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Most Economical DVC Resort to Purchase - Fall 2017
- Thread starter wdwmagic
- Start date
correcaminos
Well-Known Member
Interesting. We bought where we'd want to stay the most (OKW and later PVB) and interesting to see neither is all that bad "economically" as well.
What the chart fails to take into account would be the following:
1. The likelihood of future dues increases. I wouldn't want Vero right now post-hurricane.
2. The number of points needed to stay per night, which also varies dramatically. GF doesn't look good here.
3. The convenience of being near your favorite park instead of spending time at bus stops.
4. Original purchase price. I paid $83 per point at the Boardwalk, now selling for $118, apparently.
5. The likelihood of owning for more than 25 years. I'm 52. Probably not.
6. The demand, if you want to resell. I made money buying and selling Baylake.
7. The ease of booking. Some resorts are hard to book, even at the 11 month window.
8. The size of your family. If you want a 1 bedroom, don't buy Poly.
9. Which park you spend time at, especially at night for the return journey home.
10. If you're water people, the pool area. Beach Club wins, hands down.
Take all that into account, and make a wise decision accordingly. For us, who love Epcot most, who don't need a "view", and who usually want a one bedroom, Boardwalk was our happy choice. The "cost" per night was good, and the ease of getting to our favorite parks was strong. Yeah, I'll be done in 25 years and the dues aren't cheap, but that's what works best for us.
1. The likelihood of future dues increases. I wouldn't want Vero right now post-hurricane.
2. The number of points needed to stay per night, which also varies dramatically. GF doesn't look good here.
3. The convenience of being near your favorite park instead of spending time at bus stops.
4. Original purchase price. I paid $83 per point at the Boardwalk, now selling for $118, apparently.
5. The likelihood of owning for more than 25 years. I'm 52. Probably not.
6. The demand, if you want to resell. I made money buying and selling Baylake.
7. The ease of booking. Some resorts are hard to book, even at the 11 month window.
8. The size of your family. If you want a 1 bedroom, don't buy Poly.
9. Which park you spend time at, especially at night for the return journey home.
10. If you're water people, the pool area. Beach Club wins, hands down.
Take all that into account, and make a wise decision accordingly. For us, who love Epcot most, who don't need a "view", and who usually want a one bedroom, Boardwalk was our happy choice. The "cost" per night was good, and the ease of getting to our favorite parks was strong. Yeah, I'll be done in 25 years and the dues aren't cheap, but that's what works best for us.
wdwhoneymooner
Well-Known Member
It truly is dependent on the factors that a buyer would deem to make them most happy when purchasing a DVC membership. But what sometimes gets forgotten is how future changes within your family dynamics will impact your choice. For example, when our kids were younger we thought AK would be the perfect home resort. But after staying there a couple of times, the place didn’t seem to keep our interest. Beautiful place but the isolation of it all was a big minus for us. Since we enjoy hanging out at the resort as much as we love visiting the parks, we chose BW and don’t regret our decision one bit. Kids are both teenagers now and the resort’s proximity to 2 parks as well as the nightly activities are huge pluses
correcaminos
Well-Known Member
1. First you cannot even begin to guess what resort will go up in MF over the course of the years. I think including that into your idea of cost is not wise long term. I'm saying this as a long term isn't at OKW.
2. That day doesn't matter since your points are good everywhere. You do not need to use VGF only there
3. That's a matter of personal opinion.
4. what did that have to do with it? Honestly I am not following.
5. We've owned for 13 years, so 25 total is nothing to me. Again but sure why that plays into this
6. Same as above. Not ask look to resell later
7. That can be very time specific and resort specific. It cannot apply as a whole to everyone.
8. Not sure I follow this. A studio there how 5. A 1 bedroom where his 4 or 5. Studios can connect for the same point amount as a 1 bedroom at VGF or a 2 bedroom elsewhere but will hold 10 total. The washer and kitchen are personal preferences
9. Same thing as 3, not all like the same
10. That's a matter of preference. We like OKW, Kidani and PVB much better. BC had a lovely quiet pool but we do not love the main pool. It's totally about preference
My suggestion is for you to not care if your favorite rated well on this. It is an interesting read but not meant to say which is the best resort over all. I say buy where you would never mind staying every single trip and not what is the best value
I didn't expect such a vehement response. I don't understand what you're trying to say with some of your comments, but suffice it to say that the original list and analysis is not the full story. Nevertheless, the calculations are indeed one important aspect to look at on a per point basis. Other personal preferences play a role in this as well.
I stand by my remarks, and would point out that older resorts usually have higher maintenance fees, location and convenience are important, family size is a legitimate issue to bring up, and the cost of staying per night is important, etc . . . Sorry if I touched a nerve, somehow, somewhere.
correcaminos
Well-Known Member
Vehement? Touched a nerve? Um, no I just don't think your points go into the idea of the article. You sounded like you were upset that your favorite wasn't rated as well. This wasn't a ranking though. This was mathematically deciding what was a good value. I don't think that should matter when buying though and said as much both posts. Just because someone is curious or disagrees means that they are vehemently against you or upset as you so implied.
