Yeah after looking into it more the dues are so extreme, I wonder how long it would take to be even with just buying at SSR
You can figure this out fairly easily yourself. Just look at listings that are the same number of points, take the difference in SSR and VB, and divide that by the $4.60 dues difference between the two based on the size of the contract. That would give you a rough timeline. It's not perfect because it assumes dues will change at both by the same pace and I doubt very highly that's true; if VB dues rise slower it pushes the breakeven further out, but if they rise faster it pulls the breakeven up.
Just as a fun thought experiment, the best price I see on VB right now is a 200 point contract at $67/point, for a total of $13,400. The cheapest 200 point SSR contract is $122, for a total of $24,400, a difference of $11,000. At a dues difference of $4.60/point, for 200 points, you're paying $920 more in dues per year for VB. Within 11-12 years, VB is cheaper, but then becomes more expensive - and again, that assumes dues continue to rise at the same pace at both, which is an assumption I don't think makes much sense.
VB had a special assessment from hurricane damage in 2018 that added $0.0619 to everyone's dues that year. Granted, that's not a lot, but it happened once and it could easily happen again. Oddly enough, SSR had a special assessment that year as well, but the amount was much lower because SSR is so many more points and the risk is spread out greater.
And that's just the financial aspect of it - there's always a chance, however small it may be, that you are stuck either going to VB or letting points expire because you are locked out of anything at WDW within 7 months. This will depend greatly on time of year, what you want to book, whether or not you can be flexible with the specific days you want to travel, and how often and diligent you can be about stalking room availability (and to that end, whether or not the website will cooperate with you). Buying SSR and booking it at 11 months just to ensure I have a place to stay exactly on the days I want to travel would be worth a peace-of-mind premium to me.
I think I saw a 150 point contract for around $11,000 which thought it was a steal.
I looked 7 months out from now and pretty much ever resort was available for at least a one bedroom
That is only a good indicator if you regularly plan to travel in June and July. Those are not as popular months for DVC (so availability tends to be better) because it's hot, rooms are more to much more expensive points-wise, it's really hot, it's crazy crowded because of school breaks, and it's so damn hot.