

DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)

MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

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