Hurricane Strike Probability For 2006

[Woody13]

EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND U.S. LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2006

We continue to foresee another very active Atlantic basin tropical cyclone season in 2006. Landfall probabilities for the 2006 hurricane season are well above their long-period averages.​

(as of 4 April 2006)​

By Philip J. Klotzbach[1] and William M. Gray[2]​

with special assistance from William Thorson[3]​

This forecast as well as past forecasts and verifications are available via the World Wide Web at http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts​

Emily Wilmsen and Brad Bohlander, Colorado State University Media Representatives, (970-491-6432) are available to answer various questions about this forecast​

Department of Atmospheric Science
Colorado State University
Fort Collins, CO 80523
Email: amie@atmos.colostate.edu​

​

ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2006​

Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000

Climatology (in parentheses)
Issue Date
6 December 2005
Issue Date
4 April 2006
Named Storms (NS) (9.6)
17
Named Storm Days (NSD) (49.1)
85
Hurricanes (H) (5.9)
9
Hurricane Days (HD) (24.5)
45
Intense Hurricanes (IH) (2.3)
5
Intense Hurricane Days (IHD) (5.0)
13
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) (100%)
195​

​

PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS:

1) Entire U.S. coastline - 81% (average for last century is 52%)

2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 64% (average for last century is 31%)

3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 47% (average for last century is 30%)

4) Above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean

 

[napnet]

Hrm, does not bode well for my cruise in September Unfortunatly where i live hasnt had a 'cane in 22 years... were due!

 

[CAPTAIN HOOK]

Mmmmm - another blustery day

 

[ctwhalerman]

Unfortunatly where i live hasnt had a 'cane in 22 years... were due!

Try not having a major hurricane hit where you live in almost 70 Years! And this when they say that historically we should get one Katrina-like storm every 40-50 years...

 

[napnet]

Try not having a major hurricane hit where you live in almost 70 Years! And this when they say that historically we should get one Katrina-like storm every 40-50 years...

Ha, true, well we were the only part of Florida not effected by a hurricane during 2004 or 2005...