Issued at 500 PM AST SUN AUG 18 2013
000
WTNT45 KNHC 182032
TCDAT5
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
500 PM AST SUN AUG 18 2013
ERIN HAS LACKED DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN 120 N MI OF ITS CENTER FOR
OVER 12 HOURS...AND NO LONGER QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
THEREFORE...ADVISORIES ARE BEING DISCONTINUED AT THIS TIME. THE
SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE INDICATES VERY DRY LOW- TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC AIR
IN THE PATH OF THE REMNANT LOW WHICH SHOULD DISCOURAGE ATTEMPTS AT
REGENERATION.
THE LOW HAS BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST...OR 260/7...WITHIN
THE TRADEWIND FLOW. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
UNTIL THE CYCLONE LOSES ITS IDENTITY IN A FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NEAR THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUITE.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/2100Z 20.4N 39.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 20.2N 41.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 19/1800Z 20.0N 43.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 20/0600Z 19.7N 45.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 20/1800Z 19.4N 47.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Continue reading...
000
WTNT45 KNHC 182032
TCDAT5
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
500 PM AST SUN AUG 18 2013
ERIN HAS LACKED DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN 120 N MI OF ITS CENTER FOR
OVER 12 HOURS...AND NO LONGER QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
THEREFORE...ADVISORIES ARE BEING DISCONTINUED AT THIS TIME. THE
SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE INDICATES VERY DRY LOW- TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC AIR
IN THE PATH OF THE REMNANT LOW WHICH SHOULD DISCOURAGE ATTEMPTS AT
REGENERATION.
THE LOW HAS BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST...OR 260/7...WITHIN
THE TRADEWIND FLOW. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
UNTIL THE CYCLONE LOSES ITS IDENTITY IN A FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NEAR THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUITE.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/2100Z 20.4N 39.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 20.2N 41.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 19/1800Z 20.0N 43.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 20/0600Z 19.7N 45.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 20/1800Z 19.4N 47.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Continue reading...