Issued at 500 PM AST SUN OCT 02 2011 000WTNT31 KNHC 022042TCPAT1 BULLETINHURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 41NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011500 PM AST SUN OCT 02 2011 ...CENTER OF OPHELIA EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE AVALONPENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...41.6N 59.9WABOUT 485 MI...785 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLANDMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 33 MPH...54 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS--------------------CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...* THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITORPRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK------------------------------AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WASLOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.9 WEST. OPHELIA ISMOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 33 MPH...54 KM/H. A TURNTOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURNTOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THECENTER OF OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE AVALONPENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THESAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECASTTHROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANESTRENGTH WHEN IT PASSES CLOSE TO THE AVALON PENINSULA. OPHELIA ISFORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SHORTLY AFTER PASSINGSOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROMTHE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260MILES...415 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB...28.47 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND----------------------WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE AVALONPENINSULA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. RAINFALL...OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONSOF 2 TO 3 INCHES OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. NEXT ADVISORY-------------NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$FORECASTER BROWN
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