I am truly sorry that you misunderstood what I was saying and misread my tone as that was not my intent, I just was trying to figure out some of the points. I noticed some typos from auto correct as well and I apologize for that too. I just went through them all since I was curious about so many. Your ideas should come into play when finding a resort for yourself IMO, but that wasn't what the article was about. Right now financially BWV and BCV are not wise buys... mathematically speaking only.
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Sorry again if my misinterpreted your tone. One of the things that is often pointed out is that you should buy where you want to stay. A major reason for this is simply that some places are filled up at the 7 month window. We're coming down for 10 days around New Years, and by the time the 7 month window opened up, Poly, GF, Baylake and Beach Club were already booked solid. A few isolated days were available, but there was almost no availability anywhere in these resorts for a few days in a row. Sure, the points are good everywhere, but as a practical matter they may be useless anywhere other than your home resort.
Technically, 5 people can stay at many studios, but it gets awfully crowded for longer stays, has no kitchen, has no in-room laundry, and may not be appropriate depending on age and gender of the family members. We also pack along an air mattress for my daughter to sleep on, and there's no room for one in the studios.
Anyhow, the list was nice to see, but obviously every owner has different issues that make their own choice the appropriate one. Plus, depending on when you bought and if you sell, you can actually make money on the deal. If I were to sell my Boardwalk points today, I would not make a "profit", but I would probably have ended up staying for less than $100 per night over the years. To me, liquidation value is always in the back of my mind, but that's just the businessman in me.
correcaminos
Well-Known Member
Oh no worries! Text is hard to read sometimes. I know when doing tablet typing my words aren't always great either (cuz what I type isn't what I meant to get too sometimes lol) It's truly all good on my end
I felt bad you took it so poorly.I completely agree that one should buy where one wants to stay. I don't get it when people buy the cheapest and never like staying there. I mean I stay all over (13 years of ownership) but if I was told I could only stay at my home resorts I'd be thrilled. We often don't travel at the busy times like New Years or F&WF anymore so it's not as hard for us to book at 7 months, but when I want to be at home I want my 11 month priority (OKW for HH area and PVB for 2 studios).
To clarify what I meant about 1 bed vs studio. Is family size isn't the deciding factor as much as what you like. Technically some studios sleep more (though DVC allows you to book). We love doing a 2 connecting studio stay at PVB. Doing laundry is nice, but not necessary. We also don't use a full kitchen, so we get 2 sleeping areas with real beds vs a 1 bedroom with a pullout. It's actually nicer to us than a 1 bedroom. So it's all about what you want there.
I get your point about selling price. We got our OKW for dirt cheap. We'd make money on it now and we've had it 13 years. Our PVB contracts are 50 pointers and we'd come out at a wash maybe or slight loss but we just bought those. We don't intend to sell though
So yes, I completely agree that the list they have isn't great for finding the right home, but it was interesting. We considered adding on at BWV or BCV and I couldn't find the value there for us. We like it, but not love it for staying so moving to another location was best
BCV may not be a great buy now, but considering I paid $82 per point via resale a few years ago, it was a great buy for me. And Ralphlaw I agree with your points about where to purchase. If buying DVC was purely a mathematical decision, I probably would have never bought in. Even "Welcome Home" couldn't get me to buy at today's direct prices.
As long as point values go up, it may be a very good mathematical decision. When I bought in at Baylake years ago, I think I paid about $98 per point. I couldn't sleep our first night there because I felt guilty at the unnecessary square footage and apparent wastefulness of staying in too nice of a place. The miser in me thought it a luxury.
Three years later, I sold our points for a profit at about $120 per point. We had stayed at Baylake, Grand Californian and Boardwalk for a total of about 20 nights. Our dues were a couple thousand dollars, and we had to pay a commission on our sale. I did the math back then and concluded that we stayed literally for less than $10 per night. That's not a typo. Our total "cost" for all those nights ended up being a total of less than $200.
I assume I could do something similar with our Boardwalk points right now. We bought in at Boardwalk three years ago for $79 per point. They are now selling for about $118 per point. For our 300 points, that would be a profit of $11,700. Even with a 10% sales commission, and nearly $2,000 in maintenance fees every year, I probably stayed for several dozen nights at DVC for a profit were I to sell today. According to my calculations, I would literally make a $2,160 profit. Stretched out, DVC would be paying me about $90 per night to stay in roomy deluxe comfort.
Yes, if/when the price drops, the numbers won't be nearly as good. But right now our unrealized profit makes me think I'm doing very well. It certainly beats the rack rate of $500 plus per night of a deluxe resort. And with DVC, we get discounts, a washer & dryer, a nice kitchen, more space, an ownership mystique, and the routine of going just about every year. Another layer has been added to our WDW and DL vacations, and overall I think it has been very good for us.
