Issued at 1000 PM CDT MON SEP 16 2013
000
WTNT45 KNHC 170233
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
1000 PM CDT MON SEP 16 2013
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE BROWNSVILLE TEXAS WSR-88D
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE THAT CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. CLOUD TOPS HAVE
COOLED TO -80C AND COLDER JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND BANDING
FEATURES HAVE BECOME BETTER DEFINED IN BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR
DATA. BASED ON THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE...INGRID IS BEING MAINTAINED
AS A 25-KT DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE CYCLONE SHOULD
GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN AS FRICTION WEAKENS THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD
WHILE THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION GETS DISRUPTED BY THE SIERRA MADRE
ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS...WHICH LIE JUST TO THE WEST OF INGRID.
INGRID HAS SLOWED ITS WESTWARD MOTION AND IS NOW MOVING 270/04 KT.
THE DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS LIKELY DUE TO THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE CIRCULATION OF THE CYCLONE BEGINNING TO PUSH UP AGAINST THE
HIGH SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAIN RANGE. THE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD AT A FASTER SPEED...CAUSING THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION TO DECOUPLE AND MOVE MORE SLOWLY TO THE WEST
OR EVEN TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. INGRID IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN 12 TO 24 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.
INGRID AND ITS REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PRODUCING
TORRENTIAL RAINS ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...ESPECIALLY IN STRONG UPSLOPE REGIONS OF
EASTWARD-FACING MOUNTAIN RANGES TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE CENTER.
THESE RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND
MUD SLIDES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/0300Z 23.7N 99.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
12H 17/1200Z 23.7N 100.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Continue reading...
000
WTNT45 KNHC 170233
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
1000 PM CDT MON SEP 16 2013
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE BROWNSVILLE TEXAS WSR-88D
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE THAT CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. CLOUD TOPS HAVE
COOLED TO -80C AND COLDER JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND BANDING
FEATURES HAVE BECOME BETTER DEFINED IN BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR
DATA. BASED ON THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE...INGRID IS BEING MAINTAINED
AS A 25-KT DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE CYCLONE SHOULD
GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN AS FRICTION WEAKENS THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD
WHILE THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION GETS DISRUPTED BY THE SIERRA MADRE
ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS...WHICH LIE JUST TO THE WEST OF INGRID.
INGRID HAS SLOWED ITS WESTWARD MOTION AND IS NOW MOVING 270/04 KT.
THE DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS LIKELY DUE TO THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE CIRCULATION OF THE CYCLONE BEGINNING TO PUSH UP AGAINST THE
HIGH SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAIN RANGE. THE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD AT A FASTER SPEED...CAUSING THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION TO DECOUPLE AND MOVE MORE SLOWLY TO THE WEST
OR EVEN TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. INGRID IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN 12 TO 24 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.
INGRID AND ITS REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PRODUCING
TORRENTIAL RAINS ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...ESPECIALLY IN STRONG UPSLOPE REGIONS OF
EASTWARD-FACING MOUNTAIN RANGES TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE CENTER.
THESE RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND
MUD SLIDES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/0300Z 23.7N 99.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
12H 17/1200Z 23.7N 100.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Continue reading...