I think the analysis is very interesting. And while I agree that net income of over 1 billion looks pretty good to those of us armchair types, i believe it may be necessary to break the picture down a bit.
A big clue as to what is going on with Parks and Resorts was Disney's initial omission of attendance data broken down by park.
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/the-daily-disney/os-disney-parks-attendance-20101207,0,6726204.story
When they finally did respond to requests, we find that while All of the other parks saw significant attendance gains, Walt Disney World likely did not based on other anecdotal data.
Based on that information, I would suspect that the operating ratio in Orlando was much lower that what past experience had been. It seems that overall the parks division may earn 13 cents for every dollar guests spend, I would hazard a guess that the Orlando operation may be half that at best. If that operating ratio is close to 5%, as suspected, the Florida operation is producing about as well as most transportation companies have historically.
Every expenditure is checked and double checked before authorized. Most spending seems to be give the green light if it can offset an expense somewhere else but that doesn't mean it necessarily improves the over all guest experience.
The past two decades Disney was on a spending spree. More of the property is developed now than ever before. With all that development comes the expense of maintenance and redevelopment when the guests become tired or bored for a case in point look at Pleasure Island. There is also the increased labor cost as each new addition required thousands of employees who add to the payroll and benefit categories. You also have increased lawsuits and other less noticeable expenses. Additionally, the cost of energy to run everything from the pretty lights to the busses has gone up considerably.
The guests are spending less, significantly less. Disney used to shy away form discounting but not anymore. They feared it would cheapen their product and lead to difficulty in enacting price increases as they did steadily to offset the spending. Now discounts are everywhere, all the time, to one degree or another.
Another tell tale sign is the Florida annual pass monthly payment plan. They offered it to California residents who visited Disneyland in order to attract a segment of the locals who found the upfront cost too high to purchase a pass. Initially, they weren't concerned until they realized they were missing a segment of guests who would otherwise come to visit and spend more money. They didn't feel the need to do that in Florida at the same time because attendance was robust. Now, here we are some time later and the deal is on for Florida because they need to attract more locals and their pocketbooks.
I appears that Disney has been trying to reign in the costs by outsourcing jobs that guests notice less. The One Disney initiative was a method of removing redundant staffing and obtain more productivity form the ones that remain. They laid off or demoted any number of people in the last management shake up in oder to shore up the bottom line and yet it still may not be enough if people don't start spending at pre-2008 levels again. It also makes any annual price increases less likely based on "our guests continue to tell us they feel they are getting a great value for their dollar". Any price increase is mostly symbolic anyway as many guests don't pay the one day price.
There is concern on everyones face regarding their future at Disney. The hourly cast have a contract dispute that will likely end with them not getting what they want (relevancy of their demands is immaterial to this discussion). Managers get shuffled back and forth form their previous hourly roles to Temporary Assignments and back again until it becomes absolutely necessary to fill a vacancies. Recruitment of new entry level managers from the rank and file has been minimal in the past year. The applicant pools for most areas have not been depleted yet from the last go around. Many positions are filled by Management Interns to hold down costs. Hourly cast positions go unfilled as attrition occurs.
I imagine over the next several years we may see the following changes:
Additional layoffs of office and technical people as jobs are outsourced.
Possible layoffs of management in a new round of streamlining and cost cutting.
The addition of more operating partners so that some of the expense of such operations is removed from the Disney bottom line.
The outsourcing of some of the resorts to flagship Hotel brands in much the same way the Swan and Dolphin work but with better for Disney revenue sharing agreements.
The transportation network, busses, monorails and watercraft being handed over to Reedy Creek to create a more integrated and cost effective transportation model for the property.
These are just some of the possibilities.
In closing, it appears that Walt Disney World may have hit a price point that has diminishing returns. There also may be a saturation occurring due to the amount of development. Walt Disney World, by itself as it has been run for 40 years, may be on the verge of an operating loss without necessary cost reductions and structure changes.
) the maintainance necessary to run 4 theme parks, 2 water parks, DD, the recreation, etc. I'm actually happy and impressed with the the growth and changes. Love 'em or hate 'em, the recent past has seen (or will soon see) the addition of Toy Story Mania, The American Idol Experience, Via Napoli, La Hacienda de San Angel, Star Tours 2, The Fantasyland Expansion, The Art of Animation Resort, Hyperion Wharf...all of these likely costing a few hundred million dollars. Add to that more minor additions (Kim Possible), refurbishments (SSE, SM, HM) and changes (Karamelle-Kuche, Finding Nemo:The Musical, Stormstruck, Sum Of All Thrills) and I like the change and growth.
