Issued at 500 AM AST THU SEP 19 2013
000
WTNT44 KNHC 190834
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
500 AM AST THU SEP 19 2013
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH HUMBERTO IS LIMITED TO A CLUSTER OF
CELLS LOCATED 100-200 N MI SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE CYCLONE IS
MAINTAINED AS A 30-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT
IT COULD BE CLOSE TO BECOMING POST-TROPICAL. THE GLOBAL MODELS
HAVE ALL TRENDED TOWARDS SHOWING THE SURFACE WIND FIELD OF HUMBERTO
OPENING UP INTO A TROUGH IN 12 TO 24 HOURS...AND IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD DISSIPATE EARLIER THAN WE HAVE BEEN
INDICATING. FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
SHOWS POINTS OUT TO 36 HOURS. IF IT DOES LAST THAT LONG...HUMBERTO
SHOULD ULTIMATELY BE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL ZONE BY 48 HOURS.
A MORE WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CENTER HAS FORMED...BUT THAT NOW PUTS
HUMBERTO ABOUT A DEGREE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES.
REGARDLESS...THE DEPRESSION IS STILL MOVING GENERALLY NORTHWARD
AROUND 7 KT. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED
TO CAUSE HUMBERTO TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE WITHIN 24
HOURS AND THEN MAINTAIN THAT HEADING UNTIL IT IS ABSORBED. THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE
FIRST 24 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ADJUSTED INITIAL POSITION...BUT
OTHERWISE THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/0900Z 33.0N 44.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 34.5N 43.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 36.3N 41.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 38.6N 38.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 21/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT
$$
FORECASTER BERG
Continue reading...
000
WTNT44 KNHC 190834
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
500 AM AST THU SEP 19 2013
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH HUMBERTO IS LIMITED TO A CLUSTER OF
CELLS LOCATED 100-200 N MI SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE CYCLONE IS
MAINTAINED AS A 30-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT
IT COULD BE CLOSE TO BECOMING POST-TROPICAL. THE GLOBAL MODELS
HAVE ALL TRENDED TOWARDS SHOWING THE SURFACE WIND FIELD OF HUMBERTO
OPENING UP INTO A TROUGH IN 12 TO 24 HOURS...AND IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD DISSIPATE EARLIER THAN WE HAVE BEEN
INDICATING. FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
SHOWS POINTS OUT TO 36 HOURS. IF IT DOES LAST THAT LONG...HUMBERTO
SHOULD ULTIMATELY BE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL ZONE BY 48 HOURS.
A MORE WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CENTER HAS FORMED...BUT THAT NOW PUTS
HUMBERTO ABOUT A DEGREE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES.
REGARDLESS...THE DEPRESSION IS STILL MOVING GENERALLY NORTHWARD
AROUND 7 KT. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED
TO CAUSE HUMBERTO TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE WITHIN 24
HOURS AND THEN MAINTAIN THAT HEADING UNTIL IT IS ABSORBED. THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE
FIRST 24 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ADJUSTED INITIAL POSITION...BUT
OTHERWISE THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/0900Z 33.0N 44.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 34.5N 43.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 36.3N 41.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 38.6N 38.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 21/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT
$$
FORECASTER BERG
Continue reading...