Put another way, if I hold on to our points for 25 more years and get zero resale, I would have "lost" about $2,000 per year in maintenance fees ($50,000) and my $23,700 purchase price, for a total of $73,500. However, I would have stayed about 250 nights, for about $300 per night. That's not insignificant, but it would be a lot less than the rack rate of $500 +per night right now, and which will only go up and up into the future. Even under that zero return scenario, we would make out okay. Yet, knowing me, I'll probably sell at some point and get a nice return on the investment. So it goes.
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GoofGoof
Premium Member
Keep in mind that the price we all paid years ago doesn't factor into this kind of calculation. The math is intended to determine (based on purely economic terms) which resort would be the best to buy if you were buying resale today and holding your points until they expire. Obviously, things like personal preference on location and theme aren't considered. I think this is a useful exercise for potential buyers who sometimes will only focus on the price per point to determine the best economic decision. In the most extreme example Vero Beach has the lowest resale price per point but is near the bottom of this list.
Right, and will our points be sellable at $200 or $300 per point a few years from now? One can only hope.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
At the rate they increase direct purchase prices... maybe
The resale value is eliminated from the math here by assuming you just own the points until the contract expires. They are just spreading the cost per point paid today over the remaining life which is why the 2042 resorts look worse.
In theory if all other factors were held constant the resale prices should decline to zero as the contract nears expiration. Obviously things aren't held constant (especially direct prices and cash room prices) and we have seen a sharp increase in resale value over the last 5 years. I think we will see a decline eventually when we get 10 to 15 years from 2042. Most people aren't thinking 25+ years out.
correcaminos
Well-Known Member
Direct likely, resale? Not for old ones. Every year the value diminished in a way since they do have a set end time. I don't ever suggest buying to make a profit on it at the end. For us it was all about saving money every year. More upfront costs, but less amount spent over the last 13 years per night.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
Long term this is true. However in the short term it's possible or even likely that the value will go up. Of course it could go down too based on economic factors or loss in overall demand for DVC or even WDW.
Take BLT as an example. In less than 10 years the direct from Disney price for that resort has gone up roughly 65% to $185 a point. If the direct price goes up at a similar rate over the next 10 years direct prices would be north of $300 a point. Even keeping resale around 75% of the direct price gets you to a BLT resale value over $200 a point. BLT will still have 33 years left on the contract in 10 years. We can see now from the 2042 contracts that even with 25 years left the resale price isn't significantly being driven down yet by the limited years remaining.
I think where we may start to see the drop is around 10 to 15 years remaining on the contracts or if Disney started selling direct points at those resorts with an extended end date. Until that time people seem unphased by the shorter contracts especially at popular resorts like BCV.
So what's everyone's opinion of the possibility of Disney offering contract extensions on the resorts that expire in 2042? I know they did this for OKW, but that was an extension with years left on the original contract. I'm curious about when the contracts get down to the 15 though 5 years remaining range. I know Disney can just convert them to cash rooms, but those yearly maintenance dues (guaranteed) do help with the cost of running the resort.
correcaminos
Well-Known Member
To be fair I did say at older resorts
I'm not sure the rates will go up that much in the next 10 years. I've been buying/watching resale for about 15 years now and it's just my guess based on what I've seen for prices. I don't think even BCV or BWV will go that much. Who knows if Star Wars will draw that many but we'll see. It's hard to guess but I don't see resale for those breaking $200 when direct for them is $165 - and yes, you can buy them direct for that now. Only ones that are harder to get are VGF and VGC. The others wouldn't have been an issue to buy direct. The direct price would need to be significantly higher to command a $200 resale price IMO.I won't speculate on the newer ones yet. We will see $200 in direct prices probably sooner than later and we'll have to see what that does to DVC at that point for all the resale prices. I do wonder what seeing a $200+ price will do to buyers though...
correcaminos
Well-Known Member
Slim to none.
The OKW extension was by and large a dismal failure for a slew of reasons. They screwed up on that one in a few ways and I don't see them repeating the mistake. I could see them reselling at the end but not extending.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
I don't know how much the direct prices will go up in the next 10 years but I doubt that Disney won't raise the prices as much as they can get away with. To the question @Ralphlaw posted, I doubt the resale points will sell for $300 any time soon, but it's not out of the realm of possibility that they could get near $200 in a decade. That of course assumes people still want to visit WDW and the economy stays good. There are lots of things that could derail the market but it's possible.To be fair I did say at older resorts
I won't speculate on the newer ones yet. We will see $200 in direct prices probably sooner than later and we'll have to see what that does to DVC at that point for all the resale prices. I do wonder what seeing a $200+ price will do to buyers though...
Direct prices over $200 are probably right around the corner and almost certainly in the next decade. Another factor could be how much of a discount resale points sell for vs direct purchase. If Disney continues to remove benefits from resale buyers the market could definitely drop and the spread between direct and resale could expand.