TEA Global Attendance Index is out

[lentesta]

The TEA Global Attendance Index is out: https://www.teaconnect.org/form/2024-tea-global-experience-index

 

[JD80]

Easy Reference Numbers:

In case you were curious, recovery from peak attendance in 2019 from COVID (percentage 2024/2019) in the last column.

​

 

[JD80]

Something that we also probably thought was happening, Universal in 2024 had -2.6% attendance at USF and -5.5% at IOA.

The only other park in the top 15 with a loss of attendance was Disneyland Paris.

 

[Dranth]

Interesting. So, Disney was essentially flat from the 2023 numbers despite price increases. Personally, I was expecting it to be down a little, but it will be interesting to see if they can still hold that this year with the growing economic concerns and increased frustration at prices.

Also, I know these are guesstimates but @lentesta or anyone else who talks with folks at the company, can any of you speak to the accuracy and/or precision of these reports?

 

[lentesta]

Also, I know these are guesstimates but @lentesta or anyone else who talks with folks at the company, can any of you speak to the accuracy and/or precision of these reports?

IIRC, Disney's said on quarterly earnings calls that attendance is in those ballparks. So it doesn't feel obviously wrong.

That said, there's been a lot of churn in the groups that put this report out. I'm a little concerned about the loss of institutional knowledge and connections, so I don't yet fully trust the numbers.

 

[JD80]

Interesting. So, Disney was essentially flat from the 2023 numbers despite price increases. Personally, I was expecting it to be down a little, but it will be interesting to see if they can still hold that this year with the growing economic concerns and increased frustration at prices.

Also, I know these are guesstimates but @lentesta or anyone else who talks with folks at the company, can any of you speak to the accuracy and/or precision of these reports?

If you want to look at historical increases vs previous year, last 20 years of data:

 

[JD80]

You can almost map out large spikes of attendance increase vs. previous year to major expansions at the parks. NFL, TSL, Pandora and because of COVID we'll never know the impact of SWGE.

If I had to guess I'd say we would have another similar year in next two years (2026 and 2027 report) until we see Tropical Americas. Similar to the 2008-2011 period, which lined up with another era of economic trouble as well so Disney park investment is not isolated from world events.

 

[Stripes]

Although they are about the same, it’s surprising to me that IOA had lower attendance than USF last year.

 

[bmr1591]

Interesting. So, Disney was essentially flat from the 2023 numbers despite price increases. Personally, I was expecting it to be down a little, but it will be interesting to see if they can still hold that this year with the growing economic concerns and increased frustration at prices.

Also, I know these are guesstimates but @lentesta or anyone else who talks with folks at the company, can any of you speak to the accuracy and/or precision of these reports?

We’ve had growing economic concerns for 5 years now. Until the bottom falls out, I don’t think much will change, attendance-wise.

 

[JD80]

We’ve had growing economic concerns for 5 years now. Until the bottom falls out, I don’t think much will change, attendance-wise.

Guest spend is still increasing. I suspect, at least for 2024 and 2025 numbers, they will be flat because WDW has had no significant additions to the parks since SWGE. All major increases since 2021 are due to a shift in demand because of COVID. You can see the lost of attendance in 2020 slowly spread itself out over the next few years.

 

[Dranth]

We’ve had growing economic concerns for 5 years now. Until the bottom falls out, I don’t think much will change, attendance-wise.

True, but different concerns.

Inflation stunk up the place and certainly caused plenty of issues but we weren't dealing with a stalling job market until the second half of last year. No job is far worse on discretionary spending than increased costs and both is a disaster in the making for a place like theme parks.

 

[donsullivan]

Walt Disney World over the last 20 years

Universal Orlando Last 20 years. (same scale as WDW chart for relative change)

Combined totals of Dry parks at WDW and Universal Orlando. It is interesting to see the year over year declining trend of Universal parks leading into the launch of Epic in 2025

I'm still refreshing some of the other market share trend charts I have.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

The only other park in the top 15 with a loss of attendance was Disneyland Paris.

DLP was impacted by the Olympics last year, and had lower attendance during the summer than usual

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Easy Reference Numbers:
View attachment 889068

In case you were curious, recovery from peak attendance in 2019 from COVID (percentage 2024/2019) in the last column.

​

I never would have guessed that EPCOT would have the best post-COVID recovery...or that AK would be that much lower

But that explains why Tropical Americas is the first to open of these new additions

 

[donsullivan]

Orlando Market Share for Dry Parks

 

[Disney Analyst]

Let’s go Disneyland! So close to beating MK

 

[MarkTwain]

I never would have guessed that EPCOT would have the best post-COVID recovery...or that AK would be that much lower

But that explains why Tropical Americas is the first to open of these new additions

DAK is the most interesting to me here. It's shocking how much momentum it gained pre-Covid with the Pandora/nighttime additions just to fall so hard afterward. A result of it now closing earlier maybe?

 

[JD80]

DAK is the most interesting to me here. It's shocking how much momentum it gained pre-Covid with the Pandora/nighttime additions just to fall so hard afterward. A result of it now closing earlier maybe?

Pandora can't carry a park for a decade.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

…16.5% never recovered without a “recession”

If you can trust those numbers are accurate?

 

[castlecake2.0]

The most attended theme park in the world and still has shuttered shops and restaurants