INVEST 99L (to be named Tropical Storm or Hurricane Sara) and possible WDW impacts

[IanDLBZF]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Tue Nov 12 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central and Western Caribbean Sea:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean
Sea are associated with a broad area of low pressure.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form within the next two to three
days while the system moves slowly westward into the western
Caribbean Sea. Afterward, further development is likely while the
disturbance meanders over the western Caribbean Sea through the
weekend. The system is forecast begin moving slowly northwestward
by early next week. Interests across the western and northwestern
Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

 

[Achtzehn]

Oh gosh late season hurricane again…! I think it’s gonna have a pretty similar track to Ian so south of Tampa Bay and Orlando which mean less impact for WDW…

Milton was the most impactful hurricane to hit Orlando since Irma in 2017.

 

[IanDLBZF]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Tue Nov 12 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central and Western Caribbean Sea (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean Sea have become
more organized in associated with a broad area of low pressure.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days
while the system moves slowly westward into the western Caribbean
Sea. Afterward, further development is likely while the disturbance
meanders over the western Caribbean Sea through the weekend. The
system is forecast begin moving slowly northwestward by early next
week. Interests across the western and northwestern Caribbean Sea
should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of
development, heavy rains are expected over Jamaica and portions of
Haiti during the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

 

[IanDLBZF]

Data shows tropical system will develop and could impact Florida next week

The next Atlantic tropical system is looking imminent to develop in the coming days.

www.wftv.com

 

[threvester]

Sweet....my flight out is at 6pm wed 11/20..hopefully this thing fades out like the last one

 

[IanDLBZF]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central and Western Caribbean Sea (AL99):
A broad area of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea
continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the
next day or two while the system moves slowly westward into the
western Caribbean Sea. Afterward, further development is likely
while the disturbance meanders over the western Caribbean Sea
through the weekend. The system is expected to turn slowly
northwestward by early next week. Interests across the western and
northwestern Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this
system. Regardless of development, heavy rains are expected over
Jamaica and the Cayman Islands during the next day or so. For more
information on this system, including gale warnings, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. An Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system
tomorrow morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.


High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Kelly

 

[Disstevefan1]

View attachment 825291

View attachment 825292

THANKS NOW I WANT SPAGHETTI !

 

[Brisco]

Best case scenario if this thing develops would be a hit south of Marco Island like the median (black line) is currently showing. Peak storm surge would be mostly in the wildlife. Could go anywhere though.

 

[IanDLBZF]

From NHC…

NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen, located over the western Caribbean Sea, at 400 PM EST (2100 UTC).

 

[wdwmagic]

 

[John park hopper]

Wow this really late in the hurricane season