Netflix has bigger trouble than some think and Disney should be worried.

[seascape]

I was thinking about Netflix and their projections. They expect to add 2.5 million customers worldwide this quarter. That is just over a 1% increase. Then I look at their projected increase of $200 million or 2.59%. That doesn't sound bad until you think of their 11.18% increase in top rates for North American. Even worse condider the fact that at the end of 2021 Netflix had 75.22 million customers in North America. A $1.00 increase per month, the lowest Netflix added, would add $225.66 million in revenue for the quarter. That means Netflix is saying their will be a drop in the number of customers or a significant lowering of tiers and that ignores other areas that had a rate increase, in North America. Netflix is still over valued even with yesterday's drop.

As for Disney, I hope the conference call has some real hard questions for the company. We need to know more about the numbers of all streaming services they have. That means, how many are the Disney Bundle, and each of the individual services. Also we need actual regional numbers.

 

[Disney Irish]

In reality Disney is in a better position than Netflix long term, and Wall St is starting to agree -

Netflix's Problem Isn't Membership. It's What Disney Has That It Doesn’t - TheStreet

The streaming leader spends a lot more money than Disney, with much less to show for it.

www.thestreet.com

The streaming wars are heating up and Netflix will be the loser long term as more content gets pulled and rehosted on other platforms. Which means it has to outspend all the other streamers on new content just to catch-up, that is a long term losing proposition. Especially when Disney has SOOOO much untapped IP in its own library not to mention from Fox, PLUS all the money they are spending on new content.

Disney is far better off long term than Netflix.

 

[Robbiem]

In reality Disney is in a better position than Netflix long term, and Wall St is starting to agree -

Netflix's Problem Isn't Membership. It's What Disney Has That It Doesn’t - TheStreet

The streaming leader spends a lot more money than Disney, with much less to show for it.

www.thestreet.com

The streaming wars are heating up and Netflix will be the loser long term as more content gets pulled and rehosted on other platforms. Which means it has to outspend all the other streamers on new content just to catch-up, that is a long term losing proposition. Especially when Disney has SOOOO much untapped IP in its own library not to mention from Fox, PLUS all the money they are spending on new content.

Disney is far better off long term than Netflix.

Really interesting article. Longer term I could see Netflix going into some form of partnership with one of the big studios to build a back catalogue and give it a range of IP - perhaps with sony, lionsgate or paramount (if paramount plus fails to take off)

 

[Disney Irish]

Really interesting article. Longer term I could see Netflix going into some form of partnership with one of the big studios to build a back catalogue and give it a range of IP - perhaps with sony, lionsgate or paramount (if paramount plus fails to take off)

Sony already has deals in place with Netflix to stream their movies right after it leaves theaters. After a period of time on Netflix they then leave Netflix and go to D+, I think it might be 12-18 months after leaving theaters.

As for Lionsgate, they look to be trying to get bought at least according to some reports I've seen. I suspect someone like Amazon or Apple may look to buy them, maybe even Disney (though that is really less likely). Amazon overall did just buy MGM, so maybe they aren't ready to buy another studio. Which I guess leaves Apple, and maybe Netflix themselves but they haven't appeared to want to buy anyone. Not to mention that Lionsgate owns Starz who has their own streaming service.

Viacom is suspect won't give up on Paramount+, so that is out.

Netflix does have their own studio, however they aren't pumping out loads of content that they need to catch up to the catalogs of Disney and others. So longer term its still an issue. It'll be interesting to see what happens, but Netflix does have a problem and a huge one if they can't find a way to boost up their own catalog and quick.

 

[Disney Irish]

Well this post didn't age well....

Disney worldwide across its streaming platforms now has 196M subs, which includes an 11.8M increase to D+ alone this quarter. And this is before the launch of D+ in more regions later this year.

At this rate Disney will surpass Netflix in subs worldwide, which currently sits at 222M, by the end of 2022. Disney today did reaffirm its goal of 230-260M worldwide by 2024, but I think they'll blow that out of the water by next year.

 

[seascape]

Well this post didn't age well....

Disney worldwide across its streaming platforms now has 196M subs, which includes an 11.8M increase to D+ alone this quarter. And this is before the launch of D+ in more regions later this year.

At this rate Disney will surpass Netflix in subs worldwide, which currently sits at 222M, by the end of 2022. Disney today did reaffirm its goal of 230-260M worldwide by 2024, but I think they'll blow that out of the water by next year.

I have always expected Disney to win the streaming war. As for my last part of the post, I said Disney needed to breakout their subscribers by region and they did, for the first time. They also broke out RPU. Did they beat expectations? yes. But they still need to look at Netflix and make sure they learn from Neyflix's mistakes. They also need to comeup with a better answer as to why they continue to hold the 230 to 260 million subscriber estimate and be state where they will come from. Does Disney expect to get to 75 million North American customers that Netflix has? What about Europe? Beating Netflix in India by tens of millions paying almost nothing means little, and India is 1/3 of the Disney+ total. If Disney had 75 million North American Customers and 70 million Europeans then it wouldn't matter about India, but they need to grow where Disney+ is over 5 times more expensive.

 

[Disney Irish]

I have always expected Disney to win the streaming war. As for my last part of the post, I said Disney needed to breakout their subscribers by region and they did, for the first time. They also broke out RPU. Did they beat expectations? yes. But they still need to look at Netflix and make sure they learn from Neyflix's mistakes. They also need to comeup with a better answer as to why they continue to hold the 230 to 260 million subscriber estimate and be state where they will come from. Does Disney expect to get to 75 million North American customers that Netflix has? What about Europe? Beating Netflix in India by tens of millions paying almost nothing means little, and India is 1/3 of the Disney+ total. If Disney had 75 million North American Customers and 70 million Europeans then it wouldn't matter about India, but they need to grow where Disney+ is over 5 times more expensive.

Netflix's mistake is they have relied too heavily on the US market to prop up their service for too long, one thing that Disney isn't doing. Also they've relied too much on acquired content, again something that Disney isn't doing.

As for the sub estimates, why do they need to explain it? No company provides explanations on how they come up with their estimates for anything. Also Disney doesn't appear to be relying on any one region, as it keeps expanding D+ to as many regions as it can. So I wouldn't worry about the lower RPU of India long term.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Was not sure where to post this one, but I am super excited about Beverly Hills Cop: Axel F

I cant remember when I got super excited about something that went to Disney+

 

[networkpro]

Was not sure where to post this one, but I am super excited about Beverly Hills Cop: Axel F

I cant remember when I got super excited about something that went to Disney+

Its unfortunate, but D+ is the Film Mouse's dumping ground