Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020
000
WTNT45 KNHC 160838
TCDAT5
Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020
Teddy continues to quickly intensify. The latest satellite images
shows that a ragged eye is present, although microwave images show
it is closed in the low-levels. Satellite intensity estimates
earlier were between 77- 90 kt, and the initial wind speed is set
to 85 with the increasing organization.
The environment appears to be ripe for rapid intensification with
light shear, warm water, and a solid ring present on overnight
37 GHz microwave data. Thus a 30-kt wind increase will be forecast
for the first 24 hours from the 6Z initial wind speed of 80 kt.
After that time, there could be an increase in shear from the
mid-oceanic trough, which should level off the wind speed, along
with possibly an increase in mid-level dry air. At long range,
Teddy could also be affected by the cold wake from Paulette. The
intensity forecast is also uncertain considering the guidance is
still catching up to the higher current intensity, but most
everything shows a large major hurricane for the bulk of the
forecast period, and so does the official forecast.
Teddy is moving northwestward at about 10 kt. A mid-tropospheric
high should steer the hurricane in that general direction and speed
throughout the forecast period until early next week when a turn to
the north-northwest is possible ahead of a mid-latitude trough.
The biggest change to note that guidance has almost unanimously
shifted westward at long range, seemingly due to a stronger central
Atlantic ridge, and the NHC forecast is also moved in that
direction. Unfortunately, this change does increase the threat to
Bermuda, which was just hit by Hurricane Paulette, but remember the
average track error at 5 days is roughly 200 miles.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/0900Z 15.8N 49.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 16.8N 50.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 18.3N 51.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 19.7N 52.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 21.3N 54.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 18/1800Z 22.7N 56.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 24.2N 57.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 20/0600Z 27.5N 62.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 21/0600Z 31.0N 64.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
$$
Forecaster Blake
Continue reading...
000
WTNT45 KNHC 160838
TCDAT5
Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020
Teddy continues to quickly intensify. The latest satellite images
shows that a ragged eye is present, although microwave images show
it is closed in the low-levels. Satellite intensity estimates
earlier were between 77- 90 kt, and the initial wind speed is set
to 85 with the increasing organization.
The environment appears to be ripe for rapid intensification with
light shear, warm water, and a solid ring present on overnight
37 GHz microwave data. Thus a 30-kt wind increase will be forecast
for the first 24 hours from the 6Z initial wind speed of 80 kt.
After that time, there could be an increase in shear from the
mid-oceanic trough, which should level off the wind speed, along
with possibly an increase in mid-level dry air. At long range,
Teddy could also be affected by the cold wake from Paulette. The
intensity forecast is also uncertain considering the guidance is
still catching up to the higher current intensity, but most
everything shows a large major hurricane for the bulk of the
forecast period, and so does the official forecast.
Teddy is moving northwestward at about 10 kt. A mid-tropospheric
high should steer the hurricane in that general direction and speed
throughout the forecast period until early next week when a turn to
the north-northwest is possible ahead of a mid-latitude trough.
The biggest change to note that guidance has almost unanimously
shifted westward at long range, seemingly due to a stronger central
Atlantic ridge, and the NHC forecast is also moved in that
direction. Unfortunately, this change does increase the threat to
Bermuda, which was just hit by Hurricane Paulette, but remember the
average track error at 5 days is roughly 200 miles.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/0900Z 15.8N 49.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 16.8N 50.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 18.3N 51.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 19.7N 52.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 21.3N 54.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 18/1800Z 22.7N 56.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 24.2N 57.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 20/0600Z 27.5N 62.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 21/0600Z 31.0N 64.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
$$
Forecaster Blake
Continue reading...