Issued at 1100 AM AST THU OCT 03 2013
000
WTNT41 KNHC 031431
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013
1100 AM AST THU OCT 03 2013
JERRY IS PRODUCING ONLY MEAGER AMOUNTS OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND THAT
CONVECTION IS PRIMARILY RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 30 KT IN AGREEMENT
WITH A DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND
EXPERIENCE INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...CALLS FOR THE
SYSTEM TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY AND DISSIPATE
ENTIRELY BY 96 HOURS. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE
SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE EVEN SOONER.
THE FORWARD SPEED IS GRADUALLY INCREASING AND THE MOTION IS NOW
ABOUT 050/10. NO IMPORTANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK
FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. JERRY SHOULD MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AT A FASTER FORWARD
SPEED...AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH IN THE MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES. AFTER
THE SYSTEM BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...IT IS LIKELY TO SLOW DOWN A BIT
AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC STEERING FLOW.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/1500Z 31.0N 40.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 31.9N 38.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 32.9N 35.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 33.9N 33.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/1200Z 35.2N 31.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/1200Z 38.5N 27.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Continue reading...
000
WTNT41 KNHC 031431
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013
1100 AM AST THU OCT 03 2013
JERRY IS PRODUCING ONLY MEAGER AMOUNTS OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND THAT
CONVECTION IS PRIMARILY RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 30 KT IN AGREEMENT
WITH A DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND
EXPERIENCE INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...CALLS FOR THE
SYSTEM TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY AND DISSIPATE
ENTIRELY BY 96 HOURS. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE
SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE EVEN SOONER.
THE FORWARD SPEED IS GRADUALLY INCREASING AND THE MOTION IS NOW
ABOUT 050/10. NO IMPORTANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK
FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. JERRY SHOULD MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AT A FASTER FORWARD
SPEED...AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH IN THE MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES. AFTER
THE SYSTEM BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...IT IS LIKELY TO SLOW DOWN A BIT
AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC STEERING FLOW.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/1500Z 31.0N 40.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 31.9N 38.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 32.9N 35.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 33.9N 33.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/1200Z 35.2N 31.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/1200Z 38.5N 27.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Continue reading...