Hurricanes catching up with Disney?

speck76

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
LOS ANGELES (CBS.MW) -- The effect of four hurricanes hitting Florida finally may be taking its toll on Walt Disney stock, as the entertainment giant's shares fell Tuesday on concerns of attendance drops.

Analyst David Miller of Sanders Morris Harris issued a note saying there will be some impact on earnings from the barrage of storms that pummeled Florida and the Gulf Coast. Walt Disney World, the company's largest theme park, is based in Orlando, Fla.

A component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Disney (DIS: news, chart, profile) dropped 57 cents, or 2.5 percent, to $22.60. It was the Dow's biggest loser on Tuesday.

Miller lowered his fourth-quarter estimate for Disney earnings to 19 cents a share from 20 cents, saying the first two hurricanes that hit Florida -- Charley and Frances -- seemed to have done little physical damage and did not significantly hurt attendance.

"However, it is now apparent that the eye of Jeanne, the fourth hurricane to hit the state of Florida in six weeks, moved directly over central Florida and forced the Orlando properties into closures that spanned the majority of last weekend," Miller wrote in his note.

The analyst kept his "buy" rating on Disney stock.

Disney executives said they don't give forecasts on quarterly results. "It's premature to give you a financial estimate," spokesman John Spelich added.

However, the entertainment company's chief financial officer, Thomas Staggs, said earlier this month that Frances would reduce earnings by 1 cent a share.

More impact from Frances

Disney says its theme parks were closed longer when Frances hit than when Jeanne struck. Frances forced the closure of Disney World on the Saturday and Sunday before Labor Day, while Jeanne shut down the park on Saturday only.

Analysts polled by Thomson First Call estimate Disney earnings will be 18 cents a share. The consensus hasn't changed since before the storms started.

But analysts say the onslaught is likely to have some impact on the Disney's bottom line.

Jeffrey Logsdon of Harris Nesbitt said local traffic from within Florida could be severely reduced by the storms. That traffic accounts for 30 percent of Disney World's business.

"I think it's bound to play a role," he added.

B__________g the tide is Douglas Mitchelson of Deutsche Bank, who maintained Disney's year-end earnings estimate of $1.07 a share, despite the storms. The company's fiscal year ends Thursday.

Mitchelson also raised his estimate for fiscal 2005 by 5 cents to $1.25 a share. He said losses at ABC will be lower; fundamentals at ESPN are solid, television syndication profits are kicking in and benefits-cost growth at the theme parks is slowing.

"We believe the market continues to carry a negative bias toward Disney's growth prospects, including the perception that the 50-plus percent earnings growth being delivered in fiscal 2004 was driven by unusual items that leave fiscal 2005 with little growth," the analyst wrote.

Roy Disney, Stanley Gold weigh in

In related news, dissident shareholders Roy Disney and Stanley Gold on Tuesday applauded the company's board for saying it would hire an independent research firm to find a replacement for outgoing Chief Executive Michael Eisner.

Eisner, who was stripped of his role as chairman of the entertainment giant in March, has said he will step down in 2006. Roy Disney -- nephew of company namesake and founder Walt Disney -- and his business partner Gold said in a press release that the company's board showed "leadership and independence" by agreeing to hire a search firm.

The two added, however, that they hope Chairman George Mitchell and the board will consider adding two or more independent directors, as suggested by six public pension funds around the U.S.

Such new faces would "reinforce shareholder confidence in the integrity of the search process," Roy Disney and Gold said in a press release.
 

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